Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #SILVER
Most recents (24)
We're hearing more and more about how the CRE market could crumble soon, and take down some banks with it.
But what exactly is CRE, what's wrong with it, and why is it so important?
Time for a Credit 🧵👇
But what exactly is CRE, what's wrong with it, and why is it so important?
Time for a Credit 🧵👇
🤓 What is CRE?
First of all, what exactly is the Commercial Real Estate or CRE market, and what are its components?
To keep it simple, the CRE market can be divided into six main sectors:
Office, Retail, Industrial, Multi-Family Property, Hospitality, and Special Purpose.
First of all, what exactly is the Commercial Real Estate or CRE market, and what are its components?
To keep it simple, the CRE market can be divided into six main sectors:
Office, Retail, Industrial, Multi-Family Property, Hospitality, and Special Purpose.
To break it down further:
Offices = urban high-rises or suburban offices/campuses
Retail = shopping centers (strip or regional malls) + stand alone stores or big-boxes, like Home Depot or Krogers
Industrial = warehouses, manufacturing, and distribution centers 👇
Offices = urban high-rises or suburban offices/campuses
Retail = shopping centers (strip or regional malls) + stand alone stores or big-boxes, like Home Depot or Krogers
Industrial = warehouses, manufacturing, and distribution centers 👇
#Commodity sector continues its strong start to June with the Bloomberg Commodity Index trading up 3.5% to a three-week high
Technical perspective: #copper, #gold, #silver are all showing signs of bottoming out with multiple factors adding support (1/5)
home.saxo/content/articl…
Technical perspective: #copper, #gold, #silver are all showing signs of bottoming out with multiple factors adding support (1/5)
home.saxo/content/articl…
Apart from a softer dollar providing a general lift following weeks of strength, we are seeing increased speculation that the Chinese government may step up its support for the economy and some signs that demand is holding up
Overall, the Bloomberg Commodity Index remains down 8% on the year with losses being led by the energy sector, not least a 56% slump in US natural gas, as well as industrial metals suffering from a so far, less commodity intensive post-pandemic recovery in China. 
*Hyperinflation*
With inflation soaring the past two years, this term is being thrown around quite a bit recently.
And people are starting to wonder: Could the USD hyperinflate?
Time for a Currency 🧵👇
With inflation soaring the past two years, this term is being thrown around quite a bit recently.
And people are starting to wonder: Could the USD hyperinflate?
Time for a Currency 🧵👇
🤔 What is hyperinflation?
First, hyperinflation is when a currency experiences extraordinary and accelerating rates of inflation
The currency's value falls so quickly it becomes virtually worthless
So, people resort to using alternative forms of money or bartering.
First, hyperinflation is when a currency experiences extraordinary and accelerating rates of inflation
The currency's value falls so quickly it becomes virtually worthless
So, people resort to using alternative forms of money or bartering.
Though incredibly subjective, the academic definition for hyperinflation is when a country experiences inflation rates above 50% per month. Not before that.
49% = “regular inflation” and 50% = “hyperinflation”
Got it. 🤡
49% = “regular inflation” and 50% = “hyperinflation”
Got it. 🤡
The #silver market has fundamentally changed due to the Mexican gov's anti-mining rules.
First, remember that according to the @SilverInstitute, silver is already in a 24% supply deficit:
First, remember that according to the @SilverInstitute, silver is already in a 24% supply deficit:
So where does supply come from? Mexico.
It's worse than 23% of supply. Most PRIMARY silver mines (not copper mines where you stumble into some silver) are in Mexico.
This is the path the Roman empire went down. Reduce the metal content of the coins ... make the money worthless.
This is late stage empire type of stuff.
None of own enough #gold and #silver.
Get it while you still can.
This is late stage empire type of stuff.
None of own enough #gold and #silver.
Get it while you still can.
Quarters until 1964 were 90% silver and 10% copper.
Quarters now are 91.67% copper and 8.33% nickel.
So now even that is getting too expensive for them and they want to use even cheaper metals to make our coins.
Next step is just all digital, zero metal.
Worthless currency.
Quarters now are 91.67% copper and 8.33% nickel.
So now even that is getting too expensive for them and they want to use even cheaper metals to make our coins.
Next step is just all digital, zero metal.
Worthless currency.
The White House insists, ‘no’, the Fed muses, ‘maybe’, and bond markets say, ‘yes’
But who's right? Are we headed for a recession or not?
Time for a macro 🧵👇
But who's right? Are we headed for a recession or not?
Time for a macro 🧵👇
🧐 What is a Recession?
Let’s start with the basics, shall we?
What is a recession, and before predicting any, how can we tell that we are, in fact, in one?
Let’s start with the basics, shall we?
What is a recession, and before predicting any, how can we tell that we are, in fact, in one?
Well, using various economic definitions and descriptions, a recession is simply a period of economic decline lasting at least six months
Indicators of a recession include:
• a decrease in GDP,
• rising unemployment,
• and reduced spending by consumers and businesses.
Indicators of a recession include:
• a decrease in GDP,
• rising unemployment,
• and reduced spending by consumers and businesses.
It's impossible to retweet this too many times.
- The #RoadOfDeath And a #DarkPlace | Apr 8
@POTUS @vonderleyen @ZelenskyyUa
- The #RoadOfDeath And a #DarkPlace | Apr 8
@POTUS @vonderleyen @ZelenskyyUa
@POTUS @vonderleyen @ZelenskyyUa #Rand Co | Jan 25
- 'The key objective described in the doc is to #divide #EU by placing #UsefulIdiots in political positions in order to stop #Russian #energy supplies from reaching the continent'
- The entire #EU #economy will #collapse
- 'The key objective described in the doc is to #divide #EU by placing #UsefulIdiots in political positions in order to stop #Russian #energy supplies from reaching the continent'
- The entire #EU #economy will #collapse
2016 | This #silver rhyton discovered at #Deylaman, Northern #Iran. The inscription as well as leading art #historians identify the #artefact as representing #Durga #Mahishasuramardini
Interestingly, it gives new insights into the high-quality production of silver icons
Interestingly, it gives new insights into the high-quality production of silver icons
Its provenance is taken to be in Eastern #Afghanistan It was looted during the #Arab #Muslim raids on #Shahi and #Zunbil kingdoms of South Eastern Afghanistan in the latter half of seventh century. Its provenance beyond the #Hindu Kush is not surprising as #archaeology attests to
Its provenance is taken to be in Eastern #Afghanistan It was looted during the #Arab #Muslim raids on #Shahi and #Zunbil kingdoms of South Eastern Afghanistan in the latter half of seventh century. Its provenance beyond the #Hindu Kush is not surprising as #archaeology attests to
THREAD 🧵COT DATAS RELEASED !!!
1- EURO FUTURES #EURUSD
Net positions of commercials is ranging, while open interest rises, which indicates they predominantly open positions compared to closing contracts. Also, opened long and short contracts are equal, in terms of amount.
1/9
1- EURO FUTURES #EURUSD
Net positions of commercials is ranging, while open interest rises, which indicates they predominantly open positions compared to closing contracts. Also, opened long and short contracts are equal, in terms of amount.
1/9
We observe huge drop in open interest, during consolidation market, as the net positions of commercial were increasing. This is cleary seen in the blue box.
2/9
2/9
Huge drop (15% or more) in open interest during consolidation market is the big indication of where smart money reset themselves, in terms of hedging programs. SMT inbetween them robustly supports this idea. Meaning that FX is verye likely bullish, till the next quarter
3/9
3/9
Another Fed Meeting, another decision based on flawed metrics. One of them is the new CPI. Or shall I say the *New New CPI*?
Because the calculation has been sneakily adjusted again recently, and yes, it matters. Why and how?
Time for an inflation 🧵👇
Because the calculation has been sneakily adjusted again recently, and yes, it matters. Why and how?
Time for an inflation 🧵👇
🧐 Current CPI
First, for those who are new to the whole Fed Shell Game, or if you need a little refresher, a quick review of CPI:
The Consumer Price Index, also known as CPI, is the benchmark for U.S. inflation as calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (the BLS).
First, for those who are new to the whole Fed Shell Game, or if you need a little refresher, a quick review of CPI:
The Consumer Price Index, also known as CPI, is the benchmark for U.S. inflation as calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (the BLS).
You may have noticed recent controversy about the accuracy of the CPI and whether the BLS is understating inflation
People ask every time a new CPI reading is released: how can the prices of groceries, cars, houses, be so inflated, yet the CPI rises only a fraction of that?
People ask every time a new CPI reading is released: how can the prices of groceries, cars, houses, be so inflated, yet the CPI rises only a fraction of that?
Continues to blow my mind how ST people are. #gold now very overbought/extended while up 1.5% w/#silver & $GDX down 7% last 6 wks.
Puts far from getting "crushed" despite this move. Not seeing any reason to exit or go long, based on my time horizon.
And #FOMC next wk. Patience/
Puts far from getting "crushed" despite this move. Not seeing any reason to exit or go long, based on my time horizon.
And #FOMC next wk. Patience/
Meantime, I'll let the gold bugs gloat at my expense. Lord knows they don't get to do it often. Have a few days of fun amidst last 2yrs of losses.
Some context, $GDX/ $GLD couldn't make a close above where it was just 2 days ago. 1 day is not a trend, zoom out & look at the avg/
Some context, $GDX/ $GLD couldn't make a close above where it was just 2 days ago. 1 day is not a trend, zoom out & look at the avg/
#Biden backs strength of #banking system after collapse of #SVB, #SignatureBank | Mar 13
- When fed auths bailed out depositors in insolvent lenders SVB (NASDAQ:SIVB) and #SignatureBank on Monday,
Joe sought to reassure the public
richtv.io/?p=245301
- When fed auths bailed out depositors in insolvent lenders SVB (NASDAQ:SIVB) and #SignatureBank on Monday,
Joe sought to reassure the public
richtv.io/?p=245301
#Ukraine-#BanderasBox opened.
#RAND Co | Jan 25
- There is an urgent need for #resources to flow into the national econ, especially the #banking system. Only European countries bound by #EU and #NATO commitments will be able to provide them
#RAND Co | Jan 25
- There is an urgent need for #resources to flow into the national econ, especially the #banking system. Only European countries bound by #EU and #NATO commitments will be able to provide them
#SVB #SignatureBank #BanderasBox.
#Rand Co | Jan 25
- The key objective is to #divide #EU by placing #UsefulIdiots in political positions in order to stop #Russian #energy supplies from reaching the continent
- The entire #EU #economy will #collapse
#Rand Co | Jan 25
- The key objective is to #divide #EU by placing #UsefulIdiots in political positions in order to stop #Russian #energy supplies from reaching the continent
- The entire #EU #economy will #collapse
🗓 Daily #Macro & Market Recap 📰 Let's dive into a quick thread recapping some of today's market moving events 🗞, data 📝, & charts 📈📉 for Friday (03/03/23)… 🧵/👇🏼
$SPY $SPX ⬆️✅
$QQQ $NDX ⬆️✅
$DIA $DJIA ⬆️✅
$IWM $RUT ⬆️✅
#stocks #StockMarket #bonds #macro
$SPY $SPX ⬆️✅
$QQQ $NDX ⬆️✅
$DIA $DJIA ⬆️✅
$IWM $RUT ⬆️✅
#stocks #StockMarket #bonds #macro
1/🧵 Daily #StockMarket Sector Performance:
🍽 $XLP ⬆️✅
🏥 $XLV ⬆️✅
🏘 $XLRE ⬆️✅
📡 $XLC ⬆️✅
🛢 $XLE ⬆️✅
🏭 $XLI ⬆️✅
🤖 $XLK ⬆️✅
🏨 $XLY ⬆️✅
🏦 $XLF ⬆️✅
🪵 $XLB ⬆️✅
⚡️ $XLU ⬆️✅
🍽 $XLP ⬆️✅
🏥 $XLV ⬆️✅
🏘 $XLRE ⬆️✅
📡 $XLC ⬆️✅
🛢 $XLE ⬆️✅
🏭 $XLI ⬆️✅
🤖 $XLK ⬆️✅
🏨 $XLY ⬆️✅
🏦 $XLF ⬆️✅
🪵 $XLB ⬆️✅
⚡️ $XLU ⬆️✅
2/🧵 Daily 🇺🇸 🏦 Treasury Market & Currency Performance: 💵💴💶💷
$DXY ⬆️✅
$TLT ⬆️✅
$HYG ⬆️✅
3mo ⬆️✅
2yr ⬇️🔻
10yr ⬆️✅
30yr ⬆️✅
#bonds #interestrates #Currencies #macro
$DXY ⬆️✅
$TLT ⬆️✅
$HYG ⬆️✅
3mo ⬆️✅
2yr ⬇️🔻
10yr ⬆️✅
30yr ⬆️✅
#bonds #interestrates #Currencies #macro
Thought of the day: Return compounding is all about timeframes in #cyclicals, 10x over 5 years reinvested in 10x over 5 years reinvested in 10x over 5 years with 1-2 year waiting between reinvestment = 1000x over 17-19 years. Are you formulating your compounding plan?
Our working example:
$BTU from $1.21 = 13x < 30 months
deployed into:
$IREN from $1.32 = expect 10x over 48 months
deployed into:
Unknown at this time = 8x
Total return = >1000x
$BTU from $1.21 = 13x < 30 months
deployed into:
$IREN from $1.32 = expect 10x over 48 months
deployed into:
Unknown at this time = 8x
Total return = >1000x
Documented is previous tweets
A bear market can be a confusing and challenging time for #CryptoInvestor. In this thread, we'll explore the definition of a #bearmarket in the crypto world and how to invest during one. $BTC $ETH $QUACK #Cryptos
🧵👇
🧵👇
1/10 Definition: A bear market in crypto is a period of declining crypto prices, typically lasting several months to a few years. It's called a "bear market" because bears tend to attack downward. $QUACK
2/10 Why do bear markets happen in crypto? Bear markets in crypto are often triggered by economic downturns, market corrections, or negative news and sentiment. $QUACK
As #silver sentiment collapses again and the equities have been left for dead, let's look at the big picture.
#silver is a supply deficit play. 3 things to know:
1) 73% of mined silver is a byproduct of copper/zinc/lead/gold. CapEx is declining in 2023. /1
#silver is a supply deficit play. 3 things to know:
1) 73% of mined silver is a byproduct of copper/zinc/lead/gold. CapEx is declining in 2023. /1
In other words, the companies producing silver don't care about silver. There won't be a supply response to higher silver demand.
Also, there are very few primary silver miners as AISC is about $20 and high-quality deposits are very rare. /2
Also, there are very few primary silver miners as AISC is about $20 and high-quality deposits are very rare. /2
As a result, silver supply peaked in 2016, driven by the 2010-2013 metals CapEx binge.
(Data from SilverInsititute) /3
(Data from SilverInsititute) /3
Whether you like it or not, we're in an #economic #reset & nothing can stop it
The #macro chart of the #USA #economy reveals a crucial insight everyone should pay attention to
US #GDP & M2 money supply in #USD tn
Read on...
#tradingview chart👉bit.ly/3IwTBrt
1/🧵
The #macro chart of the #USA #economy reveals a crucial insight everyone should pay attention to
US #GDP & M2 money supply in #USD tn
Read on...
#tradingview chart👉bit.ly/3IwTBrt
1/🧵
Untill 2011, money supply M2 consistently remained below 60% of #GDP
#Growth in M2 kept pace with GDP growth
Enabling low #inflation secular growth #economy
Despite popular #fintwit narrative, even GFC of 2008 did not upset M2 GDP⚖️balance
This is what GFC did...
2/🧵
#Growth in M2 kept pace with GDP growth
Enabling low #inflation secular growth #economy
Despite popular #fintwit narrative, even GFC of 2008 did not upset M2 GDP⚖️balance
This is what GFC did...
2/🧵
1/ #srebro #silver
Na zachowywanie się cenowe srebra w 2022 r. można spojrzeć dwojako. Jeżeli zrobić to w kontekście rozdmuchanych nadziei od Wall Street Bets (Zniszczyć Comex) i wszystkich survivalistów którzy chcą płacić srebrem po "nieuchronnym załamaniu systemu finansowego"
Na zachowywanie się cenowe srebra w 2022 r. można spojrzeć dwojako. Jeżeli zrobić to w kontekście rozdmuchanych nadziei od Wall Street Bets (Zniszczyć Comex) i wszystkich survivalistów którzy chcą płacić srebrem po "nieuchronnym załamaniu systemu finansowego"
2/
no to tak... najgorsze są wybujałe i niespełnione nadzieje.
Jeżeli spojrzeć okiem traderskim, no to na ruchach srebra można było zarobić. Aprecjacja w H1, potem spadki Maj-Listopad i wzrosty sezonowe od Listopada. A jeżeli spojrzeć przez pryzmat długiego terminu no to cena
no to tak... najgorsze są wybujałe i niespełnione nadzieje.
Jeżeli spojrzeć okiem traderskim, no to na ruchach srebra można było zarobić. Aprecjacja w H1, potem spadki Maj-Listopad i wzrosty sezonowe od Listopada. A jeżeli spojrzeć przez pryzmat długiego terminu no to cena
3/
mogła zawieść. Nie ukrywajmy - w perspektywie r/r nie było dużych zmian. W perspektywie r/r inne aktywa dały zarobić - jak choćby pompa na soku pomarańczowym. Ale dla hodlerów srebra i złota, chyba jednak inne parametry czasowe mają znaczenie...
Jak srebro poradziło sobie
mogła zawieść. Nie ukrywajmy - w perspektywie r/r nie było dużych zmian. W perspektywie r/r inne aktywa dały zarobić - jak choćby pompa na soku pomarańczowym. Ale dla hodlerów srebra i złota, chyba jednak inne parametry czasowe mają znaczenie...
Jak srebro poradziło sobie
He's often called Canada's Warren Buffett
Jimmy Pattison is a shrewd CEO & value investor who built a $16 BILLION fortune (Forbes)
But, Jimmy made & lost a killing in the #silver market, turning $25K to $78M in a few yrs before losing it all in a few months
Or so he thought🧵:
Jimmy Pattison is a shrewd CEO & value investor who built a $16 BILLION fortune (Forbes)
But, Jimmy made & lost a killing in the #silver market, turning $25K to $78M in a few yrs before losing it all in a few months
Or so he thought🧵:
There's a joke in mining that if goldbugs are crazy, then silver enthusiasts are truly deranged.
The boldest silver investors ever were oil billionaire brothers, Nelson Bunker and William Herbert Hunt, who tried to corner the market in the late '70s as a hedge against inflation.
The boldest silver investors ever were oil billionaire brothers, Nelson Bunker and William Herbert Hunt, who tried to corner the market in the late '70s as a hedge against inflation.
This sent silver prices soaring from $6 per ounce a year earlier to $50 per ounce in January 1980. However, the US government stepped in and the market crashed quickly. The Hunt Brothers lost an estimated $1.75 billion and faced numerous lawsuits and legal battles.
This is a 🧵 on my campaign for President of the United States (Republican).
I am heavily shadowbanned and encourage you to turn on notifications and share this tweet 1/n
We have 12-36 months to halt a globalist takeover of America.
#Day2024
I am heavily shadowbanned and encourage you to turn on notifications and share this tweet 1/n
We have 12-36 months to halt a globalist takeover of America.
#Day2024
2/n
When @realDonaldTrump borrowed Ronald Reagan’s MAGA tagline, I thought we might get Reagan’s 1984. Instead we got Orwell’s.
#Day2024
When @realDonaldTrump borrowed Ronald Reagan’s MAGA tagline, I thought we might get Reagan’s 1984. Instead we got Orwell’s.
#Day2024
(1/16) Today again a more theoretical thread about #Germanic #history. It is about a theory of the origin of the first Germanic major #tribes:
the #Iron and #Amber theory!
(Many used images are from external sources, which I will gladly share if needed.)
the #Iron and #Amber theory!
(Many used images are from external sources, which I will gladly share if needed.)
Two years ago on 1/27/21 I posted my #silversqueeze post on Wallstreetbets
It was a Wednesday night in the middle of the GameStop controversy
Four days later #silver was squeezing
Robinhood banned buying of PSLV
A few days later $SLV changed their prospectus
Crazy times
It was a Wednesday night in the middle of the GameStop controversy
Four days later #silver was squeezing
Robinhood banned buying of PSLV
A few days later $SLV changed their prospectus
Crazy times
2 months later the #LBMA admitted they over represented their inventories by 110m ounces of silver
A month after that they released a report saying they came roughly 2 weeks from running out of silver
@CFTCbehnam admitted they “had to tamp down” the silver run up
A month after that they released a report saying they came roughly 2 weeks from running out of silver
@CFTCbehnam admitted they “had to tamp down” the silver run up
Jeff Currie of Goldman went on CNBC and Bloomberg saying there was no risk of running out of silver and that 50 billion ounces were available
A massive misrepresentation when the LBMA came within a couple hundred million ounces of running out
A massive misrepresentation when the LBMA came within a couple hundred million ounces of running out
1/Why are #gold and #silver inventory levels at the #Comex continually declining?
Is it due to overwhelming physical demand? If so, why are premiums on physical products collapsing?
Likewise, if demand is falling, why are prices rising?
Let’s dig in…..
Is it due to overwhelming physical demand? If so, why are premiums on physical products collapsing?
Likewise, if demand is falling, why are prices rising?
Let’s dig in…..
2/Gold and silver demand has been strong throughout 2022. Futures action on global exchanges has seen large buyers in early 2023. This has forced prices higher. With prices higher, we have seen a noticeable slowdown for physical products.
3/With the addition of new 2023 dated coins, this over supply has collapsed premiums. There is no shortage at the moment of physical inventory.
1) Total global ETF holdings of #gold has gone sideways despite gold +19% since early Nov.
System akin to compressed spring. Less pressure?
Spring bounces.
Δ largely $GLD driven. What if US investors traders actually buy?
1 more chart today.
$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GDX #Commodities
System akin to compressed spring. Less pressure?
Spring bounces.
Δ largely $GLD driven. What if US investors traders actually buy?
1 more chart today.
$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GDX #Commodities
2) Cost of $SLV puts vs calls (3M 25 delta) 10D MA not budging despite #silver +33% in several M.
Incredible (to me). And never happened in history of this data.
Whenever silver rose as much since '15 secular low, cost of calls shifted ~8-10 (implied ...
Incredible (to me). And never happened in history of this data.
Whenever silver rose as much since '15 secular low, cost of calls shifted ~8-10 (implied ...
3) vol) points higher than cost of puts.
Even smaller rallies (Mar '16 Apr '20 Nov '21 etc) produced a big shift of > 4 points wrt cost of calls vs puts.
So this one time we (options traders) refuse to fall for it and pay up for calls.
Anyways physical analogies are not ...
Even smaller rallies (Mar '16 Apr '20 Nov '21 etc) produced a big shift of > 4 points wrt cost of calls vs puts.
So this one time we (options traders) refuse to fall for it and pay up for calls.
Anyways physical analogies are not ...
