Thread by @ZiadFazel

#COVID19AB Balanced Scorecard
Mon 27 Sep

If you remember my hurricane analogy from yesterday, today we emerged from a weekend without communications from Alberta Health.

There was no sunshine. No respite between bands. Only the 250 km/h eyewall.

@jvipondmd @GosiaGasperoPhD @RajBhardwajMD @TehseenLadha @drdagly @plasercalgary @GermHunterMD @kwburak @PfParks @dupuisj Test Positivity

4th Wave was unusual as Test Positivity was a steep, unhesitating rise.

⬆️not 📈

We have seen that frightening line with Delta all over the world.

Researchers sometimes change their graph to log scale and are shocked to still see it.

covid-tracker.chi-csm.ca

When Test Positivity stuttered in September, then peaked in mid-September (urban mask mandates & restrictions) experts with @PopAlberta kept warning of danger.

My analogy then was a 1000-km wide wildfire at 80 km/h.

Because there weren't strong province-wide safety measures.

So while Test Positivity in Calgary & Edmonton was:
• falling below 10%
• dragging down the provincial average
• masking the choppy rise in North, Central & South.

I remembered @GosiaGasperoPhD warning of (early) exponential growth of B117 Alpha in Jan, and Delta in May.

I'm just talking about leading indicators here: Test Positivity and New Cases.

We always knew the back half of the canoe - Hospitalization, ICU and Deaths- was still rising the roller coaster.

Canoes, Rollercoasters, Wildfires, Hurricanes... sorry about all the metaphors.

Looking again at the @ucalgaryCHI chart, notice how in all 3 previous waves, test positivity would stutter, maybe retreat a bit, and then keep rising.

4th Wave didn't get that, rising without a break from ~0.5% to 11%.

Our CMOH & Premier were beholden to their secret models.

Even India - hit so badly by the Delta variant images of people dying outside hospitals short of oxygen or ventilators - got back under some control.

Not Alberta. We plowed ahead, benchmarking to the worst decisions in the US and UK to cover our own.

coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases

So where does that leave us after the weekend?
• 29 new admissions to ICU*
• 23 deaths
• 265 people fighting for life in ICU

* 17% of baseline capacity in 1 weekend.
• From 1 cause
• We're not into flu season yet
• And have a long weekend coming

public.tableau.com/app/profile/jk…

Remember this graph from the 3rd-Wave presser? Where @AHS_media Dr Yiu said pre-covid record for a respiratory virus was 31 cases in 2016?

We just admitted 29 people into ICU. 1 weekend.

Alberta is in a hypnotic state. We don't realize how sadistically we are being treated.

Vaccinations.

Looks impressive, huh? That upswing in the last month?

Remove the 3rd doses, which are largely happening in continuing care for the elderly & most vulnerable.

Zoom in some more.

Upswing over. Fizzling out again.

What did GoA do in Sep to stop spread?

Predictably useless $100 incentive that had no effect but to divide Albertans.

alberta.ca/release.cfm?xI…

Bait-and-Switch "Capacity Increase" that was only a $36m taxpayer subsidy to private group homes & home care.

alberta.ca/release.cfm?xI…

This gratuitously frightening, dog vomit of a presser on Wed 15 Sep:
• measures effective at midnight
• Health Min reading Kenmore Canister Vac model 1407 Owner Manual into his chin
• 8pm emergency alert on our phones with link to useless website

alberta.ca/release.cfm?xI…

This meeting of Calgary Metro Region Board on 17 Sep was lauded for Mayor Nenshi response to the Foothills County Reeve's persistence at spreading ant-vax "bs".

(Nice diplomatic work by Chair @GregClarkAB too, trying to stay on topic and on fact.)

livewirecalgary.com/2021/09/24/lie…

The hidden value in that meeting was the metro area board trying to fix the dog-vomit from GoA two nights before:
• leverage Calgary efforts including great Q&A
• High River Mayor Snodgrass blasting GoA for putting his town's businesspeople in danger

8 days ago, this psychiatrist/neurosurgeon in UK wrote "how do you convince people that the people in power actually want them to die?"

See @jvipondmd #intentionallycruelwave or @DuaneBratt "self-inflicted"

IMHO: It's not incompetence; it's intent.

https://twitter.com/HZiauddeen/status/1439730298930012161?s=20

Thanks all, who read all this way as I built the long thread this evening.

Be good to each other. Protect yourself. As much as you can, behave as if there is a hard lockdown.

This is going to be like Italy or New York in Spring 2020.

@threadreaderapp unroll please