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dolphin_dane Profile picture
@dolphin_dane
Aug 1 โ€ข 50 tweets โ€ข 23 min read โ€ข Read on X
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EUROVISION 2020 "WHAT IF?" SIMULATION RESULTS - A Thread ๐Ÿงต๐Ÿ“Š๐ŸŽถ
Image
The results of my "What If?" 2020 prediction survey are here. After receiving eurofans assessments of all 2020 entries' jury and televote potentials, these results were fed to a model simulating the contest 100000 times. These are the average results of the simulations
While this methodology sounds simple, it managed to produce more accurate results than the odds for the 2024 contest. Thus I feel like these results serve as an accurate representation of our "collective wisdom" on the 2020 contest
SEMI 1:
Of the two semis, semi 1 by far has the safest set of 10 qualifiers, with a major gap between 10th and 11th. While Australia is a top 10 jury song in the average results, it is not enough to consistently qualify. Thus the 10 most likely Q's are:
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ
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Image
SEMI 2:
Beyond a very safe top 3, this semi is much more open, with a very small gap between 10th and 11th. While ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น and ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป don't qualify in the average results, they still manage to reach top 10 for jury and tele respectively. The 10 most likely Q's are:
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฑ
Image
Image
FINAL:
Taking the 10 most likely qualifiers from each semi, this is what the average final looks like. It is important to remember that these are averages, and individual simulations see countries having bigger highs and lows. Something like the quadruple 0 is not impossible here Image
Looking at overall winning chances, 2020 seems to have been a race between the two frontrunners of Iceland and Italy, with Switzerland close behind and a handful of others as dark horses. Let's now look into each of the 41 entries' chances, and how you rated them in the survey
Before we get into each country, I would like to plug my 2025 signup survey. I plan on doing similar survey/simulation experiments throughout the 2025 NF/ESC season. By signing up here, you will get the surveys send directly, as well as the sim results
forms.gle/u9GN5vow985iq3โ€ฆ
Iceland:
Daรฐi og Gagnamagniรฐ - Think About Things

Tele-power: 91.3
Jury-power: 81.1

Qualification: 100%
Top 10: 99.9%
Top 5: 91.7%
Top 3: 73%
Winner: 31.2%
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Italy:
Diodato - Fai rumore

Tele-power: 80.4
Jury-power: 90.2

Top 10: 99.8%
Top 5: 90.1%
Top 3: 70.9%
Winner: 28.7%
Image
Image
Switzerland:
Gjon's Tears - Rรฉpondez-moi

Tele-power: 73.2
Jury-power: 91.7

Qualification: 100%
Top 10: 98.8%
Top 5: 78.6%
Top 3: 52.8%
Winner: 17%
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Bulgaria:
Victoria - Tears Getting Sober

Tele-power: 66.7
Jury-power: 87

Qualification: 100%
Top 10: 93.8%
Top 5: 54%
Top 3: 28.7%
Winner: 7.7%
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Image
Lithuania:
The Roop - On Fire

Tele-power: 85.4
Jury-power: 67.4

Qualification: 100%
Top 10: 94%
Top 5: 45.7%
Top 3: 20.5%
Winner: 4.3%
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Image
Russia:
Little Big - Uno

Tele-power: 91.8
Jury-power: 48.4

Qualification: 99.9%
Top 10: 96.5%
Top 5: 37.3%
Top 3: 13%
Winner: 2.8%
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Malta:
Destiny - All of My Love

Tele-power: 59.3
Jury-power: 83.6

Qualification: 99.9%
Top 10: 82.1%
Top 5: 31.9%
Top 3: 13.6%
Winner: 2.7%
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Sweden:
The Mamas - Move

Tele-power: 55.8
Jury-power: 78.1

Qualification: 90.7%
Top 10: 61.8%
Top 5: 20.6%
Top 3: 9%
Winner: 2%
Image
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Norway:
Ulrikke - Attention

Tele-power: 60.1
Jury-power: 76.8

Qualification: 99.5%
Top 10: 67.1%
Top 5: 20.2%
Top 3: 8%
Winner: 1.5%
Image
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Germany:
Ben Dolic - Violent Thing

Tele-power: 52.9
Jury-power: 52.3

Top 10: 26.2%
Top 5: 8%
Top 3: 3.9%
Winner: 1.1%
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Denmark:
Ben and Tan - Yes

Tele-power: 57.4
Jury-power: 58.4

Qualification: 94.5%
Top 10: 28.2%
Top 5: 5.4%
Top 3: 2%
Winner: 0.4%
Image
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Ukraine:
Go_A - Solovey

Tele-power: 70.9
Jury-power: 47.6

Qualification: 98.6%
Top 10: 37.2%
Top 5: 3.7%
Top 3: 0.9%
Winner: 0.1%
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Romania:
Roxen - Alcohol You

Tele-power: 48.6
Jury-power: 55.8

Qualification: 80.9%
Top 10: 18.7%
Top 5: 2.8%
Top 3: 0.9%
Winner: 0.1%
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Image
Poland:
Alicja - Empires

Tele-power: 42.6
Jury-power: 53.8

Qualification: 72.5%
Top 10: 13.9%
Top 5: 2.5%
Top 3: 0.9%
Winner: 0.1%
Image
Image
Netherlands:
Jeangu Macrooy - Grow

Tele-power: 28.5
Jury-power: 53.8

Top 10: 11.7%
Top 5: 2.2%
Top 3: 0.8%
Winner: 0.1%
Image
Image
Australia:
Montaigne - Don't Break Me

Tele-power: 30.6
Jury-power: 51

Qualification: 37%
Top 10: 7.9%
Top 5: 1.3%
Top 3: 0.4%
Winner: 0.1%
Image
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Israel:
Eden Alene - Feker Libi

Tele-power: 51.2
Jury-power: 51.1

Qualification: 79.3%
Top 10: 10.9%
Top 5: 1.1%
Top 3: 0.3%
Winner: 0%
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Belgium:
Hooverphonic - Release Me

Tele-power: 26.8
Jury-power: 64

Qualification: 88.2%
Top 10: 9.4%
Top 5: 0.5%
Top 3: 0.1%
Winner: 0%
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Greece:
Stefania - Supergirl

Tele-power: 51.2
Jury-power: 44.4

Qualification: 73.9%
Top 10: 8.8%
Top 5: 0.5%
Top 3: 0.1%
Winner: 0%
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Finland:
Aksel - Looking Back

Tele-power: 28
Jury-power: 52.5

Qualification: 70.5%
Top 10: 6%
Top 5: 0.6%
Top 3: 0.1%
Winner: 0%
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Armenia:
Athena Manoukian - Chains on You

Tele-power: 46.2
Jury-power: 30.2

Qualification: 74.5%
Top 10: 5.8%
Top 5: 0.4%
Top 3: 0.1%
Winner: 0%
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Serbia:
Hurricane - Hasta la vista

Tele-power: 57.6
Jury-power: 29.4

Qualification: 71.9%
Top 10: 5.6%
Top 5: 0.1%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
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Albania:
Arilena Ara - Fall From the Sky

Tele-power: 32.1
Jury-power: 48.2

Qualification: 58.9%
Top 10: 5.4%
Top 5: 0.5%
Top 3: 0.1%
Winner: 0%
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Azerbaijan:
Efendi - Cleopatra

Tele-power: 59.1
Jury-power: 42.2

Qualification: 85.8%
Top 10: 5.2%
Top 5: 0.1%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
Image
Image
Portugal:
Elisa - Medo de sentir

Tele-power: 21.1
Jury-power: 43.7

Qualification: 55.6%
Top 10: 1.9%
Top 5: 0.1%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
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Croatia:
Damir Kedลพo - Divlji vjetre

Tele-power: 25
Jury-power: 40.5

Qualification: 24%
Top 10: 0.9%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
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Latvia:
Samanta Tฤซna - Still Breathing

Tele-power: 31.4
Jury-power: 22.1

Qualification: 45.6%
Top 10: 0.8%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
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Austria:
Vincent Bueno - Alive

Tele-power: 23.7
Jury-power: 38.7

Qualification: 19.5%
Top 10: 0.7%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
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Cyprus:
Sandro - Running

Tele-power: 28.4
Jury-power: 31.6

Qualification: 6.8%
Top 10: 0.2%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
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Georgia:
Tornike Kipiani - Take Me as I Am

Tele-power: 24.9
Jury-power: 18.9

Qualification: 22.1%
Top 10: 0.2%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
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United Kingdom:
James Newman - My Last Breath

Tele-power: 18
Jury-power: 29.3

Top 10: 0.2%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
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Ireland:
Lesley Roy - Story of My Life

Tele-power: 25.6
Jury-power: 28.7

Qualification: 5.6%
Top 10: 0.1%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
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Spain:
Blas Cantรณ - Universo

Tele-power: 15.6
Jury-power: 26.4

Top 10: 0.1%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
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Image
Belarus:
VAL - Da vidna

Tele-power: 20.3
Jury-power: 22.2

Qualification: 1.1%
Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
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Image
Czechia:
Benny Cristo - Kemama

Tele-power: 22.1
Jury-power: 20

Qualification: 22.7%
Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
Image
Image
Estonia:
Uku Suviste - What Love Is

Tele-power: 18.7
Jury-power: 26.5

Qualification: 4.3%
Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
Image
Image
France:
Tom Leeb - Mon alliรฉe (The Best in Me)

Tele-power: 18.5
Jury-power: 25.4

Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
Image
Image
Moldova:
Natalia Gordienko - Prison

Tele-power: 25.3
Jury-power: 26.1

Qualification: 9.3%
Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
Image
Image
North Macedonia:
Vasil - You

Tele-power: 16.3
Jury-power: 20.5

Qualification: 0.3%
Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
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Image
San Marino:
Senhit - Freaky

Tele-power: 20.7
Jury-power: 17

Qualification: 4.3%
Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
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Image
Slovenia:
Ana Sokliฤ - Voda

Tele-power: 12.5
Jury-power: 30.7

Qualification: 2.6%
Top 10: 0%
Top 5: 0%
Top 3: 0%
Winner: 0%
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More from @dolphin_dane

dolphin_dane Profile picture
Jul 1
The Big Eurovision Prediction Survey 2025 - Participants results thread ๐Ÿงต Image
In this thread I will reveal the results of the survey, including the average participation chance and most likely artists to represent each country, all based on your predictions. I will be going from least to most likely participating country
Overall, you predict an average of 36.46 countries participating. You have 32 countries with a chance over 80%, 10 under 20% and 11 somewhere in the middle. For 44/53 countries, you have submitted enough artist predictions for me to compile an overall top Image
Read 58 tweets
dolphin_dane Profile picture
May 6
The results of The Big #Eurovision Prediction Survey, Post-Rehearsal Speed Edition are finally here! Who will qualify from the semis? Who will win the whole contest? How will each country do? All these questions and more answered through your collective wisdom. Take a look: ๐Ÿงต๐Ÿ“Š
A quick note on the model: I collected 106 sets of predictions of each country's jury and televote potential. Based on your estimates, I simulated the contest 100000 times, taking into account voting patterns and running order. This thread contains the results of the simulations
SEMI 1 QUALIFICATION CHANCES:
Here are the qualification rates for semi final 1. As you can see, ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ seem to have solid chances, while ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ are more up in air. Meanwhile ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฟ, and ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ in particular seem to have a tougher fight ahead of them Image
Read 45 tweets
dolphin_dane Profile picture
Apr 1
The results of "The Big Eurovision Prediction Survey" of 2024 are finally here!
Based on the 248 responses submitted, 100000 simulations have been run in a statistical model simulating the 2024 as closely as possible. Here are the results! ๐Ÿงต
SEMI FINAL 1:
Throughout the 100000 simulations, these were the qualification rates for each country. As you can see, the semi appears quite open, with 12 entries qualifying close to or more than 50% of the time. Our most typical 10 qualifiers are:
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Image
SEMI FINAL 2:
Throughout the 100000 simulations, these were the qualification rates for each country. As you can see, this semi seems more closed off, with clear qualifier and non-qualifier groups. Our most typical 10 qualifiers are:
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ช Image
Read 45 tweets
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Jan 27
Ciao! ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น
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Hallรธj! ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ
Eight artist are in the running to represent Denmark on (almost) home turf in Malmรธ! A lot of familiar faces can be spotted in the credits. It's time for my #DMGP2024 songwriter deep dive! ๐Ÿ•ธ๏ธ๐Ÿ“Š๐Ÿงต
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Read 9 tweets
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Jan 9
Moien! ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ
After 31 years of absence from #Eurovision, Luxembourg is back with 8 songs for their national final. Among them we see many familiar faces. It's time for my Luxembourg Song Contest songwriter deep dive ๐Ÿ•ธ๏ธ๐Ÿ“Š๐Ÿงต
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