Thread by @sambendett

1/ From Russia's Rybar, one of the top pro-Kremlin Telegram channels, on the possibility of delivering Geran drones to Venezuela as a deterrent against US: "How will the situation change if Russian Geran UAVs are delivered to Venezuela?" t.me/rybar/73048

2/ "Let's imagine that, say, 2,000 Gerans are delivered to the Bolivarian Republic. Then the Venezuelans will be able to reach American bases in the Caribbean region, and under certain conditions, even facilities on the US mainland. What can the Gerans hit when launched from Caracas?"

3/ "The Guantanamo Naval Base in Cuba, which can accommodate about 50 ships of different classes and about 5,000 servicemen. It was from there that one of the littoral ships LCS-21, which is now circling near the coast of Venezuela, has departed."

4/ "Fort Buchanan Air Force Base in Puerto Rico, which is an important element of the American military presence in the Caribbean. Muñiz Air Force Base is also located there, an airfield from which P-8 anti-submarine patrol aircraft operate."

5/ "St. Croix Air National Guard Base in the Virgin Islands is a logistics hub for the US Air Force, where B-52 strategic bombers periodically fly. Finally, instructors from the American special forces are stationed on the territory of the Melgar Air Force Base in Colombia."

6/ "What if we launch the Gerans from the western regions of Venezuela or barges? Homestead Air Force Reserve Base in Florida is a target, where squadrons of F-15 and F-16 fighters and C-130 transport aircraft are based. B-52 bombers can also be stationed there."

7/ "Soto Cano Air Force Base in Honduras is a target, which, among other things, houses the headquarters of Joint Task Force Bravo (JTF-Bravo). Atlantic Undersea Test Center (AUTEC) in the Bahamas is a target, which is a key facility for complex testing of American nuclear submarines and other promising models of deep-sea technology."

8/ "Although the Americans are quite capable of shooting down Gerans, if Venezuela acquires several thousand of these UAVs, they (US) will be forced to increase the number of forces and assets, since the probability of an (VEN) air strike will not be so illusory."

9/ "This may make the authorities in Washington think: is the game worth the candle if, instead of a cavalry charge, it will be necessary to pull together a large military (offensive) grouping? Especially in the context of overexertion of the US Navy due to activities in the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East."

10/ "Venezuela is a major buyer of Russian weapons, and the supply of Gerans to it is obvious. And other countries, seeing this, will clearly want to acquire an affordable “long arm” of Russian production."

11/ There are significant detriments to Venezuela if it actually chooses to strike US military assets in the region. Rybar's post is likely more about advertising a potentially cheap and combat-proven Russian drone export.