Recent well liked threads

Nov 6, 2023
1/10 100th anniversary of Vladimir Jabotinsky's "On the Iron Wall", IMO, the best analysis of Zionism's existential question: it's relationship with the Palestinian Arabs. It is also a fine example of the benefits of using a settler colonial framework in the study of Zionism. >> Image
2/10 Jabotinsky understood that the Zionists' claims didn't impress Palestinians who viewed them as invaders undeserving of any stake in the land. The Zionist-Palestinian encounter is like the encounter between European "colonizers" and natives. >>
3/10 Jabotinsky called on the Zionists to abandon attempts at a compromise with the indigenous Palestinians and forge the Jewish settlement as an immovable Iron Wall. When that Iron Wall is erected, the Arabs will come to negotiate, and we can then compromise. He was right. >>
Read 10 tweets
Oct 8
Thread on Blending Fundamentals vs Technicals in portfolio construction -- CHART FIRST -- Lazy thinking in long/short equity -- FY2 Vs. DCF -- Incremental Buyers/Sellers...capital velocity and avoiding "dead money"...duality, humility and arrogance.

"SUCCESS CLOUDS THE MIND."
(1/14) CHART FIRST

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“Any time I get into a position, I’ll look at the chart first...I always default to the chart. It is critical for entry points.” - Steve Cohen, SAC Capital

--

Let’s talk about fundamental analysis and technical analysis.

Too often, people view them as an either/or proposition.

Fundamental analysts will dismiss charts as voodoo, claiming they have nothing to do with business analysis.

Technical analysts will dismiss fundamental analysis, claiming that the chart contains all the information they need.

The truth is that winning portfolio managers know how to use both, and blend them to varying degrees in portfolio construction and risk management.

Of the two styles, technical analysis is far easier to understand, and you can learn the basics in less than a year by reading books.

Fundamental analysis takes several years of study just to fully comprehend financial statements and how to value a business, which must also be followed by several years of real-time market experience: watching how equities are priced in real-time and getting familiar with the “embedded expectations” that each stock carries with it.

A portfolio manager is part analyst, part trader. The analyst side represents fundamental analysis, the trader side represents technical analysis. While not all portfolio managers use technical analysis, in long/short equity it is rare to find one who doesn’t.

This same mentality, “chart first,” is prevalent across the hedge fund industry.

Why?
2. Momentum Is King

First, because the most powerful force in markets is momentum.

This is backed by extensive studies and quantitative research, but at the simplest level, it is because markets are driven primarily by fear and greed. People tend to buy high and sell low, and these tendencies are what drive the continued momentum of a stock in motion. That makes it dangerous to “catch falling knives,” because a stock driven by pure momentum can overshoot fundamentals for far longer than anyone expects...hence the famous quote from Paul Pelosi that "markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" (same year he broke the Bank of England).

The hedge fund industry tends to have a short time frame, and the shorter your time frame is, the more important it is to listen to what the charts are telling you. This is because getting in the way of momentum is the fastest way to end your career.

Here is how charts can be helpful in finding entry points.

Let’s say I’m an analyst and I find a stock that I deem cheap relative to intrinsic value. I write up a 20-page pitch on the fundamentals of the business and present it to my portfolio manager.

Before reading the first word, he pulls up the ticker and the chart looks like this:

For many portfolio managers, this marks the end of your stock pitch. Risk management comes first and buying charts like this in long/short is just a no-go.

It’s not just because of momentum. The truth is that fundamental analysis and technical analysis line up to a much greater degree than you’d think.Image
Read 15 tweets
Oct 9
I watched #KantaraChapter1 for the 3rd time & felt the urge to explain certain things which most of the people didn't understand. Specially the different forms of deva

SPOILERS AHEAD ⚠️

Kantara Chapter 1 — The Divine Origins Behind the Mystery of Guliga Deva and Panjurli 👇 Image
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The Origin of Guliga Deva

The film begins by exploring the origin of Guliga Deva. According to ancient lore, Goddess Parvati once found a stone amidst sacred ashes on Mount Kailash. The stone manifested as a being of immense fury and hunger—Guliga Deva. His insatiable appetite drove him to drink celestial waters and devour anything in sight.
Witnessing this uncontrollable chaos, Bhagwan Vishnu offered his little finger for Guliga to consume, finally quelling his hunger. But Bhagwan Shiv, realizing Guliga’s destructive power, assigned him a sacred duty—he was to descend to Earth as a KSHETRAPALA, the divine guardian of land and dharma.
Read 19 tweets
Oct 9
This really isn't getting enough attention. China has truly gone all in on export controls today, in a major way.

Not only did they announce the unprecedented rare earths restrictions that I posted about earlier 👇 (targeted, among others, at the advanced semiconductors sector) but they issued 4 consecutive announcements in total with other export controls on:

- The machines and expertise to process rare earths - not just the rare earths themselves, but all the specialized equipment and technical know-how to turn rare earth into usable materials (obviously making it all the harder to try to move rare earth processing away from China)
- High-performance batteries - specifically those above 300 Wh/kg needed for long-range EVs and advanced drones. And, again, export controls on all the factory equipment to make them too.
- The materials inside batteries - both graphite anodes and cathode materials (the two electrodes that are essential for batteries to function at all). Export controls also cover the specialized equipment to manufacture all of these components.
- Industrial diamonds and cutting tools - the ultra-hard materials that are used ubiquitously in precision manufacturing, for instance to cut silicon wafers for computer chips

This is absolutely unprecedented. With this China effectively gets veto power over three critical supply chains simultaneously: advanced semiconductors (via rare earths and related equipment), battery-powered vehicles and drones, and precision manufacturing across industries (via superhard materials).

It will all officially take effect on November 8, in one month.

The official explanation (mofcom.gov.cn/syxwfb/art/202…) is to prevent "dual use" and "safeguard national security", incidentally the same official explanation the US gave for its own chip export controls to China. As Mao once said: "our method is to learn warfare through warfare"... Or you could also say what goes around comes around...

Here you can find all the announcements collated in a Guancha article (in Chinese). It's very, very extensive: guancha.cn/politics/2025_…
Read 2 tweets
Oct 9
I’m tracking two key players in the photonics space, $ALMU and $POET, both building the future of high-speed connectivity.

Today, let's do a deep dive on Aeluma, a semiconductor company creating a platform that could redefine AI, autonomous driving, and quantum computing

You won't want to miss this thread 🧵Image
Cracking the Semiconductor Code $ALMU

For years, chip makers had a fundamental problem.

You could have incredible performance from exotic compound semiconductor materials, or you could have the massive scale and low cost of silicon manufacturing.

You couldn't have both.

Aeluma has cracked the code, developing a proprietary way to grow high-performance compound semiconductor materials directly onto large-diameter silicon wafers.

This platform gets the elite performance of specialized materials and the cost structure of mass-market production, a true holy grail for the industry.

This breakthrough means they can leverage the multi-trillion-dollar global silicon manufacturing infrastructure to build chips that were previously too expensive for anything but niche applications.Image
Product Deep Dive: Next-Gen SWIR Sensing $ALMU

Aeluma's first major product area is next-generation sensing.

The company is scaling Short-Wave Infrared (SWIR) sensors that are a massive leap over current tech.

SWIR light is much safer for the human eye, which allows systems to use more powerful illumination sources. This translates directly to longer range and better resolution for 3D sensing applications like advanced facial recognition or gesture control.

It also performs far better in bright sunlight, a critical advantage for outdoor systems like automotive LiDAR where solar interference can blind other sensors.

This superior performance in all conditions is exactly what the automotive and robotics industries have been waiting for.Image
Read 16 tweets
Oct 9
🛢️🔥Cheap, fast, & devastating — Ukraine's sanctions turned Russia’s energy empire into rubble.

🧵1/23
🔥Turkey, Belarus, and Ukraine are rewriting Moscow’s energy map.
And the Kremlin’s money is vanishing faster than its refineries.
One million tons of fuel lost in September alone.
Moscow’s refineries are burning, its army’s rationing, and the Kremlin’s out of gas.

2/23 Image
🇹🇷🇷🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦

Turkey just dealt Russia another blow. By 2028, Ankara will cover more than half of its gas needs without Russia — through local output & U.S LNG. That’s a $20+ billion. Russia's last big European gas client is slipping away — and Putin’s war chest with it.

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Read 25 tweets
Oct 10
13e jour du procès de Cédric #Jubillar.
Son audition sur les faits est prévue aujourd’hui. À suivre direct, ici ⏬.
Encore et toujours par @MathieuFourquet Image
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Il y a vraiment plus de monde devant le palais de justice que les jours précédents.
Certains sont arrivés à 4 heures du matin…
Read 91 tweets
Oct 10
1/ BREAKING: Han Hak-ja, 82-year-old leader of the Unification Church, has been indicted on charges including bribery, embezzlement and evidence tampering linked to former first lady Kim Keon Hee and the ruling People Power Party.

She has been detained since 23 September.
2/ Key charges: Han and her former secretary Jung Won-ju conspired with church official Yun Young-ho to deliver 100 million won cash to lawmaker Kweon Seong-dong in January 2022, prosecutors say.

Kweon was arrested in September.
3/ Between March-April 2022, they allegedly donated 210 million won from church funds to the People Power Party.

Prosecutors say 144 million won was split among multiple party lawmakers. khan.co.kr/article/202509…
Read 8 tweets
Oct 10
This is BEYOND insane:

Billions just have vanished overnight.

Auto-parts giant First Brands just went bankrupt and no one knows where the money went.

It borrowed using the same assets over and over, now no one knows who owns what.

(a thread) Image
First Brands wasn’t small. It supplied parts to Walmart, AutoZone, and O’Reilly.

On paper it had $5.8B in loans but hidden under that were billions more in off-balance-sheet debt.

By the time it collapsed, the real number was closer to $12B, maybe higher. Image
The trick was called rehypothecation, using the same collateral for multiple loans.

It’s like taking five mortgages on one house.

It works until every lender shows up demanding repayment, and suddenly you discover the “assets” backing those loans don’t exist. Image
Read 13 tweets
Oct 10
The HEROIC story of Dedan Kimathi.

Kenyan Teacher who defeated the British colonialists by raiding Police Posts with Mau Mau Freedom Fighters!!

THREAD.. Image
If there's a man who deserved to be the 1st president of Kenya, it is this man Dedan Kimathi.

Born on 31st Oct 1924 in Nyeri County- Kimathi was the son of Waciuri, a rich polygamous man who died shortly after marrying his mom as the 3rd wife.. Image
Akizaliwa, Kenya was already a British colony and infact the most attractive one. Reason being -we had the best untapped land they had never seen.

A land they discovered as they built the Kenya-Uganda Railway from 1898-1901.. Image
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Read 26 tweets
Oct 10
She supports the U.S. waging war against her own country for regime change (theguardian.com/world/2019/may…).

The Nobel "Peace" Prize, being its usual mockery of itself. Basically a reward for the most rabid defendents of a western liberal order, "peace" being a distant afterthought. x.com/NobelPrize/sta…
The ideological aspect is crystal clear, see 👇 "Democracy is a precondition for lasting peace"

By which they mean liberal democracy, of course. And it couldn't be more false: the countries that have waged the most wars, by far, over the past few decades were liberal democracies (the US first and foremost).
Unsurprisingly, she is beloved by the U.S., here's a Trump post from this January 👇 where he praises her effusively. Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 10
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce American propagandist Alexandra Jost, aka “Sasha” (@sashameetsrus). She’s best known for being paid by the Russian state to spread pro-Kremlin propaganda — and for doing it with a big smile.

1/23 Image
Alexandra, now 26, was born in Hong Kong. Her father is from Texas, and her mother is from Siberia. According to her, she has “dreamed of living in Russia since childhood.” Sasha's mother runs a dance studio in Moscow and her younger brother is avoiding mobilization.

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Since the beginning of her creator career, Sasha has been adamant about one thing: that she’s “never had to be paid” to speak of her “love” for Russia. But, as always with Russia, this turned out to be nothing but vranyo — a Russian “tactical lie.”

3/23 Image
Read 24 tweets
Oct 10
Appalling: JB Pritzker tells me he hasn't been able to get a single convo with Kristi Noem or any other top Trump officials to even discuss their Chicago operations. Pritzker just wants heads up for logistical reasons. Nada.

Pritzker opens up on the pod:
newrepublic.com/article/201604…
JB Pritzker has also been emphatically placing Trump's mental decline front and center. On our pod, he adds a new element: People around Trump are using his decline to manipulate him, so they're less likely to intervene. More Dems should say this.

newrepublic.com/article/201606…Image
Stephen Miller just said the Chicago ICE raid was one of the most successful police operations ever. I asked Pritzker to respond.

"If this was Pinochet’s Chile, if this was Argentina under authoritarian rule, maybe you’d call it successful," he said. 2/

newrepublic.com/article/201606…Image
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Read 6 tweets
Oct 10
🧵: Today is the one month anniversary of Charlie Kirk’s assassination. Since then...

*No autopsy or ballistics report
*No investigative progress
*No media/official interest in blatant evidence tampering by TPUSA

Is it just me, or is this *really* weird? Image
Nonetheless, there have been some developments. After initially claiming to possess incontrovertible proof Kirk was killed by lone nut shooter Tyler Robinson, Kash Patel has admitted there are a *lot* of unanswered questions:

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No leads so far. Erika Kirk also gave a bizarre eulogy where she displayed little apparent genuine emotion, bar regularly smiling oddly, giggling intensely while talking about Charlie being up above in heaven, and cheerily embracing Donald Trump. Very odd. Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 10
Die AfD entscheidet im Sommer in Thüringen
über ihre Führung

Die AfD muss noch vor den Landtagswahlen im Osten 2026 eine neue Führung wählen.
Nun steht der Ort fest: Die AfD tagt in Erfurt.
Ist das eine Vorentscheidung für die rechtsextremen Kreise um Björn Höcke? Image
Die Rechtspartei wird im Juli 2026 turnusgemäß eine neue Führung wählen. Unklar ist, ob das seit 2022 amtierende Duo aus Alice Weidel und Tino Chrupalla noch einmal antritt.
In der Partei bilden sich zunehmend zwei Lager.
Der Sachse Chrupalla hat sich besonders in den
als „gemäßigt“ geltenden westlichen Landesverbänden um Unterstützung bemüht, Weidel wird von einem Netzwerk eher junger Strippenzieher in der Partei und von Vertretern in den extremen östlichen Landesverbänden gestützt.

Höcke kann als Gastgeber auftreten.
Read 6 tweets
Oct 10
🧵Horrendous post from anti-dissenter activist and Twitter's chief gaslighter @w6345789.

The category of human you are undermining (people who get annoyed at smart meters) do not exist. Concern about smart meters is merely part of ethical people's opposition to control systems.
Ethical people who oppose control and domination (who you go out of your way to undermine) care about consensual interaction, personal sovereignty and decentralisation. o

Opposition to smart meters stems from ethical principles and elementary concerns about control.
Smart meters are a violation of privacy and autonomy.

Smart meters monitor and transmit detailed real-time data about personal energy use, turning a human's private home into a monitored environment.
Read 22 tweets
Oct 10
After years of feeling burned out, I finally figured out the system.

Over 2,000 workouts, 3,000 hours, and 9 years later, here are the 11 systems that transformed my health (and will do the same for you): Image
1. Rule 10:1

Don't eat anything that has more than 10 calories per gram of protein.

Examples:
* 200 calories and 20g of protein = OK.
* 300 calories and 15g of protein = NO.

It eliminates doubt. It makes every meal a clear decision.
2. Swallow the toad

Start each workout with the hardest exercise.

Because?

* Maximum energy
* Impeccable technique
* Focused mind

Everything that follows will be downhill
Read 13 tweets
Oct 10
The truth about organ transplants is worse than anyone imagined.

Millions sign up as organ donors, never imagining the system could betray them.

But federal investigators found nearly 30% of ANR donors showed signs of life, as surgeons prepared to harvest their organs.

Nurses say some organ donors are sedated or even paralyzed just so the organ harvesting procedures can continue.

Even more disturbing, the definition of “death” was re-engineered decades ago to make this nightmare possible.

This is what no one tells you about being an organ donor—and what really happens when someone receives an organ.

🧵 THREADImage
The information in this thread comes from the work of medical researcher @MidwesternDoc. For all the sources and details, read the full report below.
midwesterndoctor.com/p/the-unseen-c…
In case you missed it, @MidwesternDoc released one of the most shocking reports yet.

Yes, organ transplants save lives—but the system is absolutely riddled with corruption, misdiagnosed “brain death,” and multiple cases of patients showing signs of life as their organs were about to be harvested.

This is nothing short of disturbing.Image
Read 15 tweets
Oct 10
En 1915, una mujer le pidió a su marido que le comprase unas cortinas.

—Cariño, ¿traes lo que te pedí?
—No, pero he comprado otra cosa: un círculo de piedras que, por cierto, es el monumento más famoso de Inglaterra.

En #LaBrasaTorrijos, el tipo que regaló Stonehenge.

🧵⤵️
Ah, Stonehenge.

Lugar de mitos, de leyendas.

De reencontrarse con los dioses arcanos, con el poder sanador del sol y la luna, con los misterios de civilizaciones antediluvianas... Image
..y también con hostias de la policía, por cierto. Image
Read 28 tweets