Let's be clear, what happened to the Su-57 can and will happen to the F-22, the F-35, the Gripen or a Rafale.
The technological barriers to entry for a 1990's era Tomahawk class accuracy and range for OWA drone/propellor cruise missiles have fallen.
1/
It was clear in 2015 that with 3D printing and Google map overhead image database for a digital scene matching automatic correlation (DSMAC), we would see cheap, printed component, off the shelf, mini-Tomahawk IV cruise missiles available to mid-sized drug gang class...
2/
...sized financial organizations inside of 10 years, AKA Ukrainian crowd funding of 2023-to-2024 sized.
Chinese microbolometer uncooled thermal imaging chips were a commodity in 2015 and were used by both sides of the 2014-2015 ATO in Donbas.
3/
The high end radio control crowd of 2015 was using a line of relatively cheap ( $1K to $10K) jet turbines.
I loved the comments there about small/cheap pulse jets. The video of the scale model F-14 is even better. But what chilled me was this review of a book that was linked there:
4/
See: rc-airplane-world.com/model-jet-engi…
"Kamps book explains clearly how, with a reasonably well equipped workshop, a model engineer can build an efficient working jet engine..."
Can you say 3D printed, cheap and expendable pulse jet engines?
Ukraine noticed.
5/
There were a lot of reasons that DARPA issued this announcement in 2015.
SEEKER COST TRANSFORMATION (SECTR)
STRATEGIC TECHNOLOGY OFFICE
DARPA-BAA-15-41
May 4, 2015
6/
While CNN is talking up AI for clicks.
The real phase change is that Late Cold War tech like TERCOM & DSMAC is a commodity priced electronics technology for the Liutyi's weapon seeker and navigation system.
7/
mil.in.ua/en/news/cnn-li…
The Ukrainian article paraphrasing CNN put it this way:
"Each aircraft has a terminal computer with satellite and terrain data. The flights are determined in advance with our allies, & the aircraft follow the flight plan to enable us to strike targets with meters of precision,”
8/
And Ukraine dropped a broad hint that the Standoff Munitions Activity Center (SMAC) at Barksdale AFB might be assisting in the low level strike routing of Liutyi.
I'm wondering if there is a Su-57 silhouette stenciled somewhere at SMAC.😏
9/
These photos of the Liutyi's 50 kg warhead makes it look like the Ukrainians' wanted a uniform fragment size for a specific performance level.
About a half inch (12.7mm) of mild steel at 50 meters seems to have been the design point.**
**When you eyeball Ukrainian drones...
10/
...there are advantages of having WW2 documents like "EFFECTS OF IMPACT AND EXPLOSION," by the National Research Defense Committee (Senior leader group photo below) a internet search away.
11/
archive.org/details/effect…
The important thing about Liuty class strike weapons is you are looking at a ~$150,000 weapon doing the job of a ~$3.5 million Tomahawk Block IV.
That is a 23 to 1 cost effectiveness advantage doing this mission photographed below.
12/
Cheap drone based offensive counter air campaigns, affordable by 3rd rate powers, are now the biggest threat to 4th, 5th and soon 6th generation crewed fighter basing and logistics.
13/13 End
@threadreaderapp unroll please
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