#Bitcoin: great reversal setup after extended drop aided by the ICE bullish news. Went long 7395, 7400, 7405 (different exchanges), added 7460. Ideal entries were between 7390 and 7430. Horizontal lines are my S/R levels. First target is 7650. Stop 7630. $BTC $XBT
Thought to illustrate how not looking to catch the bottom. By trading a reversal this way one is actually trading with the immediate trend, rather than against the trend. Issue with executing like this is if using limits will more often than not NOT get filled.
A thread on why #bitcoin's value proposition might still not be priced in by investors:
1) Bitcoin is currently the only viable candidate for a non-sovereign store of value, but it seems that it's still massively underpriced. This under-appreciation of bitcoin might be the result of how investors evaluate cryptocurrencies.
2) Many tech investors analogize between existing tech companies/platforms and cryptocurrencies. They assume that most value will accrue to platforms and extrapolate the properties of platforms, such as AWS or iOS, to smart contracts platforms, such as ETH or EOS.
I want to go ahead and talk about logic for this rally.
1. In a bear market, any pump would be to dump harder, which has been the case throughout this past year. All of the past rallies were achieved via Bart patterns, signally a lack of real buying volume.
However, we can clearly see that this most recent rally was achieved via pump + organic buying volume. We had consolidation instead of retrace throughout the rally, price moves that mirror moves of 2017.
So why are volumes coming back?
Without change in fundamentals, any serious pump would be to liberate trapped higher-up positions and a colossal waste of money for the bulls. Bulls won't be stupid enough to blast through many critical resistances allowing higher-up positions to exit.
1/ "...a slow drain of its monetary value over time will slowly transfer the wealth of its holders to those who can produce the medium at a low cost". (on trade / aggry beads and early European exploitation of African resources)
2/ "With money so unreliable and debased, speculation in commodities became far more attractive than producing them". (on the collapse of Rome)
I think there's an interesting dynamic between VC's/Funds and Bitcoiners.
A lot of the VC's value different properties and have different views on things. The most obvious reason why is Austrian vs Keynesian economics. If you're in this space and still don't know the difference.
I honestly didn't know the difference either until I got into #Bitcoin just because it didn't really matter to me at the time. During my education I took some courses in economics but they were all Keynesian I figured out later... which explains why I was left with some questions
1/ In 2017 the SEC rejected two bitcoin ETFs, while in early 2018 multiple firms withdrew ETF filings, upon the SEC questioning whether the proposed ETFs could comply with various rules. What is the SEC looking for to approve a #bitcoin ETF?
2-a/ The Winklevoss ETF. The SEC determined the ETF proposal was not consistent with Section 6(b)(5) of Exchange Act, requiring rules of a national securities exchange designed to prevent fraudulent and manipulative practices and to protect investors. sec.gov/rules/sro/bats…
2-b/ To meet this standard, a) an exchange must have surveillance-sharing agreements with significant markets for trading the underlying commodity, and b) those markets must be regulated.
Some large institutions perceive #bitcoin as a Ponzi and/or scam. Changing such perception will take time. The SEC approving an ETF won't change it. There are plenty regulated securities disliked by institutional investors.
The approval of CFTC regulated bitcoin futures was a massive win carrying significant long terms benefits for the industry. The ensuing bubble was unfortunate. CME and CBOE futures add liquidity and legitimacy to #bitcoin.
Approval of an ETF with a share size of 25 BTC would mostly only be attractive to large institutions, many of which may face mandate impediments to transact in such ETF or use it as underlying for structured products.
3/ The most protracted of the four stages is the establishment of a good as a store of value. Once a store of value is widely owned, its purchasing power will stabilize and it will quickly become suitable as a medium of exchange and unit of account.
1)Those that have tried to 'fix' #Bitcoin by changing it to something else entirely have done so because they do not understand the *invisible hand*. They feel it should be their hand there instead.
2) This is why we have BTC thought leaders telling people that 'their node gives them power over the network' and that 'miners are evil'. They simply do not understand the incentives of the system i.e. the invisible hand.
3) Network participants are all incentivised to *naturally* do what benefits themselves and the system. I.e. #Bitcoin aligns the incentives of the system with the participant.