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1/ A tremor in the water, a distant rumble. Apprehension is in the air as one of Silicon Valley's apex predators enters the cryptocurrency market.

Should #Bitcoin owners fear the entrance of Facebook? Let's consider the risks...
2/ The reports are that @davidmarcus is heading a team at Facebook with the intention of launching their own foray into the crypto market. Those who know him, know David is an outstanding executive and he's already built a small, crack team within FB.

techcrunch.com/2018/08/10/fac…
3/ But what is Facebook going to launch? I see three main possibilities and I want to consider whether each of them (A, B, C) pose a direct threat to #Bitcoin and what resources and comparative advantages Facebook might bring to bear in the cryptocurrency market.
Read 16 tweets
#Bitcoin isn't just mathematically secure, it's thermodynamically secure.

Bitcoin's cryptography is based off of computational hardness assumptions and the complexity of brute force attacks.

We can compute the minimum energy / time needed to attack Bitcoin.

1/
For eg, to break preimage resistance of sha256, we must compute 2^256 hashes.

BTC has 50M TH/s hashpower. It would take
2^256 / (50 * 10^6 * 10^12) s
= 2^256 / (5 * 10^18) s
> 2^256 / (2^3 * 2^60) s
= 2^256 / 2^63 a
= 2^193 seconds
> 10^40 * age of universe
To break it.

2/
Antminer S9 does 13TH/s at 1300W. That's 10^9 hashes / Joule.

The sun emits ~4 * 10^26 W in energy. That's enough to power 4 * 10^35 hashes / s.

2^256 / ( 4 * 10^35) s
> 2^256 / 2^122 s
= 2^134 s
= 10^22 * age of universe

The sun can't even break sha256.

3/3
Read 3 tweets
1/ Most people think #Bitcoin’s PoW is "wasteful." I explore how everything is energy, money is energy, subjective use of energy, and PoW's costs relative to existing governance systems

For a deeper dive, my Medium post: medium.com/@danhedl/pow-i…

TL;DR - check out this thread 👇
2/ The idea of “work” being energy started when the French Mathematician Gaspard-Gustave de Coriolis introduced the idea of energy being “work done.” A long time ago, the work done in the economy was entirely human. That work was powered by food.
3/ Thousands of years ago, our energy usage increased when we domesticated animals which could labor in our place. Those new laborers also had to be fed. Large amounts of food were required to meet the energy demand, and our prosperity increased alongside.
Read 25 tweets
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1/ $BTC #Bitcoin is definitely not out of the woods yet.

From what we see, it seems as though there *should* be a bounce upward from the point that it is currently lingering at.
2/ However, this could be a setup for a further 'measured move down' from this point for $BTC #Bitcoin (among other alts as well).

Thus, the consolidation noted below in this pic may not be the price bouncing but merely the flag of a measured move.
3/ Here's how to create a price target based on the measured move:

#1 First You Measure the Flag Itself
Read 10 tweets
#Bitcoin: great reversal setup after extended drop aided by the ICE bullish news. Went long 7395, 7400, 7405 (different exchanges), added 7460. Ideal entries were between 7390 and 7430. Horizontal lines are my S/R levels. First target is 7650. Stop 7630. $BTC $XBT
Thought to illustrate how not looking to catch the bottom. By trading a reversal this way one is actually trading with the immediate trend, rather than against the trend. Issue with executing like this is if using limits will more often than not NOT get filled.
Stop 7330, not 7630.
Read 3 tweets
#Bitcoin has had a fascinating affect on libertarians and "the freedom movement."

Like an ultimatum, it has split libertarians into two separate camps, Neo-Austrians (cypherpunks) and a postmodern libertarians.
The former is characterized by a focus on technology, money and the pursuit of truth, while the latter is focused on pragmatic politics and postmodern libertarian skepticism.
Bitcoin is unyielding. It forces formerly well-respected Austrians into logical inconsistencies, contradicting themselves, as they attempt to dismiss it.

They refuse to approach Bitcoin rationally, so end up rejecting technology and science, too.
Read 4 tweets
A thread on why #bitcoin's value proposition might still not be priced in by investors:
1) Bitcoin is currently the only viable candidate for a non-sovereign store of value, but it seems that it's still massively underpriced. This under-appreciation of bitcoin might be the result of how investors evaluate cryptocurrencies.
2) Many tech investors analogize between existing tech companies/platforms and cryptocurrencies. They assume that most value will accrue to platforms and extrapolate the properties of platforms, such as AWS or iOS, to smart contracts platforms, such as ETH or EOS.
Read 13 tweets
#Bitcoin $BTC

I want to go ahead and talk about logic for this rally.

1. In a bear market, any pump would be to dump harder, which has been the case throughout this past year. All of the past rallies were achieved via Bart patterns, signally a lack of real buying volume.
However, we can clearly see that this most recent rally was achieved via pump + organic buying volume. We had consolidation instead of retrace throughout the rally, price moves that mirror moves of 2017.

So why are volumes coming back?
Without change in fundamentals, any serious pump would be to liberate trapped higher-up positions and a colossal waste of money for the bulls. Bulls won't be stupid enough to blast through many critical resistances allowing higher-up positions to exit.
Read 4 tweets
I think there's an interesting dynamic between VC's/Funds and Bitcoiners.
A lot of the VC's value different properties and have different views on things. The most obvious reason why is Austrian vs Keynesian economics. If you're in this space and still don't know the difference.
Educate yourself. Here are some sources:
zerohedge.com/sites/default/…
economicreason.com/austrianeconom…


For #Bitcoin specific examples I recommend reading @jimmysong's articles: medium.com/@jimmysong/cry…
medium.com/@jimmysong/seg…
I honestly didn't know the difference either until I got into #Bitcoin just because it didn't really matter to me at the time. During my education I took some courses in economics but they were all Keynesian I figured out later... which explains why I was left with some questions
Read 10 tweets
1/ In the immortal words of Ice Cube, HODLing ain't easy, but it's necessary:

An Ode to Saving (in #Bitcoin)
2/ No economic good can become a full fledged money without passing through the 4 stages of the evolution of money.
3/ The most protracted of the four stages is the establishment of a good as a store of value. Once a store of value is widely owned, its purchasing power will stabilize and it will quickly become suitable as a medium of exchange and unit of account.
Read 15 tweets
#Bitcoin's off chain layer 2 is what makes it adaptable to nearly anything the free market can think of.

Bitcoin's decentralization on layer 1 is what ensures it's a "free" market.
Altcoins and ICO tokens are relatively centralized, and as a result are less free and adaptable.
Thanks to #bitcoin's relative decentralization and resulting freedom, its adoption is higher and it's ecosystem more vibrant.
Read 6 tweets
1/ #Bitcoin is in a mania. I admit that. People are accumulating. If bitcoin was a typical investment, it would be setup for a 90% sell-off. But this isn't a typical investment.
2/ It's important to understand that #bitcoin is divisible to 8 decimal places. 0.00000001 btc = 1 Satoshi, the smallest unit (that the base layer will recognize).
3/ It's true, #Bitcoin isn't usable for everyday payments at the base level, no cryptocurrency is, but it is good at making transactions that are censored by credit cards and other payment methods. ie wikileaks donations, dark mrkt prescription drugs, etc.
Read 10 tweets
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