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@bquittem Software failure always occurs in 3 areas:
User failure - it didn't deserve the needs of the end user
Organizational failure - the business/org' s needs weren't met

Technological failure - technical debt, leapfrog threat, or other intrinsic/extrinsic factor caused obsolescence/1
@bquittem Bitcoin is an interesting study in software risk mitigation (which I've been ding most of my career) so I'll share out thoughts because this is my latest favorite thought experiment/2
@bquittem I'll start with technological failure because this is the area I'm least familiar with, and have the least to offer:
Statistically, the bitcoin network has 99.983% uptime over 10 years since the genesis block. The decentralized, antifragile nature of block construction, /3
Read 20 tweets
Five things I've learned after a year of being seriously into #Bitcoin.
1. There's little correlation between early adopters and intelligence. It seems to me that many OG's didn't realise the incredible thing they were sitting on, and either rage quit when they didn't get their
own way, forked a new coin just to get some random feature they thought everyone needed, or sold their coins early thinking Bitcoin had hit the top. Many just got offered buckets of cash to go shill or work on shitcoins. Most OGs were just lucky, not smart.
That said, the OGs who still understand what Bitcoin is at this point are battle tested enough to be worth listening to.
Read 23 tweets
#bitcoin

This is how I like to scalp.

Identify zones. Buy break/retest of zone.

Sell at next zone up.

Quick in and out.
#Bitcoin

Updated scalp levels
#bitcoin

Still playing inside the range.
Read 3 tweets
#Bitcoin is bigger than all the companies that try to capitalise on its #blockchain #technology.

#Bitcoin + #IoT + #DeepLearning will transform the global political & financial system without permission.

#blockchain #LightningNetwork #fintech #blockchain #disruptiveinnovation
#Decentralisation will take time.

#Bitcoin is decentralised although still attached to a centralised world.

⚠️ This is the alpha.
⚠️ #LightningNetwork is the beta.
If you want to change society you need to change the social paradigm, or offer an incentive greater than money to discourage greed. #bitcoin #LightningNetwork ⚡️
Read 10 tweets
#Bitcoin isn't just mathematically secure, it's thermodynamically secure.

Bitcoin's cryptography is based off of computational hardness assumptions and the complexity of brute force attacks.

We can compute the minimum energy / time needed to attack Bitcoin.

1/
For eg, to break preimage resistance of sha256, we must compute 2^256 hashes.

BTC has 50M TH/s hashpower. It would take
2^256 / (50 * 10^6 * 10^12) s
= 2^256 / (5 * 10^18) s
> 2^256 / (2^3 * 2^60) s
= 2^256 / 2^63 a
= 2^193 seconds
> 10^40 * age of universe
To break it.

2/
Antminer S9 does 13TH/s at 1300W. That's 10^9 hashes / Joule.

The sun emits ~4 * 10^26 W in energy. That's enough to power 4 * 10^35 hashes / s.

2^256 / ( 4 * 10^35) s
> 2^256 / 2^122 s
= 2^134 s
= 10^22 * age of universe

The sun can't even break sha256.

3/3
Read 3 tweets
#Bitcoin and fractional reserve banking (FRB). Thread 👇

Ok, this is going to be a controversial one. I've avoided the topic for a long time, but since there are many important experts -- ppl that I truly admire -- discussing the subject, I can no longer ignore it.
1/ Since the @Bakkt announcement, the issue has gained steam, especially through the works of @CaitlinLong_ (who's a real champion of #Bitcoin and liberty btw) and her concerns on WallSt's financialization of crypto. B/c of that, FRB is now inserted frequently into debates.
2/ As a background for laymen, FRB is considered THE BIG CONTENTIOUS & UNRESOLVED DEBATE within adherents of the so-called Austrian School of Economics. Rothbardians tend to think it's fraudulent, inflationary and causes economic cycles. They are the proponents of 100% reserves.
Read 33 tweets
#bitcoin

Levels.
#bitcoin

Still stuck in this range.

Tried to break out but rejected right at the top.

The longer it's stuck in this zone the more likely it will test the bottom.
#bitcoin

Standard S/R flip.
Read 5 tweets
#Bitcoin: great reversal setup after extended drop aided by the ICE bullish news. Went long 7395, 7400, 7405 (different exchanges), added 7460. Ideal entries were between 7390 and 7430. Horizontal lines are my S/R levels. First target is 7650. Stop 7630. $BTC $XBT
Thought to illustrate how not looking to catch the bottom. By trading a reversal this way one is actually trading with the immediate trend, rather than against the trend. Issue with executing like this is if using limits will more often than not NOT get filled.
Stop 7330, not 7630.
Read 3 tweets
#Bitcoin has had a fascinating affect on libertarians and "the freedom movement."

Like an ultimatum, it has split libertarians into two separate camps, Neo-Austrians (cypherpunks) and a postmodern libertarians.
The former is characterized by a focus on technology, money and the pursuit of truth, while the latter is focused on pragmatic politics and postmodern libertarian skepticism.
Bitcoin is unyielding. It forces formerly well-respected Austrians into logical inconsistencies, contradicting themselves, as they attempt to dismiss it.

They refuse to approach Bitcoin rationally, so end up rejecting technology and science, too.
Read 4 tweets
#Bitcoin $BTC

I want to go ahead and talk about logic for this rally.

1. In a bear market, any pump would be to dump harder, which has been the case throughout this past year. All of the past rallies were achieved via Bart patterns, signally a lack of real buying volume.
However, we can clearly see that this most recent rally was achieved via pump + organic buying volume. We had consolidation instead of retrace throughout the rally, price moves that mirror moves of 2017.

So why are volumes coming back?
Without change in fundamentals, any serious pump would be to liberate trapped higher-up positions and a colossal waste of money for the bulls. Bulls won't be stupid enough to blast through many critical resistances allowing higher-up positions to exit.
Read 4 tweets
#Bitcoin's off chain layer 2 is what makes it adaptable to nearly anything the free market can think of.

Bitcoin's decentralization on layer 1 is what ensures it's a "free" market.
Altcoins and ICO tokens are relatively centralized, and as a result are less free and adaptable.
Thanks to #bitcoin's relative decentralization and resulting freedom, its adoption is higher and it's ecosystem more vibrant.
Read 6 tweets

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