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David Henig @DavidHenigUK
, 9 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
And now for the updated pre-summer edition of the thoroughly unscientific and utterly subjective Brexit probability meter... and we have some movement, though it's not making things any clearer 1/
The talk of food stockpiling, and a not wholly convincing answer on the Irish backstop yesterday leads me to slightly downgrade the March WTO probability, and increase the CETA / Irish sea border probability. But it's still a mess. A little more analysis follows.. 2/
No-deal is divided into the March crash-out with no agreement at all, and the slightly more likely short extension to get some basic agreements in place regarding aviation, borders etc. Options favoured by those who believe the state of negotiations is all the EU's fault 3/
The CETA+ Irish sea backstop / NI fudge solution is as many point out the EU's offer. @paulrey99 is perhaps the best advocate in recognising unlike many others the need to in this scenario have border checks, and has put thought into the detail. Lacks strong political support 4/
The permanent / endless transition is the idea of a UK wide backstop, and there is Brussels talk of multiple backstops now, to cover multiple interpretations. Kicks the can into the future while leaving the EU, so thought to be 1st choice for officials 5/
The Jersey model is the variant of the UK's white paper in which both sides compromise - the UK by accepting full single market for goods only (i.e. Chequers plus), EU accepts break of four freedoms. Neither side showing signs as yet 6/
There are occasional signs that the EEA option is picking up traction - the odd column, a few MPs showing interest. As yet probably not enough to put the probability up - but like CETA+backstop there is actually a coherent plan here, which could appeal 7/
The idea of a second referendum will not go away, but there is a major timing problem with only 8 months to go to Brexit, and concern it won't really solve anything 8/
Thanks to the many people who pointed out that in some cases options are not mutually exclusive, I know, it's illustrative, investments can go up and down etc. And thanks to the person who sent me the time series version - to track changes - coming soon 9/ ends
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