Thread by @unseen1_unseen

1. Okay going to debunk some of the talking points and bubblethink in the media today about the blue wave being real. For this, I'm going to use this article from Breitbart which lists the 5 biggest groupthink ideas.

breitbart.com/big-government…

2. First, the writer gets it wrong right out of the box by calling OH12 a primary election. It wasn't. It was a special election. There were primary elections in 4 other states last night but OH12 wasn't one of them.

3. This may seem like nitpicking but it isn't. There is a big difference between primaries and special elections and both gives different lessons about the current thinking of voters.

4. Special elections outside of normal election days are historically low turnout affairs. The GOP had about 40% of the 2016 vote turnout. This is NORMAL. The dems had about 90% of the 2016 vote turn out. This is abnormal.

5. This explains and seems to reinforce Pollack's first point in his article.
(Point 1 The agony of 2016). Nothing motivates an opposition party quite like the sting of defeat from the last election." He goes on to say it shows

6. " it has also motivated the party to organize more effectively to win whatever it can"
But does it? Yes, it shows that the opposition is motivated IRT to a special election but the fact is they had a 10% lower turnout than in 2016.

7. So if the DNC was this organizing machine due to the sting of 2016 would not one expect a higher turnout than in 2016 not a 10% lower turnout? What it does show is that 90% of those that voted in Nov are still upset at their lost and want a do over.

8. It doesn't say anything about pulling in additional voters to their side. It doesn't give any evidence of a blue wave. Evidence for a blue wave would be if more voters turned out than in 2016 not less. Moving on to the second point he makes.

9. (point 2 Health care.) His point is that obamacare repeal failure is still causing families hardship and the best argument against GOP control of Congress is that they have not solved it yet. He acknowledges that the GOP has got rid of parts of it but says they have no plan.

10. He makes the argument that having a terrible plan (medicare for all) is better than no plan. He is wrong on both points. In medicine the oath is "first do no harm". That's as true with healthcare as with medicine. No plan is much better than a bad plan.

11. However, Trump and his admin do have a plan and is working the plan with people like Rand Paul in Congress. It's not widely known but it's still there. A Reporter should know that fact. The Trump policy is to repeal obamacare by giving people better options and is a good plan

12. It's a long term plan which is a negative but in the long run it will repeal obamacare because no one will be on obamacare. Thus, getting rid of it will be an easy vote at that point. As far as how this effects a blue wave? It doesn't. The anger is there on GOP side.

13. Healthcare doesn't motivate anyone to switch sides as much as it depresses turnout from those who want Obamacare repealed. The dems aren't picking up voters for their "blue wave" with their stupid medicare for all/universal healthcare. That idea was rejected with obamacare.

14. In fact, the more the dems talk about medicare for all; the more they will increase the turnout from those who were sitting out because obamacare repeal wasn't done. They don't want more government healthcare they want it gone. Moving on to point 3.

15. (point 3. The border wall.) This is another DC talking point and bubble think. Pollack writes "The one glaring exception is the border wall, which Trump claims has already begun but which has yet to find the necessary funds, either from Congress or from Mexico....

16...The failure to keep this core promise could keep Trump voters home."

Again keeping voters home is not the same as a blue wave. Depressing turnout is not the same as winning more voters to your side. Outside of that point the writer falsely states "Trump claims has begun"

17. Trump doesn't claim. He states. The evidence is there that the wall has been started. the funds to start the wall have been approved and appropriated and work is ongoing to upgrade 100+miles of current fence and the 28 miles in San Diego can be built anyway Trump wants.

18. There is no "claims". It's a fact. Now you can argue it's not what was promised but the fact is that Trump has gotten over $2 billion in wall funds and is currently putting it to work to build a more secure border. In other words he is keeping his promise.

19. Voters put the blame on the wall squarely on the Congress and most paying attention know it's the dems as well as the GOPe in the Senate/house holding it up not Trump. So his voters are MORE LIKELY to turnout in Senate/house elections to vote out the Resistance to the wall.

20. The resistance to the wall/Ice may push up resistance votes on the dem side but it will also push up GOP turnout to get the Wall funded and ICE secured. At the least it's a wash on the blue wave. Most likely it's a plus AGAINST the blue wave. Moving on to point 4

21. (point 4 The tone.) This is the old talking point that Trump's tone turns off people. Yes it does, mostly those that put tone over substance. Pollack makes the false comparison to Obama being tough on his opponents and that caused voters to rebuke Obama at the polls.

22. That is just hogwash. The voters rebuked Obama not because of his tone. He was Mister tone over substance personified. Voters rebuked Obama at the polls because his polices were idiotic and hated by the American people. Trump's aren't idiotic and they are working (4.1% GDP)

23. So while Trump's tone may not win over many who don't like it. It will not motivate people to rush to rebuke him especially Republicans (90% approval). The talking point itself was debunked in Nov 2016. Most people just don't care much about tone. Moving on to point 5.

25. (point 5 Media war.) this has to be the most stupid talking point out of the bunch. It's been proved over and over during the last 2 years that the media has zero power to move the needle when it comes to Trump. They are pushing 90% negative news on Trump and no one cares.

26. The media goes 24/7 on the Russian hoax & Russia polls at less than 1% of what people care about. After every concentrated media attack Trump's approval grows. Pollack contends the media has hurt down ticket races yet that's not the record. (8/9 wins) in special house votes.

27. In fact the media war is helping Trump. The more stupid the media acts the less people pay attention and the more mistakes Trump can get away with. If the media was fair, it would be much harder for Trump in the grand scheme of things. The media war is not pushing a blue wave

28. It is keeping the dems base agitated but on the flip side, it's just pissing off the Trump base and many will vote to show the media they have no power. From a blue wave stand point it's at best a wash.

29. Pollack finished the article stating that the GOP only has two options to stop this mythical blue wave he has dreamed up. Shut down the gov over the border wall and/or run against Pelosi. Again this is bubblethink. Trump and the GOP have several options to counter the dems.

30. Just some of those options off the top of my head. Trump explaining his healthcare plan and efforts, Trump making the races national while promoting local concerns, The GOP using funds to GOTV to match the dems enthusiasm. Trump visiting the border showing the wall upgrades.

31. The Gop passing some bills in Congress like tax cuts ver 2.0, farm bill, welfare reform, Trump having more success in foreign policy. Trump Trade deals. Etc. ETC. We have 90 days and Trump. I like our chances.