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Eppur si muove @razor0fOccam
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
peter wason’in 2-4-6 deneyi de meshurdur. beyefendiyi su meshur 4 kart deneyinden taniyoruz. hani sonunda meta kosullu mantiktan yoksun oldugumuzu ve nihayet hepimizin aslinda sözelci (sosyal) oldugunu haykiran deney :D
2-4-6’da deneklere belli bir mantik oruntusunde olacak sekilde uc sayi verilecek. deneklerin amaci “mantik oruntusunu bulmak”. nasil bulacaklar? onlar da mantik oruntusu tahminleriyle uclu setlerle sayi soyleyecekler. deneyci ise oruntu dogru/yanlis diyerek yonlendirecek..
wason, 2-4-6 diyerek basliyor. deneklerin ciddi kismi enteresan sekilde kafalarindaki tahmin oruntusunden hic kopmadan inandiklari oruntuye gore sayi serileri vermeye devam ediyorlar. basitce, “ikiserli artan sayilar” oruntusunu bulamiyorlar.
devpsy.org/teaching/metho…
confirmation bias -teyit yanilgisi- ilk defa bu deney sonrasinda teorize ediliyor. tahminlerimize ve suphelerimize, bize akan bilgilere delillere aldirmaksizin sikica sarilma egiliminde oldugumuzu cikarsamis buradan peter wason. aferin 👏
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