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Can Okar @canokar
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Turkey's New Economic Programme making some pretty brave assumptions about the lira/dollar rate in its projections.

USD/TRY in 2018 assumed at 4.71 (assumes rate at average 5.1 for rest of year which seems ambitious)
2019 at 5.60
2020 at 6.00
2021 at 6.20

It's 6.27 right now.
For the 2018 average, I pulled down all daily rates thus far this year. We are currently at 4.55 year-to-date. Modelling that out for the rest of the year, 4.7 seems almost impossible. Even if it simply stays at 6.2-6.3, it will exceed 5.00 for the year.
When Turkey did its five year plan in 2013, it assumed USD/TRY at 1.97 (fun picture attached). If the exchange rate assumption doesn't hold, nothing holds. It would be good to know how they were calculated this time because the 2018 number gives zero confidence.
Small correction: the average in 2018 is assumed at 4.90 (I put in the wrong figure in the calculation) so USD/TRY would need to fall to 5.7 for the rest of the year starting tomorrow for the assumption to work. I would still call this unrealistic.
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