Wow! Democrat @TJCoxCongress might still upset @RepDavidValadao in #CA21. The Republican leads by 1,981 votes but provisional ballots appear to be breaking strongly for the Democrat (which is almost always true in CA) and theres a lot of provisional ballots left 1/
As @Redistrict notes, provisionals broke 2.5 to 1 (71% to 29%) in favor of Cox (D) in Tulare Co, which Valadao (R) won (56% to 43%).
Fresno and Kern County are still outstanding.
Fresno Co has 15,000 VBM and 24,000 provisional ballots to count - roughly 15% from #CA21 2/
Fresno and Kern County are still outstanding.
Fresno Co has 15,000 VBM and 24,000 provisional ballots to count - roughly 15% from #CA21 2/
So back of the napkin calculation says Fresno Co has 6K uncounted votes in #CA21. (It could be more or less - the registrar doesn't give exact numbers by CD).
But a reasonable estimate is:
2250 VBM
3600 Provisional ballots
If these ballots break 2-1 for Cox, the Dem wins 3/
But a reasonable estimate is:
2250 VBM
3600 Provisional ballots
If these ballots break 2-1 for Cox, the Dem wins 3/
This doesn't account for VBM and Provisionals from one of the biggest and most favorable counties - Kern Co. Cox (D) is winning Kern Co 60-40 so it's safe to estimate that these outstanding votes break very favorably for him in #CA21.
In #CA21, it looks like the Democrat Cox is going to pull of a stunning come from behind win in the bottom of the 9th, leaving CA with 7 Republican members.
(Which I predicted in Feb 2017 btw)
(Which I predicted in Feb 2017 btw)
