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Simon Usherwood @Usherwood
, 11 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
A couple of points about contingency planning, as you'll be reading stuff about this today:

1/
There are two stages to contingency work: planning and action

2/
It's one thing to draw up a contingency plan (working out what you need to do), but another to then start putting it into effect (actually doing what you need to do)

3/
Evidence suggests that while most effected bodies have contingency plans, far fewer have started to operationalise them

theguardian.com/politics/2018/…

4/
So what, you ask?

Well, planning is cheap, ops is pricey

5/
Contingencies might involve changing supply chains, production systems, relations with suppliers and customers, legal restructuring, arrangements for staffing changes and more

6/
None of those things can be done overnight, or without cost (that's part of the reason why not everyone has kicked them into action), so it's already now that some choices have to be made

7/
(You'll recall the NAO rpt on border checks (nao.org.uk/report/the-uk-…): that's been a relatively long-running contingency, and it's very much not on schedule)

8/
A key part of the issue is that businesses are assuming they'll have to make changes for post-EU life in any case, but don't know how (since the future relationship isn't clear), so they face a situation where whatever happens they sink costs into a future that doesn't happen

9/
Absent a clear line on what's going to happen in Parliament in the next weeks, delay has been much the order of the day

The trade-off will be some frenzied action once it is known and an increased risk on non-preparedness for no-deal

10/
In sum, political timelines aren't business (or citizen) timelines

/end
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