, 15 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
The day after MV2. Let's try to stand back a bit and assess. 1/
The instrument agreed with the EU was clearly inadequate for those hating the backstop's indefinite character. AG Cox was not only honest; he had no other choice, as all lawyers agreed there was no scope for unilateral exit from the backstop. 2/
It's in a sense good that this did not pull the deal through. The new docs were screaming, throughout, that the backstop would be ditched for alternative arrangements, sooner than possible. 3/
The thing is: we've been there ever since the EURef, and no one has found the unicorns which obviate the need for a hard border, and which are not some version of the backstop. Basically, there are no alternative arrangements. 4/
So if the Deal had scraped through, we would have been back to square one immediately: endless and meaningless negotiations on alternatives for the backstop. 5/
But of course it was not the indefinite nature of the backstop which caused ERG and DUP resistance. They realise these things, and fear that the UK Govt itself will opt for something like the backstop for the future relationship: a customs union. 6/
If now the idea is to look for a future relationship which finds cross-party support, the customs union idea will re-appear. The obvious political difficulty with it is that it undermines the top Brexit benefit which Brexiteers want: trade deals. 7/
Not that that is a real benefit. But it can at least be portrayed as such, and is the one feature which combines the Brexit hypocrisy of "openness" with old imperialist grandeur. Many Tory voters would love it. 8/
But participation in the internal market is more important than the customs union. Those proposing an EEA arrangement realise this. 9/
EEA plus customs union then? Great, but if you add the (largely uncontested) security cooperation, well why not just remain? At least you don’t lose control so much. Definitely doesn’t sound like taking it back! 10/
The forward-looking case that remains is something EEA like, but with more of a say in lawmaking. Associate membership of some kind. But that’s to be invented, and these febrile times are not the best for bringing cool heads together. 11/
At any rate the Art 50 extension will need to be a long one. And the arguments for another People’s Vote are getting stronger by the day. Clearly it’s Westminster which is failing here. Don’t think the EU will mainly be blamed. 12/
So the time is ripe for an EU initiative of some kind: generous and principled. One element of it could be: we’ll start future relationship negotiations as soon as Westminster has agreed on a particular end destination. 13/
The other element could be an unequivocal statement: we’d loce you to remain. 14/
We are living the birth of European politics. Why doesn’t the EU leadership talk more directly to Westminster and to EU audiences? It’s high noon. END
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