Thomas de Waal Profile picture
Jun 21, 2019 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Some comments from afar on last night’s violence in #Tbilisi Several things can be true at the same time:

1. The police used violent force, apparently without warning, to break up a mostly peaceful crowd, hurting dozens of people. That's unacceptable. hrw.org/news/2019/06/2…
2. There were undoubtedly some provocateurs in that crowd, probably die-hard Saakashvili supporters , who wanted to storm parliament and force regime change. And last night was also deja vu of the night Misha used violence in Tbilisi in 2007. hrw.org/report/2007/12…
3. Ordinary Georgians were understandably offended at the sight of a Russian MP sitting in their speaker’s chair. Dip. relations were broken off over Abkhazia and S Ossetia in 2008 for good reason. There are still at least 7000 Russian troops illegally in Abkhazia and S Ossetia.
4. Georgian-Russian people-to-people relations are improving, bad if they suffer from this. Trade has resumed and around 1mln Russian tourists visited last year. That’s a stabilizing factor in relations, strengthens moderate voices over the crazies. facebook.com/watch/?v=10154…
5. It’s also very good for the Georgian economy. Armchair Western warriors who advocate shutting it all down, should explain to the Georgian winemakers and hoteliers how they are going to make up their earnings. tbilinomics.com/index.php/en/e…
6. Georgia lacks leadership. None of the big figures—Ivanishvili, president Zurabishvili, Misha—speaks for the whole people. They engage in angry divisive rhetoric. Patriarch Ilya used to play that unifying role but is now too old to do so. foreignpolicy.com/2018/11/05/whe…,
7. One day I hope Georgians will be able to sort out their political differences without going out on Rustaveli Avenue.

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More from @Tom_deWaal

Oct 16, 2023
1 Read in full Pres. Aliyev’s victory speech from Khankendi/Stepanakert yesterday—and be warned. It’s an angry speech, dwelling on past grievances, with nothing about the future or reconciliation. No olive branches.
president.az/en/articles/vi…
2 The choreography underlines that. Delivered in camouflage fatigues in an empty square in Stepanakert/Khankendi. Aliyev was later filmed touring abandoned streets and offices alone.
3. The message is very much “#Karabakh without Armenians.” Delivered in the Azeri language to the “Azerbaijani people.” Note: “All the people of Azerbaijan are praising Allah.” The “we” here doesn't include the Armenians who fled 3 weeks ago, there's no call to them to return.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 8, 2023
1 Pay attention to #Georgia 🇬🇪 today! A THREAD Last night police in Tbilisi forcibly dispersed a protest against a new Foreign Agent law rushed through parliament. It’s an escalation by the ever more authoritarian Georgian Dream govt
2 For good coverage see the websites of @CivilGe
@JAMnewsCaucasus @OCMediaorg (and its @mari_nikuradze) All are small independent outlets, which are incidentally threatened by the new legislation. Also look at @formulaGe who had these iconic pictures
3 The bill and crackdown are a massive challenge to the EU, which offered GE conditional candidate perspective last year. “This law is incompatible with EU values and standards. It goes against Georgia’s stated objective of joining the European Union,”
eeas.europa.eu/eeas/georgia-s…
Read 12 tweets
Mar 7, 2023
Important days in the war in eastern Ukraine, a major crisis in Georgia, but don’t forget also the situation in and around #Karabakh. Here's the piece I published a week ago on “Armenia’s insecurity” for @Carnegie_Europe @Judy_Dempsey
carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurop…
Since then the situation has got a bit worse. The Lachin Corridor to Karabakh remains closed to all but a few vehicles, chiefly the ICRC. And three Armenian policemen and two Azerbaijani soldiers were reported killed in two separate incidents. rferl.org/a/armenia-azer…
My main point: the ARM-AZ situation is very volatile, it can tip into more violence, or there could be a framework peace agreement. PM Pashinyan has gone out on a limb, but Pres. Aliyev continues to press and make the Armenians insecure--a situation which Russia exploits.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 13, 2022
1/ If you haven’t been watching the situation in the so-called #Lachin Corridor, the only road connecting Armenia and #Karabakh, you should now. The Armenian-Azerbaijani situation may be sliding slowly back into conflict. A short thread.
2/ Self-declared Azerbaijani environmentalists evidently sent there by the government in Baku (Azerbaijan’s version of “Little Green Men”?) have been blocking the Lachin road and therefore access in and out for local Armenians.
eurasianet.org/azerbaijanis-a…
3/ Azerbaijan has legitimate concerns about alleged new mines being laid around the corridor. But as this expert hints Azerbaijan's agenda is much bigger than this: “the establishment of Baku’s sovereign rights over the entire territory of Karabakh.”
jam-news.net/azerbaijan-is-…
Read 8 tweets
Jun 9, 2022
1 Credit to @Kamal_Makili for setting out the case for Aaland Islands style autonomy for the Karabakh Armenians very eloquently here.
commonspace.eu/node/11445
2 As Kamal himself points out, neither Baku nor Stepanakert is interested in discussing this at the moment. But he makes some important points, including about how international guarantees underpin the Aaland Islands model.
3 In my recent (not so much noticed) article for Analyticon I also mention the three big Helsinki Final Act principles of territorial integrity, self-determination and non-use of force as 3 conceptual pillars of a peace process.
theanalyticon.com/en/may-2022-en…
Read 9 tweets
Jun 1, 2022
Here is a piece commissioned by the Armenian online analytical journal Analyticon on the new EU mediated ARM-AZ talks theanalyticon.com/en/may-2022-en…
Three questions. The role of Russia? What now for the Minsk Group. (It’s frozen but not entirely dead). And what about the #Karabakh Armenians? Territorial independence is off the table but, as I’ve said for many years, the question of their security is paramount.
In a new statement Charles Michel’s spokesperson clarified some details and also stresses the importance of public diplomacy and “rights and security” consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press…
Read 4 tweets

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