Ulrich Speck Profile picture
Aug 16, 2019 3 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Exactly. Germany is facing isolation. UK away, Italy on different planet, Poland keen to solidifying US relations, France pragmatic and not interested in German symbolic declarations: instead of providing a broadly acceptable way ahead, Germany lost in new world of power politics
A European foreign and security policy based on fundamentalist rejection of US is not going to fly in Europe - and is self-defeating. Germany should instead be pragmatic: build consensus in Europe and bring this weight into the cooperation with the US - co-shaping western policy.
In other words: stay transatlantic but become more European. Way towards this is to listen to others and find consensus among Europeans as they are, not declare own goals as being „European“ (as we all so often do in Europe).

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More from @ulrichspeck

Mar 21
Ob Scholz Mützenich grünes Licht für den "Einfrieren"-Versuchsballon gegeben hat oder nicht ist letzten Endes zweitrangig. Scholz könnte die Führungsposition ausfüllen, indem er öffentlich sichtbar an einer Ukraine-Strategie arbeitet und das auch immer wieder mitteilt.
Er tut dies nicht, sondern verlässt sich auf wenige Formeln, die er vor zwei Jahren entwickelt hat, weitgehend, indem er an amerikanischen strategische Leitplanken orientiert hat.
Das Führungsvakuum wird dann eben von anderen gefüllt, ob mit oder ohne Billigung des Kanzlers.
Read 14 tweets
Mar 15
What France, Poland and Germany should come up with today:

1) Russia doesn't want to negotiate, it wants to subjugate Ukraine, erase it as a sovereign state

2) If Russia succeeds, it probably will attack other European countries. The European security order is under attack.
3) Frustrating Russia's goals in Ukraine is the best way to force Russia to change course -- away from neo-imperialism and military aggression.

4) The US has played a decisive role in the past, we're very thankful but we're ready to take over from here.
5) What matters most now is military support for Ukraine. We have a detailed plan to do so: short-term emergency, mid-term to bring Ukraine in a position of strength, long-term to deter Russia from attacking again.

6) We're ready to raise our military support: whatever it takes
Read 4 tweets
Mar 11
Problem mit Scholz und Ukraine ist nicht, wie von Unterstützern insinuiert, dass er "besonnen" ist.

Das Problem ist, dass der Rahmen der Besonnenheit weitaus mehr militärische Unterstützung der Ukraine zulässt, quantitativ wie qualitativ.
Am Anfang des Krieges war die Eskalationsangst stärker begründet. Doch in den vergangenen zwei Jahren haben sich gewohnheitsmäßige Regeln etabliert, was ein nicht-eskalatorisches Verhalten betrifft, an die sich Russland hält -- aus Sorge um Eskalation.
Deutschland wie ganz Europa sind längst in einer Risikozone; es geht darum, Risiken gegeneinander abzuwägen, ein Heraustreten aus dem Risiko, mit Russland früher oder später in direkten Konflikt zu geraten, ist für Deutschland unmöglich.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 3
Macrons Vorstoß hat noch einmalmal deutlich gemacht, wie wenig Scholz die Sprache der Macht versteht. Er lebt noch immer in der Wunschwelt der Globalisierung. In der neuen Welt der kompetitiven Machtpolitik wirkt er wie ein hilflos Getriebener.
Das ist recht dramatisch angesichts der Tatsache, dass Europa Führung braucht, die nach Lage der Dinge vorwiegend aus Deutschland kommen muss.
Öffentlichkeit, Parlament, wichtige Minister sind alle bereit für eine entschlossenere Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik, nur der Kanzler findet die Richtung nicht und lässt sich von seinen Ängsten treiben.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 2
It's simple: Putin is dead-set to destroy Ukraine as an independent state and nation. Whether he achieves this through war or Minsk-like agreements, is secondary for him. Of course he prefers a less costly agreement.
Each agreement for Putin is fine as long as it makes sure that Ukraine cannot resist to Russian pressure in the future.
If there will an agreement, more or less explicit, on a new status quo, the one thing that matters is that Russia can't attack or intimidate Ukraine again.
Read 16 tweets
Feb 28
Macron wanted to achieve two things with his Ukraine conference and his press conference: send the message to Putin that Europe won’t let Russia win in Ukraine, and claim the position of European leadership.

If this now looks more like a failure than a success, what went wrong?
While Macron’s rhetoric is coherent and convincing, it is not matched by action, and action speaks louder than words, especially during wartime.
France has been very far behind the US (41 billion) and also behind Germany (6,7 billion) in military support in 2022/23 with 3,8 billion. For 2024 Germany has promised over 7 billion, France „up to“ 3 billion.
Read 8 tweets

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