, 6 tweets, 1 min read
West must understand that reconstruction in Syria, if possible under the conditions of continued low-scale warfare, is not politically neutral. /1
„Assad and his backers view reconstruction as a means of consolidating the regime’s victory – and, for Russia in particular, of obliging the West to accept the situation.“ /2 ecfr.eu/article/commen…
„Assad wants to use reconstruction to lock in wider international reintegration, again not only to secure economic assistance but also to put the seal of legitimacy on his military victory.“ /3
Regime security is key for Assad and Russia, and they will continue to achieve it mainly via terror not welfare of Syrians, that’s their modus operandi. Western-financed reconstruction an additional means to raise funds which will most likely go in pockets of regime backers. /4
Under these conditions Syria will remain unstable. Very unlikely that refugees return in a country ruled by terror. /5
So if all reconstruction money will achieve is the consolidation of Assad and the ex post legitimation of Russian and Iranian warfare and their gain in regional influence: why on earth should Europe, and especially Germany, pay for that? /6
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