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With the naming of Sayyid Haitham as the new Sultan of Oman, the long-standing uncertainty over Oman’s succession is gone. But inevitably; as Oman’s sole ruler in the fifty years since independence, Sultan Qaboos is a hard act to follow.
The new Sultan inherits a host of economic challenges as Oman struggles to wean itself from its traditional dependence on oil-fuelled public spending, and faces entrenched high expectations that the state will provide jobs and services for the youth.
In recent years Oman has come under pressure from some neighbours to be more aligned with their foreign policy, instead of maintaining the approach of neutrality and non-intervention that has served it for 50 years.
The fact Oman hosted the secret back channel talks between the US and Iran, which paved the way for the JCPOA, caused a rift with some of the neighbours who were furious they had not been informed.
Saudi and UAE media and social media started to portray Oman as pro-Iranian, because it kept high level ties to Iran, and strongly opposed military engagement in Syria (where others armed the opposition) or Yemen (where it did not take part in the Gulf coalition)
During that time, while Omanis kept a united public front (as it is not a country with freedom of speech), some Omanis privately expressed discontent that they were too far apart from their neighbours, and wanted to show solidarity with the Syrian civilians being killed by Assad.
But over time, even in recent months, more have come round to the Omani leadership’s way of thinking, or have seen the benefits of having a Gulf country that has lines of communication to Iran, to the Houthis in Yemen, and many others. UAE and Saudi talk more of de-escalation.
Oman’s foreign policy may well continue in the same tradition. The new Sultan will neeed to balance deference to SQ’s legacy with establishing his own project. It now seems natural this project will be to focus on the economy.
SQ was a huge figure who ruled for the entire life of most Omanis whose image was everywhere. Reverence for him has been institutionalised as a social norm. Yet in recent years there was some unease about succession uncertainty & need for a younger generation to come through
There were differences between a generation who saw him turn their county from poor backwater to modern state, and the younger generation who saw their lifestyle unlikely to match that of their parents.
We see this generational dynamic in many contexts as the leader or party who led independence faces a new generation for whom that is ancient history. Even in South Africa recently, I saw this with student attitudes to the ANC.
So the new Sultan has a huge opportunity to focus on Oman’s economy and, if he is willing, bring a new generation into policy and let it have a voice.
However, 1 of the reasons SQ is a hard act to follow is that he had mastered a complex balance of internal interests, sitting at the top of a system with many overlapping and rival institutions. The transition will naturally unsettle this as different players jostle for position
A key uncertainty, which will be hard to observe, is what impact this will have on the extensive and powerful security services. They are subtler than in neighbouring states. Oman watches everyone rather than jailing everyone. But criticism is often seen as a security threat.
Oman does not have the political prisoners or prison torture seen in some neighbouring states, but that is a low bar. Freedom of association and expression are not accepted as principles. Yet in their own way Omani youth seem to want more of a voice
On social media youth have shown they want to talk and debate, and they are vocal. There have been recurring protests, mainly over unemployment, but with a few voices asking for constitutional monarchy, more transparency, more chance to speak.
There is an opportunity now for a new Sultan to speak directly to this generation and welcome their voice. The next few years will be hard for the economy, and it may be tempting to deter complaints, but Oman needs the talent and the buy in of the younger generation
I’m speaking from a culture that values criticism more than most, but in the Gulf in general the allergy to criticism creates blind spots; defines enemies and disloyalty too widely; and loses opportunities for constructive contributions (“why change when everything is perfect?”)
There had been some speculation the succession might involve a surprise leap to the new generation. Will be interesting to see if we see some younger faces in the cabinet now.
A critical issue will be addressing youth expectations of the economy. The traditional social contract has become unaffordable. Beyond the country’s impressive economists and technocrats, public awareness of the scale of the economic challenges seems to be very limited
Unemployment, budget cuts and debt are key challenges. The state of the public finances implies there will be relative austerity, but response to protests since 2011 has been to create more government jobs. Planned subsidy cuts have been rolled back after social media criticism.
In this context, there could be offers of bailouts from neighbours, or the kind of infrastructure projects that richer Gulf states are backing in Bahrain. But Oman will be wary of the unspoken conditions for these loans. Bahrain isn’t a model it wants to follow.
Before Trump, some in Oman had hoped they’d benefit from Iran coming out of sanctions, the huge potential for its economy to thrive after being artificially held back for so long, and promises of economic cooperation projects.
China has been a significant investor in Oman, whose ports are important to China’s Belt and Road and Indian Ocean strategy. Will be interesting to see where Sayyid Haitham goes first as Sultan: China rather than the UK?
Finally there’s not much written about Oman’s internal politics. One diplomat based in Oman told me years ago “No one writes about Oman, because we want to go back.”
I wrote about some of Oman’s challenges in this 2015 report on the future of the Gulf, and while a lot has changed in the Middle East in the last 5 years, these challenges basically haven’t: chathamhouse.org/sites/default/…
Oman needs an MBS for economic policy, without the foreign policy.
Imagine if the new leadership can energise policy towards youth, put the transition away from oil at the forefront of policy, but with a foreign policy focused on peace and balance. Oman could offer a powerful combination.
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