Thomas de Waal Profile picture
Jan 29, 2020 14 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/14 Thread. January 31 and the UK’s loss of influence in the world. Brexit means we lose the multiplier effect of being part of an EU club of 28 and become instead a club of 1. This as the FCO core budget has been cut to a historic low of £1.1bln, or 0.1 percent of GDP.
2/14 The goal is now to fight to stay still. As @CER_IanBond points out today, "Weakening foreign policy ties with the EU might make sense if the UK wanted to pursue a radically different international course after Brexit," but we don't!
cer.eu/publications/a…
3/14 Here are six more malign Brexit effects:
Loss of EU multiplier effect. As FCO budget has been cut, we have pooled expertise with EU colleagues across the world, and with increasingly powerful EEAS, which in 2018 had 4,169 staff--compared to FCO’s 4,003.
4/14 As @SimonFraser00 says "the UK used EU membership as a ‘crutch’ to arrest declining global influence whilst our French and German counterparts used their membership as a ‘springboard’ to support and enhance global profiles and trade priorities.”
bfpg.co.uk/wp-content/upl…
5/14 Consular access.
Multiplier effect also applies to consular assistance for UK tourists and visitors in trouble. Under the EU’s “right to equal treatment” UK citizens can currently access all other EU delegations for help abroad. No longer.
6/14 As the EU says: “EU citizens are entitled to request help from the embassy or consulate of any other EU member state. In other words, member states must assist unrepresented EU citizens on the same conditions as their own nationals.”
consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/co…
7/14 Losing the "multilateral multiplier." In many international organizations—World Bank, G7, G20, OSCE—the EU coordinates policy and response for all members. We lose that obviously. To get effective policy here, the UK will need to upgrade capacity significantly.
8/14 What’s more, we need to start again at WTO and create a new permanent UK delegation there to represent our post-EU trade interests, an operation the UK ambassador to international organizations conceded “has no precedent.”
blogs.fco.gov.uk/julianbraithwa…
9/14 Losing a role in EU international missions
Last March the UK lost the command of #Atalanta, the EU mission combating piracy in the Indian Ocean. The HQ, employing 101 people, moved from Northwood outside of London to Rota in Spain.
thelocal.es/20190329/spain…
10/14 And of course the European Medicines Agency moved to Amsterdam and the European Banking Authority relocated to Paris. theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
11/14 Loss of leverage. Until end of 2020, probably beyond, we are a demandeur with EU member states, all energy focused on a new economic deal that salvages some benefits of membership. That hands powerful leverage to any EU member-states with bilateral issues with UK.
12/14 So we have lost our traditional influence in Cyprus as Republic of Cyprus reminds UK that it has a veto. Spain will also play the card of Gibraltar--which is already facing an economic squeeze.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
13/14 People. Finally, on Jan 31, many fine UK nationals will start to lose their EU jobs. Many will stay but eg in EUSR Caucasus mission Friday is the cut-off date. Many of the hundreds of UK EU officials will stay but of course this career path is now denied to the young.
14/14 Wish us luck. We need it!

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More from @Tom_deWaal

Oct 16, 2023
1 Read in full Pres. Aliyev’s victory speech from Khankendi/Stepanakert yesterday—and be warned. It’s an angry speech, dwelling on past grievances, with nothing about the future or reconciliation. No olive branches.
president.az/en/articles/vi…
2 The choreography underlines that. Delivered in camouflage fatigues in an empty square in Stepanakert/Khankendi. Aliyev was later filmed touring abandoned streets and offices alone.
3. The message is very much “#Karabakh without Armenians.” Delivered in the Azeri language to the “Azerbaijani people.” Note: “All the people of Azerbaijan are praising Allah.” The “we” here doesn't include the Armenians who fled 3 weeks ago, there's no call to them to return.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 8, 2023
1 Pay attention to #Georgia 🇬🇪 today! A THREAD Last night police in Tbilisi forcibly dispersed a protest against a new Foreign Agent law rushed through parliament. It’s an escalation by the ever more authoritarian Georgian Dream govt
2 For good coverage see the websites of @CivilGe
@JAMnewsCaucasus @OCMediaorg (and its @mari_nikuradze) All are small independent outlets, which are incidentally threatened by the new legislation. Also look at @formulaGe who had these iconic pictures
3 The bill and crackdown are a massive challenge to the EU, which offered GE conditional candidate perspective last year. “This law is incompatible with EU values and standards. It goes against Georgia’s stated objective of joining the European Union,”
eeas.europa.eu/eeas/georgia-s…
Read 12 tweets
Mar 7, 2023
Important days in the war in eastern Ukraine, a major crisis in Georgia, but don’t forget also the situation in and around #Karabakh. Here's the piece I published a week ago on “Armenia’s insecurity” for @Carnegie_Europe @Judy_Dempsey
carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurop…
Since then the situation has got a bit worse. The Lachin Corridor to Karabakh remains closed to all but a few vehicles, chiefly the ICRC. And three Armenian policemen and two Azerbaijani soldiers were reported killed in two separate incidents. rferl.org/a/armenia-azer…
My main point: the ARM-AZ situation is very volatile, it can tip into more violence, or there could be a framework peace agreement. PM Pashinyan has gone out on a limb, but Pres. Aliyev continues to press and make the Armenians insecure--a situation which Russia exploits.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 13, 2022
1/ If you haven’t been watching the situation in the so-called #Lachin Corridor, the only road connecting Armenia and #Karabakh, you should now. The Armenian-Azerbaijani situation may be sliding slowly back into conflict. A short thread.
2/ Self-declared Azerbaijani environmentalists evidently sent there by the government in Baku (Azerbaijan’s version of “Little Green Men”?) have been blocking the Lachin road and therefore access in and out for local Armenians.
eurasianet.org/azerbaijanis-a…
3/ Azerbaijan has legitimate concerns about alleged new mines being laid around the corridor. But as this expert hints Azerbaijan's agenda is much bigger than this: “the establishment of Baku’s sovereign rights over the entire territory of Karabakh.”
jam-news.net/azerbaijan-is-…
Read 8 tweets
Jun 9, 2022
1 Credit to @Kamal_Makili for setting out the case for Aaland Islands style autonomy for the Karabakh Armenians very eloquently here.
commonspace.eu/node/11445
2 As Kamal himself points out, neither Baku nor Stepanakert is interested in discussing this at the moment. But he makes some important points, including about how international guarantees underpin the Aaland Islands model.
3 In my recent (not so much noticed) article for Analyticon I also mention the three big Helsinki Final Act principles of territorial integrity, self-determination and non-use of force as 3 conceptual pillars of a peace process.
theanalyticon.com/en/may-2022-en…
Read 9 tweets
Jun 1, 2022
Here is a piece commissioned by the Armenian online analytical journal Analyticon on the new EU mediated ARM-AZ talks theanalyticon.com/en/may-2022-en…
Three questions. The role of Russia? What now for the Minsk Group. (It’s frozen but not entirely dead). And what about the #Karabakh Armenians? Territorial independence is off the table but, as I’ve said for many years, the question of their security is paramount.
In a new statement Charles Michel’s spokesperson clarified some details and also stresses the importance of public diplomacy and “rights and security” consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press…
Read 4 tweets

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