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I've seen intense concern on twitter about the possibility of unseen, exponential community transmission. A short thread about that. First up, I graphed the NSW testing statistics over time. There has been a rapid increase in the total number of tests. 1/n #covid19au
2/ Tests are finding cases (orange bar). The major driver of new cases is overseas travellers (blue bar). NSW Health is so far keeping on top of contact tracing (yellow bar). And there's very little increase in cases of unknown source ('community transmission,' green bar).
3/ There's a mistaken belief that Covid-19 can spread rapidly, undetected through the population.

However, approx 20% of all cases will need major medical intervention.

When sick people seek care, their contacts are traced. That generates data++ about transmission dynamics.
4/ I have argued that a general stay-home order is an important and effective thing we can do to curb the epidemic. This does not have to be motivated by panic about community transmission.… #covid19au
5/ There's moral panic at the moment about people who go to beaches, even though they obey physical separation recs. This is misguided.

In order to work, a #StayHome strategy requires *most* people to adhere. The goal is to bring the R0—the number of new infex per case—under 1.
6/ That's a good thing, too, because we know we need to keep people in essential services working in the community. -ends-
7/ Last tweet I promise!* I completely forgot—I meant to share the Google Sheet link so you can check my numbers:…

Please—let me know if you spot errors in numbers/calculations but I can't argue the broader point. #covid19au
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