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THREAD- In a rare move, US federal prosecutors are seeking to withdraw a criminal case against an Iranian banker who was convicted of violating US sanctions. It's potentially a vital development in US-Iran relations. why? 1/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@realdonaltrymp willingness of a big deal with Iran shows its political weight as one of the last chances to achieve something in foreign policy before election. Prisoner swap raised speculations, but for several reasons, the political atmosphere in Tehran resists a big deal 2/
Trust on Rouhani's foreign policy team to achieve a meaningful deal with the US is in record low. The JCPOA is widely seen as a failure & @JZarif team is argued to be responsible for bad negotiation, thus perceived to be disqualified for the next attempt among IR leadership 3/
The argument on JCPOA's bad negotiation is instrumentally used in political competitions. Hardliner camps inc. parliament Speaker, @mb_ghalibaf employ the arguments to block @HassanRouhani. End of presidency in a mess reduce Rouhani's chance of leadership position in future 4/
Also, #soleimani assassination has made it hard to openly talk with the US. New energizing rhetoric cheered around his death that incentivizes the core ideological supporters of IR is big enough to not be lost with an immediate vague talk with @realDonaldTrump 5/
The current environment resembles the last year of Ahmadinejad in office when he initiated secret talks with the US but Rouhani finished it with a JCPOA. A similar scenario might happen now. 6/
If a hardline president takes the office next year and makes the deal, it will help the IR to boost the legitimacy of hardliners, its core supporters, who are the pillars of state security. While it shows their skills in mitigating national challenges 7/
One condition may strategically impact the above developments in IR internal politics & alter hardliners blockade of @HassanRouhani initiatives. If @realDonaldTrump shows a meaningful change of policy in its 'maximum pressure'. 8/
Some sort of sanction relief or it softer execution, an extension of waivers on Iran's regional trade, or regional concessions about the US extended deterrence model toward Saudi, would be all options help @HassanRouhani to break resistance against a new deal in Tehran 9/
In any case, @realDonaldTrump should offer a valid incentive able to change strategic calculus in Tehran. He needs to make hard decisions to finally achieve something with Iran 10/
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