Thread by @drsanjaygupta

April 27 was the last time there was a White House coronavirus task force briefing, leaving us with more than a month without regular updates from the group Vice President Mike Pence was tapped to lead. (1/24)

Today, Vice President Pence wrote an op-ed in the @WSJ touting America’s success in fighting the coronavirus writing, “...we are winning the fight against the invisible enemy.” Let’s break down some of his claims this week. (2/24)
on.wsj.com/3ear4r8

PENCE: “While talk of an increase in cases dominates cable news coverage, more than half of states are actually seeing cases decline or remain stable.” (3/24)

Yes, compared to last week, 22 states are seeing a decline in daily cases, 10 are stable, but 18 states have an increase of cases. (4/24)

That’s significant because we have states reopening while cases are still on the rise. Remember, the original White House guidelines said states should have a “downward trajectory” of cases or a declining share of positive tests for a 14-day span before gradually opening. (5/24)

PENCE: “Some of the increase in cases you're seeing in states is a reflection of a dramatic increase in testing." (6/24)

That’s not how this works. This may seem counter intuitive, but if you are doing enough testing, cases should start to go down because you are finding people early before they spread it. Let’s look at a few state examples: (7/24)

New York - testing is clearly up and cases are down (8/24)

Florida - testing is roughly holding steady and yet cases are climbing. (9/24)

Oklahoma - cases are going up while testing has actually been going down (10/24)

Vice President Pence also has touted testing success, saying, “As of this week, we are performing roughly 500,000 tests a day, and more than 23 million tests have been performed in total.” (11/24)

This is true, according to data from the Covid Tracking Project. But that doesn’t mean it’s enough. Researchers at Harvard said we would need 5 mil tests per DAY by early June and 20 mil tests per day by late July to safely reopen (12/24)
bit.ly/2Y7gStP

PENCE: “In recent days, the media has taken to sounding the alarm bells over a “second wave” of coronavirus infections. Such panic is overblown.” (13/24)

The truth is - we are still in the thick of the first wave, technically, so we cannot even begin talking about what a second wave might look like. Take a look. (14/24)

Compare that to what it looked like when Italy saw its new cases dramatically drop off. That’s more of what you want to see to declare the first peak or wave is close to ending. We aren’t there yet. (15/24)

PENCE: “[President Trump] rallied the American people to embrace social-distancing guidelines.” However, we have seen President Trump continue to publicly demonstrate that he does not wear a mask around others. (16/24)

At today’s signing of an executive order for police reform, White House officials were seen standing closely together and talking without masks - including President Trump (17/24)

A recent study published in The Lancet emphasized the importance of masks - There’s a 17.4% chance of transmission if you don’t wear a mask or N95, but only a 3.1% chance if you wear a mask. (18/24)
cnn.it/30OJSsk

And we know that President Trump is planning to hold an indoor rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma where the venue can hold around 20,000 people. He also plans to utilize the convention hall next door that can hold an additional 40,000 people. (19/24)

CDC guidelines for events or gatherings would classify this rally as a high risk event considering it’s indoors, there will be attendees from outside the local area and it’ll be difficult to practice social distancing. (20/24)
bit.ly/2UQG1ak

PENCE: “In a very real sense they’ve flattened the curve. The number of cases in Oklahoma has declined precipitously." (21/24)

Contrary to the Vice President’s claims, the state's infection curve has been rising in recent days. The director of the Tulsa Health Department said he wished the campaign rally would be postponed. (22/24)

While we have flattened the curve in some places, the fight is far from over. And the way to win is not by declaring a premature victory. Yes, scientists all over the world are working to find a vaccine, but we still have to buy them time to do their job. (23/24)

We know that the basics - wearing a mask, staying at home, social distancing and washing our hands - work. But we also need testing, contact tracing and government leadership to make sure we can all beat this thing together. (24/24)