Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Aug 29, 2020 5 tweets 1 min read Read on X
There is talk of conflict in the eastern Mediterranean, but in reality Ankara enjoys creating these crises every month, whether in Libya or Syria or Iraq or now the Med. the idea that Ankara wants a conflict with Greece is false: it knows Greece is not Afrin, it only attack weak
Ankara’s goal is the Ata to try to get some compromise. It talks tonight because it got used to always getting what it wants through threats, just as it got US to leave part of Syria in October 2019, it’s drunk on power. But it knows reality of real conflict with major country
Ankara’s recent military experience is fighting Haftar using Syrian rebels and drones; bragging of fighting the Syrian regime, bombing villages in Iraq, the 2015-2016 PKK conflict in Turkey and attacking innocents like Hevrin Khalaf in 2019. It is wary of major conflict through.
Of course things could spiral out of control. But it is important to understand Ankara’s rhetoric and actions in light of the last years of endless monthly crises that Turkey creates abroad mostly to distract from issues at home since the coup attempt.
This crises-threat model of leadership will continue every month until the current regime leaves power, so it could go on for a decade or more.

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More from @sfrantzman

Mar 28
If there are 30,000 aid trucks “stuck” you would be able to see them from space. That’s 340 miles of trucks.

The IDF says it lets in around 250-300 trucks a day, which means it would take 100+ days to clear all those trucks and by that time there would be more.

Are there really 30,000 “stuck”
My calculation above is based on assuming trucks are around 60 feet long, (60*30000)/5280…
Read 5 tweets
Mar 26
In retrospect it was a big challenge to have the Accords work when the West was giving major non-NATO ally status to the country hosting Hamas that wasn’t part of the accords, essentially backing Hamas and providing an incentive for October 7. It hard to have peace when the whole world basically gives an incentive for war.
There is no excuse for why the West didn’t prevent October 7. Their Major Non-NATO ally was hosting Hamas on October 6. Clearly they felt that carrying out the largest massacre of Jews since the Shoah was fine because there was no incentive toward peace.
Hamas didn’t do October 7 in a vacuum. It felt 100% impunity and knew it would have backing from Russia-Turkey-China-Qatar-Iran and tacit support oddly from the West as well via the non-NATO ally,
Read 6 tweets
Mar 25
An observation: Before October 7, Gulf countries such as the UAE and Bahrain had agreed to peace with Israel and normalization. They were focusing on messages of coexistence. They didn't host the Taliban or Hamas. However, from the West's perspective...hosting the Taliban and Hamas was preferred, and Doha got "major non-NATO ally" status.
In the wake of that, instead of reducing the extremism of Hamas or the Taliban, the Taliban went on to take over Afghanistan and Hamas did October 7. From the moment Hamas did October 7, plunging the region into a horrible war and upsetting the trend towards diplomacy and normalization, the host country of Hamas was rewarded more by the West, and by Israel.
It's interesting. When there is no incentive for peace, then why would countries seek peace? When there is an incentive to host Hamas and have more Oct. 7, then clearly countries will understand that the West prefers countries that host Hamas.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 24
The number of suspects detained in and around Shifa is likely going to approach 1,000 people, of which Israel already says some 500 of them are confirmed Hamas and PIJ members.

This is a huge number of terrorists and alleged terrorists. Several IDF soldiers have been killed in the raid that has gone on for a week.
One would think there would be a lot more coverage of this. For instance tough questions such as how did the staff at Shifa and their international partners not see even ONE of these hundreds of armed male terrorists? They never report or express concern about the presence of these men endangering the hospital and committing war crimes by using the hospital
Where is the needed investigation into this. Why did Hamas think it had a free ticket to return to Shifa in force. How did 500 terrorists so easily return and reconstitute in an area cleared by the IDF in November?
Read 4 tweets
Mar 22
I've been thinking a lot about the push for a ceasefire two weeks ago. There was an increasing chorus demanding a ceasefire even without a deal for hostages. There was a lot of pressure on Israel. It seems that Hamas and PIJ believed the ceasefire would happen and they likely had some advise that they could go to Shifa hospital and reconstitute themselves for the next phase.
They appear to have believed that when the ceasefire was announced they would now be free for several months to rebuild Hamas and PIJ in northern Gaza. This wasn't a few terrorists just coming to the hospital, this was a huge number. It shows they had plans.
Why did they feel this impunity? They knew that previous ties with int'l orgs would mean that the staff at the hospital would never mention their presence, because they have a long tradition of basically using hospitals as command and control nodes. Int'l groups give them cover.
Read 12 tweets
Mar 18
4 months after the IDF's first major battles around Shifa, the clashes have returned because Hamas returned to (or never left) the areas of the hospital.

IDF: "IDF troops are currently conducting a precise operation in the area of the Shifa hospital. The operation is based on intelligence information indicating the use of the hospital by senior Hamas terrorists to conduct and promote terrorist activity."
"Prior to the operation, IDF troops were instructed on the importance of operating cautiously, as well as on the measures to be taken to avoid harm to the patients, civilians, medical staff, and medical equipment. In addition, Arabic speakers have been brought to the area in order to facilitate dialogue with the patients remaining in the hospital. There is no obligation for the patients and medical staff to evacuate."
"Furthermore, IDF troops will continue the humanitarian efforts in the area, both throughout and following the conclusion of the operation, providing food, water, and medical supplies to the patients and civilians in the hospital's compound. The IDF will continue to act in accordance with international law and against the Hamas terrorist organization - which operates from hospitals and civilian infrastructure in a systematic and cynical way, without the distinction between the civilian population and the organization's terrorists."
Read 5 tweets

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