Raoul Pal Profile picture
Sep 21, 2020 3 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Not that it changes anything but #bitcoin looks like its either forming a head and shoulders top (less likely but def possible).
Or its going to re-test the break out and form a wedge (more probable).
Weakness is the opportunity to slowly add. The correlation between risk assets and BTC I think is a passing phase. First you flush out shorter term traders, then if the Fed gets active it should begin to decouple or stocks rally again and bitcoin goes up too. Let's see...

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More from @RaoulGMI

Mar 24
What is Macro/Crypto Summer and why does it matter?

Well, macro summer has started, its the part of The Everything Code cycle where the ISM picks up (GDP growth).... 1/ Image
And that is driven by liquidity, which bottomed at the end of 2022... macro summer and fall are all about liquidity rising and is a core part of The Everything Code thesis... Image
And that, in turn, lifts tech stocks... they LOVE macro summer and fall... Image
Read 10 tweets
Feb 4
It can't be this easy, right?...right? Part 1 - Bitcoin +110% annual returns from doing nothing. Image
It can't be this easy, right?... right? Part 2 - Nasdaq +21% annual returns from doing nothing. Image
Maybe it really is this easy? BTC vs GMI Total Global Liquidity Index (global fiat debasement)... Image
Read 7 tweets
Dec 2, 2023
I thought I'd share a new way of thinking about crypto that might help make sense of it all for you.

This first appeared in my November Global Macro Investor (GMI) monthly. I don't normally share direct work from GMI bit I think its worth it.

Enjoy.

1/ Image
Image
Image
Read 5 tweets
Nov 25, 2023
Raoul's Easy Guide to the Business Cycle and Why it Matters:

Today:

ISM leads GDP by 3 months. ISM is around zero GDP growth currently, so GDP should be low Q4 and Q1.

This is where cyclical stocks, RTY and commodities live, and is why they are subdued. Image
ISM + 5 Months:

But our Lead indicator for ISM has been rising sharply. This is generally where the SPX lives (part cyclical, part growth) and explains the SPX strength vs Russell 2000 (RTY) or commodities... Image
ISM + 11 Months:

Using our GMI Financial Conditons Index, we can peer 11 months into the future, suggesting a strong year in 2024. This is where the growth assets of NDX and Crypto live. This is why they bottomed before everything else... Image
Read 10 tweets
Oct 29, 2023
Crypto💘 Liquidity

1/ Image
It really loves Global M2... this is when BTC outperforms the NDX and crypto becomes the Super Massive Black Hole... Image
Our Weekly Global Liquidity Index is about to break above zero... Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 20, 2023
$SOL - Ive been extremely bullish all year.

It's up 171% this year and we are about to test the big inverse head and shoulders at $30.... next major resistance would likely be $50, once confirmed. 1/ Image
It has broken out vs ETH.... Image
And vs BTC... Image
Read 4 tweets

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