Not that it changes anything but #bitcoin looks like its either forming a head and shoulders top (less likely but def possible).
Or its going to re-test the break out and form a wedge (more probable).
Weakness is the opportunity to slowly add. The correlation between risk assets and BTC I think is a passing phase. First you flush out shorter term traders, then if the Fed gets active it should begin to decouple or stocks rally again and bitcoin goes up too. Let's see...
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What is Macro/Crypto Summer and why does it matter?
Well, macro summer has started, its the part of The Everything Code cycle where the ISM picks up (GDP growth).... 1/
And that is driven by liquidity, which bottomed at the end of 2022... macro summer and fall are all about liquidity rising and is a core part of The Everything Code thesis...
And that, in turn, lifts tech stocks... they LOVE macro summer and fall...
Raoul's Easy Guide to the Business Cycle and Why it Matters:
Today:
ISM leads GDP by 3 months. ISM is around zero GDP growth currently, so GDP should be low Q4 and Q1.
This is where cyclical stocks, RTY and commodities live, and is why they are subdued.
ISM + 5 Months:
But our Lead indicator for ISM has been rising sharply. This is generally where the SPX lives (part cyclical, part growth) and explains the SPX strength vs Russell 2000 (RTY) or commodities...
ISM + 11 Months:
Using our GMI Financial Conditons Index, we can peer 11 months into the future, suggesting a strong year in 2024. This is where the growth assets of NDX and Crypto live. This is why they bottomed before everything else...
It's up 171% this year and we are about to test the big inverse head and shoulders at $30.... next major resistance would likely be $50, once confirmed. 1/