Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Sep 24, 2020 11 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1) Despite the fact that Quebec and Montreal have entered the second wave in the #pandemic, Premier François Legault has maintained that hospitalizations are tracking with optimistic projections made in June. In this thread, I will fact-check this.
2) Since Sept. 1, the province has witnessed a net increase of 69 #COVID hospitalizations, averaging three a day. Compared with scores of hospitalizations reported during the first wave, that number is relatively low. But how does it compare with the projections?
3) In the chart below, the optimistic scenario projected a median of just under 2.5 hospitalizations a day in September. Thus, the current average is at least 20% higher than the government's projections. There’s been a net increase of 40 hospitalizations in the past three days.
4) At the community hospital of Santa Cabrini in Nouveau Rosemont, doctors are treating five patients with #COVID19, including two in the intensive care unit. In July and August, Santa Cabrini did not admit any patients with the #pandemic illness.
5) On Monday, the Jewish General Hospital — a designated #COVID19 treatment centre — had five patients on ventilators, a clear sign the #pandemic has taken a turn for the worse. By Wednesday, that number dropped to two, but there are still seven patients in the ICU.
6) Meanwhile, Montreal’s seven-day rolling average rose to 64.53 #COVID cases per million population Wednesday, up from 61.11 the day before. The chart below shows 146 new cases. That compares with 102 in the more populous city of Toronto.
7) Montreal’s public health department released it weekly portrait of community transmission Wednesday. The chart below reveals surges in a dozen boroughs on the island from Sept. 15 to Sept. 21. The #coronavirus is spreading silently all over the metropolis.
8) For those who doubt Montreal is at the start of a second wave, please take a look at the chart below. It shows the #coronavirus is circulating mostly in the community, unlike in the eldercare homes during the first wave. Health workers area also getting infected again.
9) Strange things appear to be going on in Outremont, as the chart below highlights. It’s too early to tell whether this is a trend or which communities in Outremont are driving this dramatic resurgence, but this definitely calls for greater vigilance.
10) At the neighborhood level, the centre of the city and the east end continue to post big #COVID19 numbers, while Montreal’s West Island is much less affected. (See below.) It’s hard to discern why this is happening other than to note the West Island is less densely populated.
11) After not declaring any #COVID19 fatalities for 10 days, Montreal added one to its death toll Wednesday. It now stands at 3,477. On a personal note, both my children continue to wear masks in class. Their schools each have a confirmed case. End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Mar 13
1) On Tuesday, the Quebec government unveiled its 2024-2025 budget, with the biggest expenditure to be made on health and social services. In this Twitter thread, I assess whether this "Health/Education Priorities" budget lives up to its hype, especially when it comes to seniors.
2) As you can see from the chart below, the lion's share of spending in the budget is for health and social services, pegged at $61.9 billion — up by 4.17% from the year before. In contrast, spending on education — so vital to Quebec's future — will rise 9.35% to $22.3 billion. Image
3) But as far as health and social services is concerned, Tuesday's budget may be indulging in a bit of spin. The chart below states that Quebec will spend an extra $3.7 billion over the next five years to "support a humane and effective organization of health care." Image
Read 9 tweets
Jan 5
1) "The pandemic is far from over," one of the preeminent experts on #COVID19, Dr. Eric Topol, declared today, Jan. 4, 2024 — three years after the world first learned of a novel virus that was killing people in China. In this thread, I take stock of what's going on in Quebec.
2) "The pandemic is far from over, as evidenced by the rapid rise to global dominance of the JN.1 variant of SARS-CoV-2," Topol noted in a Los Angeles Times op-ed. In Quebec, nearly one in two genetic samples collected was from JN.1 as of two weeks ago. It's likely higher now. Image
3) "Clearly this virus variant, with its plethora of new mutations, has continued its evolution ... for infecting or reinfecting us," Topol added. Although the updated booster is considered 60% protective against hospitalization, only 17% of the Quebec population has taken it.
Read 10 tweets
Dec 17, 2023
1) BREAKING: By every major indicator, Quebec's health-care system is now arguably the worst it's ever been. Please click on my story below on Quebec wait lists for cancer and other surgery setting record highs — again. via @mtlgazettemontrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) Although Quebec has made it a priority to tackle wait lists for cancer surgery, more than 4,400 oncology patients are still waiting for their operations. More than 600 are waiting longer than the medically acceptable delay of 57 days, potentially putting their health at risk. Image
3) Even the wait list for so-called non-urgent surgery has now swelled to nearly 164,000 people. Almost 14,000 Quebecers today have been waiting more than a year for their surgery. At a year's wait, a non-urgent surgery starts to become urgent. Image
Read 14 tweets
Dec 6, 2023
1) BREAKING: Quebec, like other jurisdictions across North America, is now in the midst of a new #COVID19 resurgence — nearly 4 years into the #pandemic. In this thread, I will assess the implications of this latest wave of infections, likely driven by a new SARS-CoV-2 variant. Image
2) On Dec. 5, Quebec declared a total of 2,214 hospitalizations with and for #COVID. Please note this increase also reflects a change in the way Quebec's public health institute has been compiling such hospitalizations. But make no mistake: Quebec is still facing a resurgence. Image
3) The United States is also facing a #COVID hospitalizations resurgence, with 20,000 new admissions per week, according to preeminent expert @EricTopol. In the U.S., the JN.1 variant is becoming dominant, with wastewater levels surging with SARS-CoV-2. See Topol's tweet below. Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 13, 2023
1) BREAKING: Jewish-owned businesses in Montreal are being targeted and vandalized with antisemitic profanity. Please click below to read my report.
via @mtlgazettemontrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) "Last weekend, they put swastikas on the … menus downtown and they wrote FUCK THE JEWS," a Jewish business owner told me. I have also seen a list of Jewish businesses that is circulating, provoking not only boycotts but vandalism.
3) The Gazette has decided not to publish these disturbing images, as the Jewish business owners are fearful of reprisals.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 16, 2023
1) BREAKING: A month after Japan downgraded #COVID19 to the seasonal flu, the country is now beset with a 9th wave of infections. In this thread, I will explore the persistence of the #pandemic that everyone — especially politicians — wants to forget. Image
2) First, it's worth noting that the number of #COVID hospitalizations in the nation of 125 million rose to 4,330 from 4,122 a week before. The seven-day average for the number of patients in intensive care units was 79, according to the Japan Times.
3) It appears that XBB subtypes of the SARS-CoV-2 virus are driving the latest wave of infections in Japan. Meanwhile, China has recorded a more than five-fold surge in the number of people diagnosed with COVID in hospitals since April. China is also bracing for another wave. Image
Read 7 tweets

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