Jade Eloise Norris Profile picture
Sep 28, 2020 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Characteristics of people testing positive for COVID-19 in England, September 2020 - @ONS

- Increases in least deprived areas
- Mostly aged <35
- Higher rates from those who travelled abroad
- Asian/Asian British people more likely to have antibodies

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
In people aged under 35, positivity rates increased amongst those reporting having had 'socially-distanced direct contact' with 6 or more people aged 18-69
"In recent weeks, positivity rates have been higher amongst people who have travelled, although rates have increased in both groups. Credible intervals are wide in those who have travelled abroad"
"No evidence that patient-facing roles or working location are driving the greater increase in positivity rate in younger age groups in recent weeks"
Antibodies:

Individuals identifying as Asian/Asian British were 2.7 times (95% confidence interval: 1.6-4.4) more likely to have ever been infected than those identifying as White (26 April - 2 Sept)
People who work in patient-facing roles, as well as people who think they have had COVID-19, are more likely to test positive for antibodies.

But no differences for antibody positivity based on age, sex, household size, or working location.

Data: ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

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More from @jadenozzz

Apr 5, 2021
LSHTM modelling:

"We caution that this work is preliminary and makes pessimistic assumptions about the impact of Step 4...

We have made more pessimistic assumptions for the impact of vaccines on infection and transmission than other groups..
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
"... as well as for the impact of vaccines on severe outcomes.
Reevaluating these assumptions as more data on the real-world effectiveness of the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccine on infection and transmission come in will help to clarify the potential impact of Steps 1–4"
Imperial - a head-scratcher:

"Assuming optimistic vaccine efficacy, even if 2.7M vaccine doses/week.. to 1 August (2.0M thereafter), only 44.6% of the popn. will be protected against severe disease (due to vaccination/recovery from infection) by 21 June"
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Read 18 tweets
Dec 9, 2020
I've been meaning to tweet about this since it came out.

Government have taken a heavy handed, punitive approach to public health in this crisis, based primarily on leveraging huge fines for non-compliance.

I think this is wrong... (1/10)
Government introduced measure after measure, restriction after restriction, which it claimed would all definitely help, with no discussion about the potential harms.. (2/10)

(Excellent piece on the damage caused by failing to acknowledge uncertainty here)
bmj.com/content/371/bm…
Since March I have believed lockdowns will be more damaging to long-term public health than Covid.

Eventually, as the public are slowly exposed to such counterarguments, the government runs the serious risk of undermining public confidence... (3/10)

unglobalcompact.org/take-action/20…
Read 10 tweets
Nov 18, 2020
Danish mask study - thread:

Main finding is a non-significant difference in infection rates between groups (those advised to follow social distancing only, vs those advised to follow social distancing AND wear a surgical mask when outside the home)

acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M2…
Those in the mask group were given 50 surgical-grade masks for a 1 month period, plus instructions on their proper use.

Masks: 3 layer, disposable, surgical face masks (TYPE II EN 14683 [Abena]; filtration rate, 98%).

Mask use is uncommon in the community in Denmark (<5%).
Public health measures at the time incd quarantining infected people, social distancing, limiting social interactions, hand hygiene, limiting visitors in hospitals & nursing homes. Shops & public transport remained open. Cafés and restaurants were closed during part of the study.
Read 13 tweets
Oct 11, 2020
Currently, both 'sides' attempt to delegitimise the other's viewpoints by describing them in the extreme;

'Lockdowns until vaccine' vs. 'let it rip'

I won't get into those issues, but wanted to show that this has never been clear cut.

How has SAGE guidance evolved over time?👇
March 4: “School closures will be highly disruptive and likely to present an unequal burden to different sections of society... [SAGE] have divergent opinions on the impact of not applying widescale social isolation at the same time as recommending isolation to at-risk groups...
.. One view is that explaining that members of the community are building some immunity will make this acceptable. Another view is that recommending isolation to only one section of society risks causing discontent."

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Read 16 tweets
Sep 28, 2020
Parliament debate NOW on COVID-19

parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/f9…
Point of order raised by the opposition, that Hancock said a week ago that there was a trial about Vitamin D in coronavirus and there was no effect. He was in fact talking about a review of secondary evidence, and indeed it looks like there is an effect
Hancock now talking about coronavirus restrictions, balance, etc. Interrupted -

MP - asks that parliament by involved in any future lockdown decisions
Read 76 tweets
Sep 25, 2020
I am just finishing working on a project about first year students' mental health during the transition to university.

The news from Scotland and across the UK about the isolation of, and threats to students is deeply concerning...

bath.ac.uk/projects/the-p…
Semester 1 is incredibly difficult for many students for a variety of reasons, but most concerning is that the risk of suicide in those with psychological difficulties are, even in normal times, heightened during this period...
.@MattHancock, @NicolaSturgeon, you must reconsider your threats to stop students accessing their family support this semester, and at Christmas.

This should be everyone's red line.
Read 4 tweets

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