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Sep 28, 2020 76 tweets 13 min read Read on X
Parliament debate NOW on COVID-19

parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/f9…
Point of order raised by the opposition, that Hancock said a week ago that there was a trial about Vitamin D in coronavirus and there was no effect. He was in fact talking about a review of secondary evidence, and indeed it looks like there is an effect
Hancock now talking about coronavirus restrictions, balance, etc. Interrupted -

MP - asks that parliament by involved in any future lockdown decisions
Hancock: the aim is to enable parliament to scrutinise, debate, etc. (But he does not say this would be before) says 'in advance where possible'

Looks like he isn't budging
Opposition MP also asks a question regarding creating a select committee, mostly consisting of opposition members, to scrutinise.

(I did a LOL)
Hancock now getting heckled from the back benches.
Another Con MP: it's not just about scrutiny, its about the laws we're making. One example came in at midnight last night, including many things that were not set out last week. We need to scrutinise the details before it comes into force.
Another backbench MP - oh it's @SteveBakerHW - says surely it was possible in 8 days to have the debate that (Hancock) is calling for.
Hancock says he's happy to talk with him and others 'on how to take this happen'. Then goes on to defend regulations that were published last night.
MP Chris Grayling: before we embark on measures that affect everyone, this house must be able to scrutinise and challenge.
(Hancock just said he appreciates the recognition that 'we sometimes have to act fast', but literally not one questioner has said that)
(Hancock now doing boring showing off)
Opposition MP: John Spellar - can he explain why he is so against parliament making the decision?

(this guy is angry)
@johnredwood: Q about infection control between hospitals and care homes

Hancock: we've improved procedures, this has an impact on strategy. HE'S NOW SAYING GROWTH IS EXPONENTIAL.

(AAAAAAAAAARGHHHHHHHHHH)
Hancock says we have to control the infection 'until a vaccine arrives'

(He is literally clueless and it is terrifying)
(My thoughts - he's not the Health Secretary. He's the Corona Secretary)
Tory MP: we need to know interventions are evidence based and will be effective.

Hancock: 'I would caution against the idea that there hasn't been parliamentary scrutiny"

(?!?!?!)
Opposition MP: is elimination a realistic strategy?

Hancock: basically no, always a resurgence.

"Two realistic options we have are supressing until a vaccine comes, or letting it rip"
Lots of testing testing blah blah blah
NEW RESTRICTIONS - North East:

Indoor mixing between households in an setting banned
He's now congratulating himself on PPE, y'know, after the lack of PPE killed a bunch of people in March & April.

On vaccine: prioritising access and ensuring ready for rollout as soon as possible. "Brings hope to us all"
Now Johnathan Ashworth, discussing supporting bereaved families, disproportionate clustering of risk for the most deprived, long COVID, etc.
. @SteveBakerHW - "I wonder which member of this House has said the virus should be allowed to let rip because I know I haven't, and I'm not aware of any other Member of Parliament thinking it should be let rip"
Ashworth points out that he's basically echoing what Hancock said (which is absolutely true).

(This needs nipping in the bud right now)
Labour backbencher: When is a vaccine likely? And even when we have one, is it likely to be 100% effective?
(It was John Spellar)
(Ashworth might as well be reading from Hancock's notes.

There is no opposition)
Ashworth:

"People need reassurance that there will be an end in sight"

But then suggests imposing alternative restrictions, not less.
Asks for review on the evidence for the 10pm curfew and report back to parliament, and asks Hancock to provide options for further containment measures in future.
Ashworth also asks about moonshot testing, including contracts with firms who are failing currently on test and trace right now.
Also asks for an update on what's happening with uni halls, and also highlights how long people are waiting for test results.
.@SimonClarkeMP - also saying we'll be living with this until a vaccine is available, we should keep economy or society as open as possible
"Return to national lockdown would be wrong. The toll would be stark and serious" Talks of undiagnosed cancer, mental health, unemployment..
..opportunities lost by young people, loneliness felt, we must do our utmost to live without fear..

Whilst respecting everything govt is doing, but on local lockdowns - are we in effect seeing a national or semi national lockdown, imposed by default? What is our exit strategy?
.@DesmondSwayne - "I'm now wondering if the PM hasn't been abducted by Dr Strangeglove, and reprogrammed by the sage, over to the dark side..

The purpose of politicians is to impose a measure of proportion, on science, and not to be enthralled to it...
"now I will make myself very unpopular, but I believe that the appearance of the chiefs last week should have been a sacking offence. When they resented that graph, oh with the caveat that it wasn't a prediction, but nevertheless it was clear that they presented it as...
..a plausible scenario, with its 50,000 cases per day by mid October based on the doubling of infections by the week - not once, not on one day since March, have there been infections on that day that were double that of the day [before].. what was their purpose...
.. in presenting such a graph? It was the purpose of the fat boy in pickwick papers, I wants to make yer flesh creep, it was project fear, it was an attempt to terrify the British people as if they haven't been terrified enough. Now I've been banging on about this since..
.. March, and every criticism I've mad I've been told that the government was relying on the best possible science. So I am delighted, by the letter one week ago today, the nuanced criticism of professors Heneghan, Gupta, and Sikora, and I believe that is now the...
... government that has to answer that criticism. I'm glad that the consensus in the scientific community is broken, and the critics are speaking out. I don't underestimate for one moment the horrible nature of this disease and its post viral syndrome. But in terms of...
.. the UK's killers, it is 24th in the league, accounting for only 1.4 of us, and as a consequence, I believe that the government's policy has been disproportionate By decree, it has interfered in our private lives, and our family lives, telling whom we may meet, when we may...
... meet them, and what we must wear when we meet them. We have the cruelty, of elderly people in care homes, disoriented, being unable to see the faces of their loved ones and to receive a hug. We have the tsunami of deaths that we may experience shortly as a consequence of...
..undiagnosed cancers and heart disease, and the discontinuation of clinical trials -" [he gives way to a question about Sweden]

@DesmondSwayne "I deduce that was much more proportionate, of course all sorts of criticisms are levied against the Swedish government...
.. that on examination of the data and comparing like for like actually are without foundation, I certainly hold up the Swedish model as an alternative. We have seen the eyewatering costs that we must now all face for a generation having closed down our economy for...
.. all those months as a consequence of the government's policy. The crushing of enterprises, the destruction of livelihoods, the unemployment that we're going to have to face now amongst young people, all as a consequence of an over-react- and I understand now..
.. there's some question as to whether students are to be allowed to return from university at Christmas. Can I say most gently to my Hon friend on the front bench, that the last administration that sought to restrain celebrations of Christmas was during the commonwealth...
..I conclude by saying that the policy of the government has been disproportionate in response to this threat. There may be a virus one day that threatens our very way of life, but this isn't it, even if we are behaving as if it were." - @DesmondSwayne
*presented
*had
Now for @lucyallan (I'm too burnt out for verbatim, so here's a summary)
She says there is suffering and sacrifice not just due to the economy, and that

"lockdowns are not a solution, it is not living with COVID in fact in many ways it's hiding from COVID, simply hoping it goes away"
Lucy Allan continues: we need a long term strategy. No need to impose indiscriminate, arbitrary restrictions on everyone. Unlike the scientists, government has to consider wider issues, not just the science. Social and moral consequences, value of freedom and democracy...
... and has to decide whether a COVID death matters more than another death. "I say not"

Talks about the charts presented by @CMO_England and @uksciencechief - says they undermined public confidence.
... Now is time to involve parliament, MPs know their constituents, allow that expertise in.
Now for John Spellar, Labour: claims Hancock positioned the options as between his way or mass spread of the virus. He's basing everything on waiting for the vaccine, which may take years and may not be very effective...
... for businesses, and their employees, [Hancock] effectively tells them they have a very uncertain future. Restrictions must be balanced and evidence based.
@johnredwood - defends govt on measures taken, but says where are the trials promised on other antivirals, steroids, clot busting drugs, etc? Where are the results? The more better treatments, the better it's going to be for keeping people safe
Says there needs to be a strategy for 'when we don't have a magic vaccine'.
And the nation needs some hope, and certainly not the threat of a ruined Christmas, where students can't come home.
(Guys I'm flagging, I think this debate goes on all bloody night?! Supposed to be in the gym in an hour!)
Barbara Keeley MP raises the disgusting treatment of autistic people and people with learning disabilities at Yewtrees. See: bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan…
She also raises the question to lift restrictions on visitors to care homes, and queries the 10pm curfew.

@JohnCampaign
Greg Clarke: isolation of people with COVID, hygiene, and distancing work to control the spread. But that must be it. We must combine the restrictions with the prospect of relief from them. By the spring we must embark on a clearly different course...
.. We can't forever live in circumstances in which the way we live our lives can be upended without notice. By the spring, many of the unknowns will switch to being know. We will know whether a vaccine has been discovered and validated in trials to allow it to be deployed...
.. we will know whether research into treatments.. has established whether any of them can give us confidence that contracting COVID is manageable, we should have.. increased testing capacity. He says we will know by then 'if COVID is becoming less dangerous'
(He's said 'in the spring' about 15 times. Don't know where all these MPs are getting their crystal ball)
Christopher Chope MP - congratulates @DesmondSwayne on his speech, and essentially agrees with his points, saying he supports the Brady amendment, and he's still not persuaded he will support the Coronavirus Act. Govt is guilty of covert mission creep
. I've now got to @SteveBakerHW: track and trace app "apotheosis of my worst fears" and yet, over the weekend I studied what the Govt has done, they've moved to Google and Apple, released the source code, and against my instinct, I am going to installed the contact tracing app...
.. @drraghibali is a very reasonable man, he has helped keep my anchored in the truth, that this a very dangerous disease for people who are older, and who have pre existing conditions, and we have just got to deal with it.. but...
...(says he wishes Hancock was there because he framed the issue in a false dichotomy), I do think we need to have another look at the scientific advice, there are profs out there telling us that this is an optimisation problem, that we need to maximise lives saved, minimise harm
... there is I think going to be a third way which enables us to minimise harm, I think the Dept's own research has shown that the cost of lockdown.. was greater than the cost of the disease thus far... we've got to look carefully at the science...
.. @SteveBakerHW continues: he wrote brief for the PM on 'expert failure'. We need to change the structure within which expert advice is provided, and deal with the problem of this House voting on restrictions of the people's liberty before it is taken away...
... we're into a different phase of the disease, we've just had a very constructive meeting with the secretary etc.
MP Mark Harper: govt should have stuck to guidance, not law. Notes large differences in reported doubling rate of cases reported by Whitty, Vallence, and PM
I have to stop soon, but you can keep watching the debate here:

parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/f9…

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More from @jadenozzz

Apr 5, 2021
LSHTM modelling:

"We caution that this work is preliminary and makes pessimistic assumptions about the impact of Step 4...

We have made more pessimistic assumptions for the impact of vaccines on infection and transmission than other groups..
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
"... as well as for the impact of vaccines on severe outcomes.
Reevaluating these assumptions as more data on the real-world effectiveness of the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccine on infection and transmission come in will help to clarify the potential impact of Steps 1–4"
Imperial - a head-scratcher:

"Assuming optimistic vaccine efficacy, even if 2.7M vaccine doses/week.. to 1 August (2.0M thereafter), only 44.6% of the popn. will be protected against severe disease (due to vaccination/recovery from infection) by 21 June"
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Read 18 tweets
Dec 9, 2020
I've been meaning to tweet about this since it came out.

Government have taken a heavy handed, punitive approach to public health in this crisis, based primarily on leveraging huge fines for non-compliance.

I think this is wrong... (1/10)
Government introduced measure after measure, restriction after restriction, which it claimed would all definitely help, with no discussion about the potential harms.. (2/10)

(Excellent piece on the damage caused by failing to acknowledge uncertainty here)
bmj.com/content/371/bm…
Since March I have believed lockdowns will be more damaging to long-term public health than Covid.

Eventually, as the public are slowly exposed to such counterarguments, the government runs the serious risk of undermining public confidence... (3/10)

unglobalcompact.org/take-action/20…
Read 10 tweets
Nov 18, 2020
Danish mask study - thread:

Main finding is a non-significant difference in infection rates between groups (those advised to follow social distancing only, vs those advised to follow social distancing AND wear a surgical mask when outside the home)

acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M2…
Those in the mask group were given 50 surgical-grade masks for a 1 month period, plus instructions on their proper use.

Masks: 3 layer, disposable, surgical face masks (TYPE II EN 14683 [Abena]; filtration rate, 98%).

Mask use is uncommon in the community in Denmark (<5%).
Public health measures at the time incd quarantining infected people, social distancing, limiting social interactions, hand hygiene, limiting visitors in hospitals & nursing homes. Shops & public transport remained open. Cafés and restaurants were closed during part of the study.
Read 13 tweets
Oct 11, 2020
Currently, both 'sides' attempt to delegitimise the other's viewpoints by describing them in the extreme;

'Lockdowns until vaccine' vs. 'let it rip'

I won't get into those issues, but wanted to show that this has never been clear cut.

How has SAGE guidance evolved over time?👇
March 4: “School closures will be highly disruptive and likely to present an unequal burden to different sections of society... [SAGE] have divergent opinions on the impact of not applying widescale social isolation at the same time as recommending isolation to at-risk groups...
.. One view is that explaining that members of the community are building some immunity will make this acceptable. Another view is that recommending isolation to only one section of society risks causing discontent."

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Read 16 tweets
Sep 28, 2020
Characteristics of people testing positive for COVID-19 in England, September 2020 - @ONS

- Increases in least deprived areas
- Mostly aged <35
- Higher rates from those who travelled abroad
- Asian/Asian British people more likely to have antibodies

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
In people aged under 35, positivity rates increased amongst those reporting having had 'socially-distanced direct contact' with 6 or more people aged 18-69
"In recent weeks, positivity rates have been higher amongst people who have travelled, although rates have increased in both groups. Credible intervals are wide in those who have travelled abroad"
Read 6 tweets
Sep 25, 2020
I am just finishing working on a project about first year students' mental health during the transition to university.

The news from Scotland and across the UK about the isolation of, and threats to students is deeply concerning...

bath.ac.uk/projects/the-p…
Semester 1 is incredibly difficult for many students for a variety of reasons, but most concerning is that the risk of suicide in those with psychological difficulties are, even in normal times, heightened during this period...
.@MattHancock, @NicolaSturgeon, you must reconsider your threats to stop students accessing their family support this semester, and at Christmas.

This should be everyone's red line.
Read 4 tweets

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