Thread by @GordunGekko

@jitendrajain @Tweet2vijayp @yogeshnanda1 @DedhiaJenil @ManekAgicha Yes. It was a very broad discussion. If indeed some idea is finalised, will execute that and share it on the channel.

@jitendrajain @Tweet2vijayp @yogeshnanda1 @DedhiaJenil @ManekAgicha Ok, well not really inputs...but some data-points that we discussed...now use this information, the way you like...period analysed…Nov 2010 till today…

a) If you were to consider any 5-day period, the “average” move given by BN is 3.96% (meaning from start of the period to the

@jitendrajain @Tweet2vijayp @yogeshnanda1 @DedhiaJenil @ManekAgicha high, or start to low) … meaning, typically, in any trading week (Friday to Thursday), you can expect the BN to move 3.96% either side (up or down on a “high/ low basis”)

b) As I said above, 3.96% is the “average”…minimum ever recorded is 0.55% and maximum ever recorded is

@jitendrajain @Tweet2vijayp @yogeshnanda1 @DedhiaJenil @ManekAgicha 27.26%

c) If you were to consider any 5-day period, the “average” move given by BN from start of week to close of the week is 2.62% … meaning, typically, in any trading week (Friday to Thursday), you can expect the BN to move 2.6% either side (up or down on a “closing basis”)

@jitendrajain @Tweet2vijayp @yogeshnanda1 @DedhiaJenil @ManekAgicha d) As I said above, 2.62% is the “average”…minimum ever recorded is 0.00% and maximum ever recorded is 26.70%

e) If you were to consider any 1-day period, the “average” move given by BN is 1.09% … meaning, typically, on any day of the week, you can expect the BN to move 1.09%

@jitendrajain @Tweet2vijayp @yogeshnanda1 @DedhiaJenil @ManekAgicha either side (up or down on a “closing basis”)

f) As I said above, 1.09% is the “average”…minimum ever recorded is 0.00% and maximum ever recorded is 16.73%

@jitendrajain @Tweet2vijayp @yogeshnanda1 @DedhiaJenil @ManekAgicha Now that I gave out so much statistics, what's the use if we don't apply it...right?

So, let's see how we are doing this week. See screenshot below. This is my personal excel in which I plot market data in a format I want.

Column HB shows the range of BN (on high/low basis) on

@jitendrajain @Tweet2vijayp @yogeshnanda1 @DedhiaJenil @ManekAgicha a rolling 5 day period basis. Here's how it is calculated.

@jitendrajain @Tweet2vijayp @yogeshnanda1 @DedhiaJenil @ManekAgicha The top portion of column HB (the cells above the horizontal gray band) show the same in "Percentile" terms. The lowest number 1.03 is "2 percentile", the one above that 1.24 is "5 percentile" and so on... 10, 25, 50, 75, 90, 95, 98 percentile. See formula below:

@jitendrajain @Tweet2vijayp @yogeshnanda1 @DedhiaJenil @ManekAgicha What is this percentile? Basically, as an example, when I say, 50 percentile is 3.22, it means that out of all "5-day periods" in the entire date-range (Nov 2010 to date), in 50% of the cases, the 5-day range has been lower than 3.22...and so forth...

@jitendrajain @Tweet2vijayp @yogeshnanda1 @DedhiaJenil @ManekAgicha Using this data, I have plotted the expected range of BN over this week in columns "GZ" and "HA"... GZ represents the corresponding numbers on the upside and HA on the downside...all these are calculated taking Thursday close of 22,246 as the base (bcoz idea is to measure range

@jitendrajain @Tweet2vijayp @yogeshnanda1 @DedhiaJenil @ManekAgicha over the current expiry week...starting Friday morning and ending on coming Thursday evening...but considering the previous week close as the starting point...

The range that BN has already covered is highlighted in red font (in column GZ)...as you see, it has already covered

@jitendrajain @Tweet2vijayp @yogeshnanda1 @DedhiaJenil @ManekAgicha the range upto "25 percentile" on the upside (which is 22,728... given that high made today was 22,894)...which means that for BN to reach the "50 percentile" (which is the median across the entire period), it has to touch 22,962...

Similarly, let's now look at "average" instead

@jitendrajain @Tweet2vijayp @yogeshnanda1 @DedhiaJenil @ManekAgicha of "percentile"...now, look at the two cells highlighted in green and orange in column HD...the average of entire column HB is 3.97%...so applying that 3.97% on Thursday close of 22,246, we get possible upper range of 23,129 on upside and 21,363 on downside.

So, conclusion,

@jitendrajain @Tweet2vijayp @yogeshnanda1 @DedhiaJenil @ManekAgicha going by "average" of the historic period, one can expect BN to touch 23,129 this expiry (given that chances of it touching the lower range of 21,363 are now slim)...

Now, hoping that you have understood whatever gyan I have given above🙂, corresponding numbers for nifty are:

@jitendrajain @Tweet2vijayp @yogeshnanda1 @DedhiaJenil @ManekAgicha Median (22,962) touched for Bank Nifty...
Average (11,734) touched for Nifty

@jitendrajain @Tweet2vijayp @yogeshnanda1 @DedhiaJenil @ManekAgicha Final position at the end of expiry week...

Nifty ==> achieved both "average" (11734) and 75 percentile (11801)

BN ==> achieved both "average" (23130) and 75 percentile (23326)