I'll try write a few words of helpful advice, because all I am seeing is unhelpful anger:
1. Focus on what you control.

You can't decide if pubs are open or closed.

What you can decide is not to go for a pint. It's in your power to go for a walk with friends or have a glass of wine on the couch instead.
2. Ignore people who imply we are doing things uniquely wrong in Ireland.

Our 14-day incidence is the 16th highest in Europe, the virus is well in command on the continent.

We are doing far better than average in Europe currently on both deaths and cases.
3. Don't participate in blame games.

The temptation to blame someone is common in Europe.

The Balkan countries blame Roma community, Catalonians blame Madrid people, Unionists blame nationalists, some Swede's blame immigrants, Belgians blame house parties.

None of that helps.
4. Government and Opposition are Irish people on one team.

They sometimes might not act like adults and you don't have to start loving parties you hate but none of them want people to die.

The Us vs Them is Irish people vs Virus, not Irish people vs Irish people, remember that.
5. Ignore bad science and whataboutery merchants.

-Masks work. They mitigate risk, they do not eliminate risk.
-Hand washing + Masks + 2 meters mitigates risk farther.
-There is no zero risk environment.

The fewer people you interact with, the lower your risk level.
6. I know there are some issues on this front but get the Flu vaccine.

The likelihood is Influenza activity will be low to non-existent in the Northern Hemisphere winter but that is not a certainty.

You reduce your overall risk by getting it.
7. There is no stigma or blame.

If you did slip up and threw the mother of all house parties, come forward for a test if you are a close contact.

Nobody who matters will judge you for it.

If you have symptoms don't knowingly go near people, it's about them, not you.
8. Countries who will cope best with this Winter Wave will be the ones who succeed in sticking together and create safe environments for people to come forward.

Blame creates stigma, stigma creates fear and shame.

People ducking contact tracers does not make any of us safer.
Now isn't the time for Mé Féiner's, it's the time for community spirit.

Uplift people, be there for them; regularly check in on your neighbours, families, friends even if it's from 3 meters away or at the end of a phone.

We can get through this winter best together.

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More from @Care2much18

16 Oct
This has taken me an inordinate amount of time.

I have broken down Ireland's 14-day incidence, by age, across 2 time periods.

The results show children under 15-years-old have the lowest 14-day incidence in Ireland and that's not due to lack of testing, as some thought.
August 1st-August 14th:

14-day Cases per 100,000 by age:

Ireland: 18.4

25-34: 36.4
15-24: 26.4
35-44: 20.7
45-54: 19.5
55-64: 11.9
0-4: 11.5
5-14: 8.3
65-74: 6.5
75-84: 5.7
85+: 4.5

25-34, 15-24 had by far the highest 14-day incidence, while older people by far the lowest.
October 1st to 14th:

14-day Cases per 100,000 by age:

Ireland: 190.6

15-24: 369.5
25-34: 240.7
85+: 192.5
45-54: 158.1
55-64: 148.8
35-44: 142.6
75-84: 96.2
65-74: 88.6
5-14: 75.4
0-4: 66.6

25-34 and 15-24 still highest, but young children now lowest incidence.
Read 12 tweets
16 Oct
I laid out the case for Level 5 on Oct 4th as NPHET recommended. If only we had done it...

We'd be in the precise same place today.

It takes 3 weeks to see meaningful impact of measures.

People need to come together in unity and stop looking for blame. /1
The 14-day incidence when NPHET made their preemptive recommendation was 107.3 per 100,000.

We would have been the only country in Europe, bar Greece, to even consider lockdowns at that rate.

Every other country waited until 300.0, 400.0 or 500.0 per 100,000 for tough measures.
Northern Ireland waited until they had the very worst outbreak in the world near 600.0.

NPHET's idea, I presume, was to try act preemptively so we don't get there.

It was a good idea, as I said at the time, but it would have been dramatically out-of-step with Europe to do it.
Read 8 tweets
16 Oct
14-day cases per 100,000:

NI: 655.4
ROI: 206.7

Derry City & Strabane: 1,752.8
Belfast: 907.6
Mid-Ulster: 795.2
Newry & Mourne: 676.5
Cavan 639.3
Lisburn & Castelreagh: 485.6
Antrim & Newtonabbey: 457.7
Fermanagh & Omagh: 450.3
Causeway & Glens: 412.5
Donegal: 367.5
Donegal is about to drop out of that top 10 on the island to be replace by Armagh.

The only relatively good news for Northern Ireland:

-Newry & Mourne continues to improve
-They are no longer the worst outbreak in the world, now into 2nd as Czech's regained the #1 position.
Bad news:

-The positivity rate is astronomical.

-The Western Trust where Derry is located now has more admitted to hospital than their April peak.

-26 in ICU and overall hospital admissions in Northern Ireland will overtake the April peak in around 2 weeks time.
Read 6 tweets
15 Oct
Irish media would want to be having a long look in the mirror, giving platforms to this type of "it's only old people dying" paid advertisement.

Not least because some of these "facts" are not even facts and the ones that are facts, are irrelevant nonsense.

An enduring shame.
1. "Fact - Median age of death from Covid19 is 83 years. This means the median age of people who died from Covid19 have lived longer than the 'normal life expectancy' in Ireland."

This one is partially false and completely irrelevant.
"Normal life expectancy" is a non sequitur because an 81-year-old with multiple underlying conditions has a life expectancy of 88-years-old, not 81.5 years old.

You can't define "normal life expectancy" for old people from birth because they were born in 1939 not 2020.
Read 13 tweets
14 Oct
The last 48 hours has seen the biggest 2-day increase in ICU admissions in Europe since the Spring wave, resulting in a +752 net increase in ICU totals.


France: +194
Italy: +95
Germany: +73
UK: +65
Poland: +63
Czech Republic: +49
Netherlands: +43
Belgium: +38
In September, there was a net +2,829 increase in the amount of people in ICU in Europe.

The last fortnight has seen a net +2,732 increase.

Only 2 weeks into October and already it's twice as bad as September, which wasn't even a very good month to begin with.
When you look at deaths in Europe (excluding Russia) you see a picture of 11,000 deaths in September.

The first fortnight of October, when todays updates come in, will be about 10,000.

A death toll of 22,000 - 26,000 for the month seems a realistic outcome.
Read 5 tweets
14 Oct
This level of infection can't continue forever in Northern Ireland and the good news is, it won't.

But their recent numbers just keep powering to new records and they've now breached a 600.0 14-day incidence, which depending on Czech update tomorrow, is the worst in the world.
14-day cases per 100,000:

NI: 605.7
ROI: 173.3

Derry City & Strabane: 1,664.6
Belfast: 826.1
Mid-Ulster: 707.0
Newry & Mourne: 684.9
Lisburn & Castelreagh: 437.4
Antrim & Newtonabbey: 430.4
Cavan: 412.2
Fermanagh & Omagh: 404.0
Causeway & Glens: 359.8
Donegal: 354.9
When you actually think what that number means in Derry, it's actually mind boggling.

It would be statistically improbable to just go about your week without encountering someone who has the virus in Derry, as the level of infection is at near-pervasive levels.
Read 9 tweets

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