This has taken me an inordinate amount of time.

I have broken down Ireland's 14-day incidence, by age, across 2 time periods.

The results show children under 15-years-old have the lowest 14-day incidence in Ireland and that's not due to lack of testing, as some thought.
August 1st-August 14th:

14-day Cases per 100,000 by age:

Ireland: 18.4

25-34: 36.4
15-24: 26.4
35-44: 20.7
45-54: 19.5
55-64: 11.9
0-4: 11.5
5-14: 8.3
65-74: 6.5
75-84: 5.7
85+: 4.5

25-34, 15-24 had by far the highest 14-day incidence, while older people by far the lowest.
October 1st to 14th:

14-day Cases per 100,000 by age:

Ireland: 190.6

15-24: 369.5
25-34: 240.7
85+: 192.5
45-54: 158.1
55-64: 148.8
35-44: 142.6
75-84: 96.2
65-74: 88.6
5-14: 75.4
0-4: 66.6

25-34 and 15-24 still highest, but young children now lowest incidence.
All age groups are below the current national incidence except for 85+, 15-24 and 25-34.

What has changed most between the 2 periods is infection increased enormously for older people, while children had the lowest proportional increases.
Relative increase from August 14th to October 14th:

85+: 44 times increase
75-84: 17 times increase
65-74: 14 times increase
15-24: 14 times increase
55-64: 13 times increase
5-14: 9 times increase
0-4: 6 times increase

Rising tide lifted all boats but children the least.
We know how many school-age children were tested thanks to excellent journalism from Sorcha Ní Mhonacháin for RTE Nuacht.

Aug 30th - Sep 27th:

Total tests: 314,725
Tests 5-12 years old: 31,138 (10%)
Tests 13-19 years old: 27,514 (9%)

19% of all tests in that period were 5-19.
5-19 represent ~19% of the population and 19% of tests.

As healthcare staff and nursing homes are mass-tested on a regular basis, 25-54 and 85+ should have accounted for a disproportionate amounts of tests.

So that 19% represents more-than-thorough testing in children.
I used a 2019 population pyramid (4,882,498) to calculate 14-day incidence by age.

The other options were the 2016 Census or 2020 CSO quicktables but the former undercounts the population too much and the latter didn't have enough age bands.

It was the best available pyramid.
The case numbers for the calculations are:

Cases, August 1-14:

0 - 4: 37
5 - 14: 59
15 - 24: 155
25 - 34: 217
35 - 44: 162
45 - 54: 129
55 - 64: 63
65 - 74: 27
75 - 84: 12
85+: 3
Cases, October 1-14:

0 - 4: 214
5 - 14: 537
15 - 24: 2169
25 - 34: 1435
35 - 44: 1112
45 - 54: 1047
55 - 64: 786
65 - 74: 367
75 - 84: 202
85+: 129
Sorcha's great work is below.

The positivity rates in schoolkids 5-12 was a lot lower than that of adults.

That was supplemented by information yesterday that the positivity rate of schools mass tested is 1.9% (more than 3 times lower than adults).

rte.ie/news/2020/1002…
Children under 15, thankfully, have the lowest incidence & positivity rates in Ireland.

That's a lot down to phenomenal parents and teachers, who should be proud of their efforts.

Adults are driving spread and it is adults who can change that.

Hopefully some of that helps.

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More from @Care2much18

16 Oct
I'll try write a few words of helpful advice, because all I am seeing is unhelpful anger:
1. Focus on what you control.

You can't decide if pubs are open or closed.

What you can decide is not to go for a pint. It's in your power to go for a walk with friends or have a glass of wine on the couch instead.
2. Ignore people who imply we are doing things uniquely wrong in Ireland.

Our 14-day incidence is the 16th highest in Europe, the virus is well in command on the continent.

We are doing far better than average in Europe currently on both deaths and cases.
Read 10 tweets
16 Oct
I laid out the case for Level 5 on Oct 4th as NPHET recommended. If only we had done it...

We'd be in the precise same place today.

It takes 3 weeks to see meaningful impact of measures.

People need to come together in unity and stop looking for blame. /1
The 14-day incidence when NPHET made their preemptive recommendation was 107.3 per 100,000.

We would have been the only country in Europe, bar Greece, to even consider lockdowns at that rate.

Every other country waited until 300.0, 400.0 or 500.0 per 100,000 for tough measures.
Northern Ireland waited until they had the very worst outbreak in the world near 600.0.

NPHET's idea, I presume, was to try act preemptively so we don't get there.

It was a good idea, as I said at the time, but it would have been dramatically out-of-step with Europe to do it.
Read 8 tweets
16 Oct
14-day cases per 100,000:

NI: 655.4
ROI: 206.7

Derry City & Strabane: 1,752.8
Belfast: 907.6
Mid-Ulster: 795.2
Newry & Mourne: 676.5
Cavan 639.3
Lisburn & Castelreagh: 485.6
Antrim & Newtonabbey: 457.7
Fermanagh & Omagh: 450.3
Causeway & Glens: 412.5
Donegal: 367.5
Donegal is about to drop out of that top 10 on the island to be replace by Armagh.

The only relatively good news for Northern Ireland:

-Newry & Mourne continues to improve
-They are no longer the worst outbreak in the world, now into 2nd as Czech's regained the #1 position.
Bad news:

-The positivity rate is astronomical.

-The Western Trust where Derry is located now has more admitted to hospital than their April peak.

-26 in ICU and overall hospital admissions in Northern Ireland will overtake the April peak in around 2 weeks time.
Read 6 tweets
15 Oct
Irish media would want to be having a long look in the mirror, giving platforms to this type of "it's only old people dying" paid advertisement.

Not least because some of these "facts" are not even facts and the ones that are facts, are irrelevant nonsense.

An enduring shame.
1. "Fact - Median age of death from Covid19 is 83 years. This means the median age of people who died from Covid19 have lived longer than the 'normal life expectancy' in Ireland."

This one is partially false and completely irrelevant.
"Normal life expectancy" is a non sequitur because an 81-year-old with multiple underlying conditions has a life expectancy of 88-years-old, not 81.5 years old.

You can't define "normal life expectancy" for old people from birth because they were born in 1939 not 2020.
Read 13 tweets
14 Oct
The last 48 hours has seen the biggest 2-day increase in ICU admissions in Europe since the Spring wave, resulting in a +752 net increase in ICU totals.

Selected:

France: +194
Italy: +95
Germany: +73
UK: +65
Poland: +63
Czech Republic: +49
Netherlands: +43
Belgium: +38
In September, there was a net +2,829 increase in the amount of people in ICU in Europe.

The last fortnight has seen a net +2,732 increase.

Only 2 weeks into October and already it's twice as bad as September, which wasn't even a very good month to begin with.
When you look at deaths in Europe (excluding Russia) you see a picture of 11,000 deaths in September.

The first fortnight of October, when todays updates come in, will be about 10,000.

A death toll of 22,000 - 26,000 for the month seems a realistic outcome.
Read 5 tweets
14 Oct
This level of infection can't continue forever in Northern Ireland and the good news is, it won't.

But their recent numbers just keep powering to new records and they've now breached a 600.0 14-day incidence, which depending on Czech update tomorrow, is the worst in the world.
14-day cases per 100,000:

NI: 605.7
ROI: 173.3

Derry City & Strabane: 1,664.6
Belfast: 826.1
Mid-Ulster: 707.0
Newry & Mourne: 684.9
Lisburn & Castelreagh: 437.4
Antrim & Newtonabbey: 430.4
Cavan: 412.2
Fermanagh & Omagh: 404.0
Causeway & Glens: 359.8
Donegal: 354.9
When you actually think what that number means in Derry, it's actually mind boggling.

It would be statistically improbable to just go about your week without encountering someone who has the virus in Derry, as the level of infection is at near-pervasive levels.
Read 9 tweets

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