I actually think the fact that Trump will be muted will help him.
Trump does not look comfortable. It looks like he's doing the pee-pee dance.
Trump continues to downplay covid.
Not a good start.
Biden with a strong answer on covid.
Trump just called the vaccine distribution "easy."
That's not my understanding. Most vaccines are looking like a double-dose, meaning people will have to come back for a second dose. That's extremely difficult and complex.
That was strong from Biden, turning Trump's "learning to live with it" into "learning die with it."
Lol...
Trump: I take full responsibility, but it's not my fault.
Biden: I'm going to shut down the virus, not the country.
That's a strong line.
"It just went away."
Again, Trump downplays the threat.
"tremendous abuse."
(Abuse is not tremendous.)
Biden: We need to be able to walk and chew gum.
Then starts naming strategies for mitigation that will allow safe reopening.
Biden: I don't look at red states and blue states, we're the United States. But if you look at where cases are the worst right now, it's red states. But we're all the United States.
It's clear, Trump has no plan.
He's talking about open, open, open...but not a word about safety.
Trump tried to pivot to Biden as a Wall Street guy, talks about all the money he's raised. (And then hems and haws about how much money he could raise if he wanted to - which is funny bc his campaign is running out of money.)
Biden comes back with: $43 average donation.
Worth noting: Economists think we'd be better off now if the "lockdowns" in the Spring were more aggressive.
Biden: Release your tax returns, or quit talking about corruption.
That's a good line.
Wait, Trump is saying he "prepaid" taxes. Wtf?
Calls the $750 a "filing fee." That's...not accurate.
Trump: I don't make money from Russia, you do. I don't make money from China, you do.
(I know you are but what am I?)
Malarkey! Drink!
Trump is starting to get a little unhinged.
And Trump is raising his voice, talking over the moderator now.
Trump is asked what he would do for people who lose their healthcare if he gets his way and the ACA is overturned.
He talks and talks and talks...without ever proposing any replacement plan.
Biden, meanwhile, speaks intelligently about healthcare.
Biden: He doesn't have a plan. I guess we'll get his healthcare plan when we get his infrastructure plan.
(Missed opportunity to mention tax returns there.)
Biden speaking to people who have lost their healthcare because lost their jobs because of covid.
Trump has nothing to say to people who are suffering, just keeps saying, "socialized medicine."
Biden: Where I come from, people don't live off the stock market...what happens to the ordinary people?
Trump just straight lying about relief. It's the Republicans in the Senate who won't make a deal.
Biden calls him out.
And now Biden is pissed: Democrats passed a bill this summer!
Trump calling the HEROES Act a bailout to poorly run Democrat cities and states.
Biden: I don't see red states and blue states. Every state will start running out of money and have to lay people off because they have to balance their budgets.
Biden is getting really animated now: They need the help. (Names strategies for help.) But they won't give them the help.
Trump is all mixed up. Says he would "consider" a $15/hr minimum wage, but then says it's a state issue.
"Children are brought here by coyotes...and lots of bad people."
What?
"How will you reunite children with their families?"
Trump...refuses to answer.
"Do you have a plan to reunite the families?"
Yes, he says, then changes the subject. No details.
Biden: They didn't come over with coyotes, they came with their parents!
Biden with some righteous anger.
"It's criminal!"
Biden: I'll be president, not vice president. I'll get it done.
That's a strong pivot away from Obama's immigration policies.
Biden: 545 kids who don't know where they're going to be and where their parents are.
Trump: Good.
That's...that's just straight fucking evil.
Biden with a strong answer on institutional racism.
I'm not looking forward to what Trump has to say in response.
Trump actually had a pretty solid response on race, pointed to Biden's crime bill, then listed things he's done.
Don't @ me - I think he's full of shit. His list of achievements is hollow. And Biden is responding strong now. But Trump's people will hear that as strong.
Moderator: Mr. Trump, we're talking about race right now, and I want to stay on that topic.
"least racist person"
Drink!
"least racist person" (second time)
Drink!
Biden: Republican Congress.
Bingo!
That's exactly what I was about to say.
Trump's climate answer right now is...something else. You can tell he rehearsed that.
"AOC +3"
"the climate"
Drink! Drink!
Biden: I don't where he comes from?
Trump: Queens.
Lol.
Wait, Trump just said we're energy independent. What?
Last question: What would you say to people who didn't vote for you on inauguration day?
Trump: He'll ruin your 401k.
Biden: I'm the Ameican president, I will represent all of you.
Initial takeaways...
This was more of a real debate.
And it shows how much Trump hurt himself last time by talking over Biden. When Trump shut up and let Biden talk tonight, it allowed Trump to land some blows and score some points.
If Trump acted like this on the regular, he'd be doing much, much better. But we know this is just not who he is.
He may have stopped the bleeding a little tonight, but he's down big.
Also, covid is top of mind for most. And he sucked on that.
Overall, I don't see this debate changing things. And that means Biden won. Trump needed a gamechanger, didn't get it.
Trump attacked and landed some blows, but failed to actually make a positive case for himself.
Biden, meanwhile, made a strong case around plans and character.
• • •
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tl;dr
* crisis level: 270 cases/day (28.8 per 100k)
* that's +73% over 1wk, +138% over 3wks
* it's also back above where Harvard says shutdowns are necessary
* our current 36k total cases will double as early as Jan1
tl;dr
* 7-day avg: 118 daily cases, 1139 tests, 10.4%+
* cases down 6% over 1wk, 34% over 2wks
* but tests down 6% and 34% too
* so %+ has been flat for 4wks
* also, lowest testing since April!
* and more deception from the mayor
1/
I want to start with this table that @MayorMemphis included in his update yesterday because there are so many things problematic here.
I'll try to correct it.
And then I'll provide the rest of the data.
2/
So, first of all, the data are not clearly labeled. So the 69 total cases, what is that?
Well, it's the number of cases from Wed, 9/9.
And that raises several questions, the first being, why would they use a single-day count rather than a rolling average?
3/
tl;dr
- daily cases are +3% over 6wks, since July 1
- meanwhile, tests are -15%
- up to 28 daily cases per 100k
- at least 3x more testing needed
- we're getting a master class on how to lie with statistics (don't fall for it)
1/
First, the data...
As you can see, both cases and testing have slowed down. We'll talk about this more, but I think it's pretty clear that the drop in testing is directly responsible for the drop in case growth.
2/
Here are daily cases and daily tests reported.
I got some feedback about my trendlines, rec'ing that I change them from linear to polynomial bc it better shows the trends happening.
tl;dr
- hard to know what's actually happening
- testing is WAY down, lowest in 6wks
- that means we're missing cases
- but cases are WAY down, %pos too
- very cautious optimism
- trip wires are finally out, but they are useless
1/
The headliner this wk is that the health dept quietly dropped its long-awaited "trip wires" doc last night.
I'm going to spend a minute on this - I'm so pissed off right now at how worthless this is - so if you want to just see this wk's data, feel free to skip down.
2/
Okay, so first I want to call attention to the fact that the trip wires weren't announced at a briefing, or even via a press release, but rather showed up quietly on the Health Dept socials at 10:22pm on a Friday night.
tl;dr
- record high 425 cases/day this wk
- record high 17% pos
- cases are growing 76% faster than testing
- let's set a goal to open schools after fall break
- shut it down & start over
- we have 3wks if we want school in Q2
1/
Here are total cases, 4 ways:
- since Phase 1/May 3
- since Phase 2/May 17
- Phase 2 thru June 30
- July 1 - Aug 1
- the thing to notice (this is an important & ancient principle in math) is that the more you zoom in, the more the curve looks like a line
- i'll unpack...
2/
When you zoom out & look at cases since Phase 1 or 2, you can clearly see an upward curve, but it's hard to see precisely what's happening.
When you zoom in, it's clear that the curve bent upwards in late June into early July. That's acceleration.
tl;dr
- cases/day are down this wk
- but lest anyone celebrate, testing is down more
- and that's masking the true number of cases
- so positivity rate is above 15%
- w/o testing, lockdown is the only option
- remember march?
1/
14-Day Growth Rate, Cases vs Tests
- as you can see, the blue is above the red
- that means cases are growing faster than testing
- in fact, cases are growing 70% faster
- this tells us the virus is out of control
2/
Avg Covid Cases/Day Per Wk
- as you can see, we're down this wk
- but we know this data are not accurate bc testing is a problem
- we're -13% from last wk, +9% over wk before, = wk before that
- we're +61% over 4wks ago
- now compare these numbers to testing...