THREAD

It's time to familiarize yourself with Colorado's COVID-19 Dial Dashboard

(this is going to be in the news A LOT in the next week or so)

Here is link so you can follow along

#COVID19Colorado

covid19.colorado.gov/data/covid-19-…
There are essentially THREE stages
1.) Protect our Neighbors
2.) Safer at Home
3.) Stay at Home (lock down)

BUT
within "SAFER at HOME" there are three levels
1.) Cautious (blue)
2.) Concern (yellow)
3.) High Risk (orange)

Here is the chart Image
Here is where everyone is right now

(NOTE: Adams and Logan are ONLY counties listed in "Safer Level 3" -- although technically Adams will move to Level 3 on Wednesday)

The MAJORITY of counties are in "Safer at Home" levels 1 (blue) and 2 (yellow) Image
Here's the critical thing to know however.

The current status of a county is NOT indicative of what's taking place in the county right now.

Let's talk about 2 week incidence rates

A LOT of Colorado counties are having problems here Image
So here's the deal. When a county starts to get in trouble (likely with cases to begin with), CDPHE starts what I'll call a formal conversation with the county to tell that county, in essence, "Hey, you. Yeah, your numbers are going up..."

"You need to do something about that"
As of last week, these are the counties CDPHE told me it was having those conversations with

(Adams' plan clearly didn't resolve the problem in CDPHE's eye as it is now moving from Level 2 to Level 3) Image
CDPHE is giving counties what amounts to a grace period.

In essence saying, "Yeah, your numbers aren't good. What are you going to do to get them back down?"

It's why a week or so ago, Denver announced more regs when it comes to masks and gatherings.

9news.com/article/news/h…
BUT...

if the grace period comes and goes, CDPHE has shown (in cases of Adams and Logan) that it will move a county back.

And why is that a BIG DEAL?

Because there's a BIG difference between Safer at Home Level 2 and Level 3.

Look Image
A county will go from allowing 50% capacity in retail, restaurants, offices, and places of worship...

to allowing only 25%

Think of your favorite restaurant and how it might survive 25% capacity.

It's going to be challenging, at best .
And here's the rub.

Let's look at Denver County.

Currently in Level 2. Image
BUT...

it's 2 week incidence rate climbed over 350

379.8 to be precise Image
Why is that A BIG DEAL?

Because, technically, that incidence rate is at the STAY AT HOME LEVEL (remember that? When we are all cooped up inside?)

Now, this doesn't mean we are going back to that.

BUT... it does mean Denver's case rate is NOT getting better. Image
It will make it difficult for Denver to convince CDPHE this week to keep it at "Safer Level 2" (where we are right now... the yellow level)

And, as I said, you already know what going from Safer Level 2 to Safer Level 3 means

50% to 25%
Look for this issue to be a BIG issue moving forward.

Counties are now trying to convince CDPHE not to go backward.

But the numbers are making that difficult.

And this has implications for all sorts of aspects on your life

Schools, offices, churches, restaurants.
If your county moves backward on the dial... it WILL impact your life

So let's pay attention to the numbers. See where this is going.

Remember... don't get angry with me... I'm just the messenger.

But it's time to pay attention folks,

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More from @chrisvanderveen

28 Oct
THREAD on mask use

Yes... I know...

But...

Let's take a look at Adams County. Remember Adams. It's moving to Safer Level 3 today because of, in part, high incidence rates. Image
Adams is clearly having a problem with cases. More so than Arapahoe (red) and Douglas (blue)

This comes from TriCounty Health Image
I think the simplistic thought might be...

well... maybe they're not wearing masks enough...

BUT... fortunately for the purposes of this thread, TriCounty has spent weeks analyzing mask use by trying to count, observationally, mask use.

This is going to get a bit messy.
Read 10 tweets
27 Oct
TUESDAY #COVID19Colorado Update

Headline: "Ok. Let's all take a breath now. Been a big day."

HOSPITALIZATIONS
(covid+ ONLY)

Today: 538 (up 25 from yesterday)
Last week: 417

#9news Image
POSITIVITY

Nearing that 7%... At this rate, we'll top it on 7-day average by end of week

Today: 6.77%

(at start of October we were still in the 3.4% range) Image
CASES

Now averaging (on 7 day) more than 1400 a day

(before this most latest wave, we hadn't seen more than half of that) Image
Read 7 tweets
27 Oct
JUST IN -- @MayorHancock announces Denver will fall back to Safer at Home "Level 3" as Denver experiences sustained rise in cases, positivity and hospitalizations.

Blames those who refuse to believe in science for this.

#9news
To get back to Level 2... Denver must hold lower numbers for two weeks.

This could last "a little while"

Vote centers NOT impacted by this.
"this isn't fear mongering" says Hancock

"A lot of people have put in a lot of hard work," he says. "Businesses have faced a lot of hardships... people's livelihoods are at risk... because some people didn't take this seriously"
Read 7 tweets
27 Oct
Ok... let's do this.

Mitch here just said something I hear a lot from people

"If you are under 34, you have relatively the same chance of dying from lightning"

So let's look at the data
Last year, the National Weather Service reported 20 people died in the US from lightning

Of those 20...

11 were 34 or younger.

Eleven

Remember that number.

Eleven.

weather.gov/safety/lightni…
Now let's look at COVID deaths of people 34 and under.

Fortunately for us, CDC breaks that down here

Since March, CDC reports 2060 people 34 and under have died from COVID

Remember that number.

Two thousand and sixty.

data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provision…
Read 6 tweets
27 Oct
JUST IN - @CityofDenver will announce at 1130am that it is moving back from Safer Level 2 to Safer Level 3. This has big implications for businesses all over city that will now move from 50% capacity to 25%.

#9news
#COVID19colorado
Few things to note...

This is NOT a lockdown.

But it will impact your life in Denver.

I have highlighted a few of the bigger changes Image
Schools?

Under level 3... it's recommended that schools (higher ed and k-12) move to hybrid or remote only

Note... this is a recommendation.

Up to school districts to decide.

Currently, in Denver, K-5 has in-school learning available.
Read 4 tweets
26 Oct
MONDAY #COVID19Colorado update

Headline: "As pressure mounts for counties to control sustained uptick, Colorado's positivity and case counts continue to grow"

HOSPITALIZATIONS
(covid+ ONLY)
Today: 513 (down 2 from yesterday)
Last week: 381

(A one-day blip?)

#9news Image
POSITIVITY

(flirting with 7%)

Today: 6.67% (7 day)

(3 day average is above 7%) Image
CASES

Way up
(testing is way up too) Image
Read 6 tweets

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