Thread by @firstresponses

Memphis/Shelby County
Mid-Wk Covid Report

tl;dr
* 424 new cases per day (45.2 per 100k)
* +105% over 4wks, +205% over 6wks
* we're in the worst wk of the pandemic yet
* we've lost control & are about to drive off a cliff, but there's no one at the wheel

1/

Let's start with the national picture.

This is from @COVID19Tracking.

It's pretty bleak. Cases are growing exponentially, much faster than tests. Hospitalizations are at an all-time high. And we're avg'ing 1200 covid deaths each day.

2/

But @youyanggu estimates that the true number of cases is 3.8 times more than what's being reported.

FYI, Youyang had the most accurate covid model in existence. He's switched from forecasting to "nowcasting," estimating what's happening rather than predicting what will.

3/

He's estimating that the true number of cases in TN is 4.58 times higher than reported.

And so he's estimating that we actually had nearly 20k new cases, not 4300.

And he's estimating that we have had nearly 1.5M total cases, not 300k

4/

Here's our local case rate over time.

We're at 45.2 avg daily cases per 100k.
We hit 45.3 on Aug1.

Remember, Harvard's Global Health Institute says the "tipping point" when stay-at-home orders become necessary is 25 per 100k.

5/

This is daily cases by the date reported. You'll notice that we set a new record yesterday. You'll also notice that our 7-day avg is sitting right at the record. (We're now avg'ing 424 new cases per day. The record is 425. We'll surpass that tomorrow.)

6/

424 avg daily cases
+105% over 4wks (double)
+205% over 6wks (triple)

Meanwhile, testing...
+38 over 4wks
+41% over 6wks

Cases are growing 5 times more than testing over 6wks, nearly 3 times more over 4wks.

7/

Our case positivity is at 22.1%, down from a record-high 22.5% yesterday. The high point this summer was 17.0%, which we surpassed in late Oct.

And our test positivity is 10.8%, a record since they introduced that measure in Sept. Apparently that hit 12.7% this summer.

8/

But we know that, at 10%, we're missing a significant number of cases.

And we know Youyang Gu is estimating that there are 3.8 more daily cases in the US, and 4.58 more in TN, that reported.

So, conservatively, our 424 is likely over 1000 per day in actuality.

9/

Here is daily cases by specimen collection date, from the health dept. It lags by 6days bc, as cases come in, they assign them back to the day the test was done.

At 546 new cases, Nov9 is now the single-highest day of the pandemic. The previous high was 535 on July15.

10/

And this is Shelby County on the state health dept page.

The state is by report date, not specimen collection date. Like mine. But the state pulls the data in the PM, whereas the county reports the data in the AM.

This is important bc the state has already updated.

11/

The numbers the state reports in the PM are usually pretty close to the numbers the county reports the next AM.

And the state is reporting 402 new cases, bring the avg up from 424 to a record 443.

If we get 400 tomorrow, my avg will go from 424 to a record 444.

12/

Long story short...

No matter how you slice it, we're in the middle of the worst week of the pandemic to date.

But there is no meaningful action being taken.

Hell, we just opened strip clubs!

It sucks, but there is no help coming.

13/

Here are the surrounding rural counties, by the way. Notice that almost all of them are doing worse than us.

14/

On a related note, we set a new record for Covid hospitalizations.

This is related to the surrounding tri-state rural outbreaks bc they rely on our hospitals.

Y'all this is the piece that should most concern you. When hospitals fill up, that's when you see deaths spike.

15/

Now, bc the state can open the field hospital at the old CA bldg, we shouldn't have a problem with beds.

The problem will be staffing. There's a national nursing shortage.

NYC was able to recruit nursing from across the country. But now the outbreak is nationwide.

16/

Apparently, over half of ppl continue to go about their daily lives...even after they develop symptoms.

My #1 rule to live by: Don't Be An Ass.

Translated to our current context: Please stay home. Don't wait until you can't get out of bed to stay in bed.

17/

By the way, in yesterday's briefing, they said that the most cases are being linked to 3 activities.

1) Socializing in homes
2) Eating in restaurants
3) Working out in gyms

Please stop doing these things.
- socialize outside
- order takeout, eat outside
- work out outside

18/

Lots of ppl are asking about the trip wires. We're not there.

Yet.

But it's only a matter of time.

Our stats...
424 cases/day
+24 over 1wk
R=1.24
22.1% case positivity
10.8% test positivity

19/

But they said to expect a new health directive on Fri.

Which I don't get.

They have a briefing tomorrow (Th). The responsible thing to do is announce any changes at the briefing and allow reporters to ask questions.

But they'll drop it on Fri, with no briefing for 4days.

20/

Here are updated projections.

It's almost a certainty that we'll be at 500 new cases per day before Christmas.

It doesn't have to be this way.

The #1 thing we need is for Congress to act. Pay ppl, pay biz's, pay local govt. The prereq for closing things is $$$. Period.

21/

I'll close on a personal note.

Covid is closing in fast. I know more ppl infected in the past month than the previous 7mo.

So tomorrow will be my last day in-person for the foreseeable future.

I've loved being with my students. But it won't be safe after Thanksgiving.

22/

Before you go, please take a minute to donate to @LifeLineSuccess. I will vouch for @ministerdbrown & @mrsvjbrown and the work they do with ex-offenders.

They could really use your support.

I'm sending $100.

Can I get 10 ppl to send $10/ea?

lifeline2success.org/get-involved

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