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J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
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7 Jan, 3 tweets, 1 min read
A few small counties aren't posting precinct breakdowns yet for #GASen, but I found 34 Perdue November -> Ossoff January precincts and 5 Ossoff -> Perdue precincts.

About half of Ossoff's 34 flips were in the Black Belt, while all 5 of Perdue's flips were in north Fulton/Cobb.
The state has almost 2700 precincts, so we're still talking about very low turnover.
4 of those 5 Ossoff November -> Perdue January precincts (pink on this map) were in GA-6. Image

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More from @JMilesColeman

J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
6 Jan
well that was a fun election cycle
You guys know what I mean
Next person who brings up NY-22 is getting a block
Read 4 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
28 Nov 20
Taylor Swift’s home county, Berks PA, swung 1.7% against Trump — but he improved in its largest city, Reading. Why? The city is 2/3 Hispanic.

Biden won Reading 72%-27%, down from Clinton’s 78%-19%. More evidence Biden’s struggles with Hispanics weren’t just a Sun Belt thing.
“But Miles, you can’t make sweeping generalizations like that!”

Fair, but fits with what we’ve seen so far. If I drilled into the precincts results, we’d see probably something like this.
Had some other stuff planned but guess I’m gonna have to do a precinct map of this, to show some of you guys what I mean. Given what we’ve seen in other northern states, this was a reasonable inference to make.

And no, I’m not “blaming” any group or another for the result.
Read 4 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
25 Nov 20
With its votes certified, Biden won Minnesota by just over 7%; the same overall result that Mike Dukakis got in 1988. The farm crisis helped Dukakis in Greater MN, which was lighter red. MN-8 is now an R-leaning district. But MN-4 (St. Paul) & MN-5 (Minneapolis) are darker blue. Image
One of those times where I wish we could edit tweets, but MN-8 should have been a shade *darker* blue in 1988. It was Dukakis +19%.

Was debating putting the CD breakdowns on the graphic, and I should have -- I would have caught this. Image
I seriously beat myself up about these small errors, but I think it's best to be transparent!
Read 4 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
20 Nov 20
Around Philadelphia, Biden carried the four suburban collar counties by a combined 59%-40%. This was an improvement from Clinton's 55%-41% margin in 2016. A mild blue shift was broad, though some bleeding in Lower Bucks stands out. Chester County, at Biden +17, was a bellwether. Image
I double-checked Lower Oxford, the dark red in southwest Chester. It was Clinton +22 to Biden +2. There's a HBCU there -- Lincoln University -- so I wonder if schools being online impacted that.
Lower Oxford also cast *fewer* votes than 2016 (rare for the area) so that sort of suggests my guess.
Read 4 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
1 Jul 18
As Orange County, CA finished counting its primary ballots last week, we're going to be looking the House race in #CA45. This Congressional District is entirely in Orange County; it starts north in Anaheim, takes Irvine in the middle, and ends near Mission Viejo.
In 2016, Rep. Mimi Walters (R) won her second term by 17%. The district, which went to Romney in 2012, flipped to Clinton by almost 6%. Walters actually won more Clinton precincts than her Dem opponent, Ron Varasteh, did. #ca45
#CA45, like Orange County in general, has traditionally voted Republican. In fact, Clinton was the only recent statewide Democrat to carry it; even Obama and Feinstein lost it by double-digits. Still, the trend meant that Dems consider this seat a good pickup opportunity.
Read 8 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
13 Apr 18
Ok guys, tonight we'll be doing a thread on last week's Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Democratic-aligned Rebecca Dallet beat GOP-supported Michael Screnock by almost 12%.
#SCOWIS #wopolitics #ElectionTwitter
Compared to Clinton, who narrowly lost, Dallet had a lot of upside. She performed better in 69 of 72 counties. Further, looking at partisan loyalty, nearly 2/3 of her municipalities (496 of 757) voted for Trump. She flipped 24 counties. Only 2 HRC towns went to Screnock.
In the 2016 #WISen race, Sen. Ron Johnson (R) won a rematch w/ex-Sen. Russ Feingold (D). Feingold ran under HRC overall, but better in rural areas. As a result, there were fewer Johnson municipalities for Dallet to flip. She still flipped 432, as well as 18 counties.
Read 11 tweets

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