Thread on the evolution of the #Pakistani Taliban and the changes in strategies that have helped it survive and expand:

.@DaudKhattak1 and I explore this in our story below.

gandhara.rferl.org/a/the-rise-of-…
The TTP has become increasingly decentralized, with significant authority handed to local commanders.

Each commander heads a unit that numbers around 25 to 30 fighters.

This contrasts with previous leaders who appointed commanders for certain zones.
TTP chief Noor Wali Mehsud is the main glue keeping the squabbling factions united. He is known as coalition builder.

Even in a decentralized group, a figurehead is important. Mehsud is more of a religious/guiding figure than a fighter.
TTP appears to have joined forces with secular Baloch separatist groups (which they're ideologically opposed to), showing flexibility

Local sources told us TTP provides military training to Baloch fighters while Baloch separatists assist the TTP with logistics in Balochistan.
TTP’s attack on Serena Hotel, where China's ambassador was staying, suggests it has joined local fight against Chinese interests.

TTP said “locals and foreigners” were the target, then said only "foreigners.”

Could be part of new policy of not openly challenging major powers
The TTP, allies have also increased their anti-China rhetoric recently.

TTP has maintained close ties with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, an Uyghurs militant group.

Before 2014, the TTP hosted ETIM in the South Waziristan where the group ran its own training camps.
TTP has maintained close ties with Al-Qaeda.

But it has "moved away from its global rhetoric which was inline with Al-Qaeda's global jihadist outlook," @basitresearcher notes

Al-Qaeda was politically instrumental in TTP's reunification in August last year.
TTP has reduced indiscriminate attacks against civilians.

In line with TTP efforts to improve public image.

“The new policy is similar to the strategy of the Afghan Taliban,” a source told us. “That means exploiting the weakness of the government and grievances of the people"

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More from @FrudBezhan

29 Jan
Key remarks by Ashraf Ghani during an online program sponsored by the Aspen Institute.

Most of his comments were about the peace process and U.S. policy in #Afghanistan (1)
Ghani also said that the United States - now with only 2,500 troops in Afghanistan - and NATO "must take a very strong stand on the conditions-based approach" to withdrawing their troops. (2)
Ghani said Taliban exploited Trump's rush to pull U.S. forces.

He said after U.S.-Taliban deal, U.S. officials assured him that "there will be a ceasefire or a very substantial reduction of violence."

"Instead, violence has peaked," he said. (3)
Read 8 tweets
28 Jan
Thread on the death of Mangal Bagh, the leader of the #Pakistan-based militant group, Lashkar-e Islam.

Bagh was killed in a mine blast in neighboring #Afghanistan, Afghan and Pakistani security sources told @RFERL
Bagh was killed earlier today in the Nazyan district of Nangarhar Province, which borders Pakistan’s tribal areas.

Mine blast also killed Bagh’s 12-year-old daughter and two of his bodyguards.
Important to add: Bagh, who is believed to be in his 40s, has been reported dead several times before.

Afghan and Pakistani officials have yet to comment on his death.
Read 5 tweets
18 Oct 18
BREAKING: I can confirm that Kandahar's police chief, governor, and intelligence chief have all been killed. This is a huge blow. #Afghanistan
UPDATE 1: My source tells me the #Kandahar governor's bodyguards turned their guns on their own colleagues and U.S. military officials.

Two Americans wounded and evacuated. Top U.S. commander in #Afghanistan present but unhurt, says NATO.
UPDATE 2: #Kandahar police chief and the intelligence head were killed immediately in the attack; governor died of injuries in hospital, my source says.

3 Americans, including a soldier, civilian and contractor, were wounded and had been evacuated, NATO says. #Afghanistan
Read 8 tweets

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