Thread by @DrEricLevi

1. Let’s play a probability game!

A few weeks ago in Melbourne during that 80+ days of #covidzero when Victorian quarantine system was solid, the chance of catching covid was lower than the chance of a blood clot from AstraZeneca vaccine.

2. As it turned out, covid didn’t come from the front door. It came through the back door, through Adelaide, that is, into Victoria.

Now that #covid19 is *everywhere*, with more than 300 exposure sites across Melbourne, guess what happens to your probability?

3. Today the likelihood of you catching a variant of concern which is more transmissible suddenly becomes higher than the probability of you getting a blood clot from AZ Vaccine. Getting a blood clot from a long haul flight is still higher too than clot from this vaccine.

4. I understand that decisions are often hard to make. Everything carries risks.

I’m just here to help navigate the thought processes.

5. I’m no virologist, vaccinologist, public health physician, statistician or gambler.

I’m just a surgeon trying to navigate risks and challenges for my patients.

6. If we had solid borders & leak-proof quarantine, we would be leading normal lives as covid is stopped at the border. Unfortunately, our borders leak 1% of the time.

As a surgeon, if my blood vessel anastomosis repair leaks 1% of the time, it’s still a bleeding complication.

7. There are things that should be a “never-event” as opposed to a “near-miss”.

If the borders were tight, probability of catching covid in community is near zero.

Now that Covid is all over Melbourne, chance of catching covid is higher.

8. Bottom line:

Get vaccinated.

It’s the best excuse to leave your house at the moment. Call/book/walk-ins. Check out the mass vaccinations site internet page, Facebook page or twitter updates. You might get lucky! Team up with one other friend to do this hunt!