Thread on Iran-Taliban relationship:

1- Historically, Taliban and Iran were arch-enemies. Iran supported northern alliance with cash & weapons in the 1990s, and the Taliban retaliated by killing 10 Iranian diplomats & a journalist when they captured Mazar-e-Sharif in 1998.
2- The Taliban delegation visited Tehran at least four times in the past two years to normalize the relationship. It seems both sides are willing to forget the past and start a new chapter. The Q is what they get out of this relationship?
3- Iran wanted the US out of AF. The US is finally leaving and Iran is appreciative of Taliban for making it happen.

4- The Taliban are stronger than ever & they will likely become an important part of next govt. That is why everyone wants to befriend them now, including Iran.
5- The Taliban benefit much more than Iran from this relationship.

6- They get the recognition of an important regional player like Iran, a country which plays a significant role almost everywhere in middle east.
7- Taliban are also planning to take control of central AF, the large white area in the middle, home to ethnic Hazara & religious Shias, who make up between 15-20% of Afg’s population. Taliban have had little success in those areas so far due to lack of local support.
8- Iran’s influence on Hazara/Shia has largely diminished in the past 20 years because the community adopted western values like democracy,election&social freedoms. But the Taliban are trying their luck, using the Iranian card to encourage local population to cooperate with them.
9- For instance when the Taliban attacked Jaghori in 2018 they told local elders in a meeting that they wereseeking to implement an Iranian-type religious system, which is still appealing to some Shia clerics and elders.
10- There are allegations
that #Iran provides weapon for the #Taliban. But close to no evidence exists to prove those allegations. Iran’s engagement has largely been constructive since 2001 in #Afghanistan compared to Pak which has often played a destructive & disruptive role.

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More from @MSharif1990

27 Jul
Thread on Pak-Taliban ties:

1- We know the Taliban leadership is in Quetta, their wounded fighters are being treated in Pakistani hospitals, Pak-based religious Madrasas contribute fighters for them, and most importantly they have close ties with ISI and Pakistan’s military.
2- Despite all these undeniable facts, I dont believe the Talibs are the Pak’s “proxy.” I believe the relationship between the two is based on mutual interests. Talibs want to overthrow
Afg govt & Pak wants to apply constant pressure on a govt which isn’t so friendly toward it.
3- Pak wants the Talibs to be strong enough to counter any Indian-friendly govt in Kabul, but not so strong to seize the power militarily because it would inspire Pakistani radical Islamist parties & groups to wage a bloody war against the secular establishment in the country.
Read 8 tweets
25 Jul
Elite forces make up only about 10% of over 300000 ANSDF, and yet they are doing the bulk of fighting to keep the Taliban at bay. Why the 90% conventional forces aren’t fighting? Why 1000s of them have surrendered& handed over bases,territory&equipment in return for safe passage?
The reasons are:

1- They are undertrained, most of them are deployed to the frontlines only after few months of training.

2- They often run out of ammo&food, & the air force cant supply them on time. They are left to their own fate once they are dropped n remote&besieged bases.
3- Bad leadership at MOI, MOD, presidential palace and its National Security Council(NSC) which micromanages all security and military affairs without any expertise in the field. MOI & MOD has no decision-making power, NSC is interfering almost in everything related to security.
Read 6 tweets

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