fair bit going on with the Doherty modelling:
- CMO Paul Kelly: "We need to accept there will be cases... there will be deaths"
- "low-level restrictions" to remain, even after reopening
- in large 180-day outbreak, at 70% vax, 1900 people may die #auspol thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/08/0…
BUT:
- at 70% of adult population vaxxed, the need for "strict lockdowns would be significantly reduced" (even more at 80%)
- under-40s vax may open in weeks
- quickly vaccinating the young will bring down transmission the fastest #auspol thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/08/0…
the full modelling is here & really interesting. I'm still getting my head round it, but main takeaway for me is the 70-80% marks are based on keeping "light restrictions" for foreseeable future
i.e. once we get to Phase B & C, and adding the other changes/relaxations around more travel and less quarantine etc , the rest of the rules will look like what NSW had in March 2021
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
PM Scott Morrison is releasing the epidemiological modelling from the Doherty Institute, which underpins the 70/80% vaccination targets for reopening
Doherty’s Professor Jodie McVernon is on video screen, about to explain the science
Professor McVernon from Doherty Institute says their modelling found that at 50-60% vaccination, there would still be “rapidly growing outbreaks that would be very difficult to control” - she says that above 70%, that risk is far lower
Professor McVernon: “Vaccination is a very big part of the answer but it is not the whole answer. We must maintain ongoing health and social measures”
Big AstraZeneca/QLD update from acting chief medical officer Professor Michael Kidd - he says since parts of QLD now deemed a COVID hotspot, it meets ATAGI definition for a “large outbreak” - therefore that AZ benefits outweigh risks
ATAGI hasn't yet released a formal statement on this (I've asked)
*however* acting CMO Michael Kidd & federal health minister Greg Hunt say the QLD outbreak means people of all ages in south-east QLD hotspot areas should "strongly consider" getting AstraZeneca
transcripts:
why is this important? Because as recently as this morning, QLD's chief health officer Jeanette Young was saying she was following ATAGI advice in recommending younger people against AZ:
"I said I didn't want 18-year-olds to have AstraZeneca. And I still don't. Even now"
new: YouTube tells me it has “removed videos from and issued a strike to Sky News Australia’s channel” on YouTube, over COVID content
“we don’t allow content that denies the existence of COVID-19 or that encourages people to use Hydroxychloroquine or Ivermectin”
a "strike" means you can't upload videos for a period of time (Sky Australia last YouTube upload was 2 days ago)
FYI this is the "clear and established COVID-19 medical misinformation policies" document they refer to support.google.com/youtube/answer…
for clarity, Sky's YouTube is still active (not deleted, just now restricted), with 1.85 million subscribers. They won't say exactly which videos it has taken down, just that there were several
YouTube says this is Sky's first strike - meaning 7 days banned from posting
breaking: Western Australian Premier Mark McGowan announces a COVID case in a young hotel quarantine guard.
WA Premier Mark McGowan says contact tracing underway - 3 of the man's household contacts have been quarantined and expected to test positive in coming days. "Possible" the man has the UK virus variant
BREAKING: entire Perth metro area, Peel and south-west regions will go into "full lockdown" from 6pm today, until 6pm Friday - a 5 day lockdown
stay-home orders, only "4 reasons" to leave home. Masks at all times outside, inside, public transport
- 439 new cases, 11 deaths
- ADF & Department of Health conducted more than 3,000 door-knocks of people who should be isolating - in more than 800, the person couldn't be found
- "That is completely unacceptable"
VIC bringing in new on-the-spot fine of nearly $5k "for those who breach isolation orders
Andrews says repeat or "selfish" breaches may see court fine of $20k - "for instance, going to work when you had the virus"
500 more ADF & 300 more health dept staff to do more doorknocks
VICpolice minister Lisa Neville says 161 fines issued yesterday, as "a number of people knowingly breached the curfew"
Includes "somebody who decided they were bored and going to go for a drive" and "somebody who decided that they needed to buy a car after 8pm"