More on #biotech #stocks. It's summertime, and there is less activity, definitely on my Twitter feed. A bit more time to look at things in perspective. Those who follow this account will by now be aware that I think there is a #tech #bubble in the stock market that will pop soon.
How soon? I've been saying it for about 1 year, so not soon enough for my predictions. But if we look at the NASDAQ in the last 6 months, it doesn't look very attractive: Image
If we place the different stock indexes in a 1D line, from safer, less risky to more #tech heavy and in my opinion more inflated, here is what we see in the last 6 months: Image
So even though we've had a few daily trading sessions here and there of drops in the NASDAQ of -1.5%, scattered around the last few months, this is by no means a #tech #bubble bursting, as it was my prediction. It is deflating a bit, but one wouldn't expect this slow deflation...
If we look at what happened in the Dot-com bubble, the market went up most furiously, in true bubble behaviour, in the last 7 months of the peak: Image
In comparison, the NASDAQ did have the change of #tech bursting in Feb/March 2020, due to the #COVID19 pandemic. But it recovered faster than it dropped in the Dot-com bubble: Image
Not only didn't it dropped, but after recovering the ~10,000 points, it went on to climb twice as much as it had lost at the bottom of the #COVID19 drop: from 10,000 to 7,000, then back up to 10,000, then 12,000, and up to circa 15,000 at the beginning of August.
Long story short, I think there is a #tech #bubble that will eventually burst. My prediction about 1 year ago was that it would drop to NASDAQ ~ 11,000, but that was already April. Considering the summer holidays, it won't pop, if it does, until late September / early October...
At which point maybe we are closer to the ~12,000 point post #tech #bubble bursting than the ~11,000. Of course, all these predictions are contingent to irrational crowd behaviour, exacerbated by social media and meme stocks. My opinion. I won't invest in the NASDAQ until then. Image

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More from @AlbertVilella

16 Sep
Another twitter thread on (#NGS) technologies, this time focussing on Oxford @nanopore. The company sells their larger instrument, the PromethION, which has some advantages/limitations over other competing technologies:
The advantages of the PromethION are mainly (1) the read length of Oxford Nanopore's technology, which depending on the sample prep method, can go over several megabases, and (2) it's a high-throughput instrument that can run up to 48 individual flowcells, at the lowest cost.
Another major advantage of the technology is that it's not limited to a 4-letter alphabet of unmodified A,C,G,T, but can also natively basecall commonly epigenetic modifications, such as 5mC (methylation) and others, making the use for epigenomic profiling very straightforward.
Read 15 tweets
15 Sep
In #biotech #stocks today, I highlight $BLI Berkeley Lights which is currently down -11%. The trend is still looking downwards since Dec 2020 when it had a remarkable burst of what I would call "frothiness" and since then it's been on a gentle downwards trajectory.
Sometimes these big short hikes are not entirely rational, and as of late, with the emergence of the meme stock phenomenon, normal decent-looking #biotech companies can be hijacked by pump-and-dumpers that don't even care at all about what they invest in.
This is nowadays magnified by the Robin Hood's of the world of investing, which act as an amplifier of the crowd behaviour that is decoupled from any logical thinking.
Read 6 tweets
14 Sep
Oxford @nanopore vs #Illumina #NovaSeq: how far away are they from each other?
I followed with attention the recent PromethION updates, both in terms of new flowcells, with denser pore surfaces, and software and reagents, with the Q20+ basecalling.
It is reasonable to assume that the rollout of the Q20+ updates will be commonplace in the next few months, which means that there is only another decimal in base calling accuracy to put the ONT technology on par with Illumina short-reads. Oxford Nanopore has already announced...
... their work and preliminary results for their updated dual strand base calling, and the modal shows a peak near Q30, which means there wouldn't be much to debate anymore when it comes to per-base accuracy between the two technologies.
Read 11 tweets
2 Sep
In #biotech #stocks news, one of the #LiquidBiopsy #CancerDx stocks in my list is $BNR Burning Rock, a company with presence mainly in Asia that started trading in the NASDAQ a while ago. It is now at lowest levels having recently gone below the $20 mark Image
At around $2B valuation, they are still in the top 10 of companies in the #LiquidBiopsy #CancerDx field: bit.ly/liqbiopsy Image
Notice that #GrailBio is still marked at $2B valuation in my table: this is not the $8B figure that #Illumina is intending to buy it at, but I'll wait until the acquisition is completed (and not legally challenged by the US/EU authorities) before updating the value in the table.
Read 10 tweets
31 Aug
Industry Overview on Biotechnology and Genomics Space (thread):
The era of genomics has now decisively entered the applied sectors of the market, after many years, decades, where the RUO segment was the largest piece of the pie. The lines between genomics and Medtech industries are now blurred and there is lots of crosstalk between both.
Who are the main players in the space: Illumina should be first of the list by market share, with Thermo Fisher Scientific second by overall company size. BGI Genomics dominates in China (NIPT, Cancer Dx). Smaller but distinct in some offerings is Qiagen, who at a point was ...
Read 8 tweets
24 Aug
In the #biotech #stocks #NGS field, there is a company that's recently IPOed and has now presented an update of their plans: $OMIC Singular Genomics @SingularGenomi1 investor.singulargenomics.com/static-files/0…
Their two planned instruments, the G4 and the PX, look physically a lot like competitors to the #Illumina NextSeq and NovaSeq, or the #MGI #DNBSEQ G400 and T7 instruments. But the PX is more of a multi-omics play rather than a higher throughput #NGS machine.
It seems we are about 1 year or 1.5 years away from Early Access / Commercial Launch for the PX, maybe around 6 months earlier for the G4 instrument.
Read 9 tweets

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