1\n Two weeks after publication of @IPCC_ch #AR6 key conclusions have been widely covered. But some background material is hidden within thousands of pages e.g. in chapter 4. This includes the assessed future changes in global surface temperature for different emissions scenarios
2\n For the first time, chapter 4 combined model projections with observational constraints based on past warming, as well as assessed ranges of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR). Accounting for multiple lines of evidence
3\n has reduced the uncertainty range and yields a best estimate that is somewhat lower than the multi-model mean.Comparing the assessed changes (table 4.5) with the climate model ranges (table 4.1) illustrates the effect of the assessment across five emissions scenarios.
4\n The chapter 4 team led by the amazing CLAs @JuneYiLee1 and Jochem Marotzke includes @GovindasamyBala, Long Cao, @Susanna_Corti, John Dunne, @FaEngelbrecht, @erichfischer, John Fyfe, @chrisd_jones, @acmaycock, Joseph Mutemi, Ousmane Ndiaye, Swapna Panickal, Tianjun Zhou.

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More from @erichfischer

24 Aug
Der Klimawandel hat die Wahrscheinlichkeit und Intensität von Starkregen erhöht, die zum Hochwasser in Deutschland und BeNeLux geführt haben, zeigt unsere @wxrisk Attributionsstudie geleitet von @DWD_klima worldweatherattribution.org/heavy-rainfall…
Auch in Zukunft müssen wir mit weiteren Starkniederschlagsereignissen rechnen, welche bisherige Messrekorde deutlich übertreffen und Hochwasserschutz und Warnsysteme ans Klima der kommenden Jahrzehnte anpassen.
Die Studie zieht erstmals die neue Generation konvektionsauflösender Klimamodelle in einer @wxrisk Attributionsstudie bei.
Read 5 tweets
26 Jul
1/n Prepare for the unthinkable.
Our new @NatureClimate study with @Knutti_ETH and @ssippel87 shows that the coming decades will bring more record heat that literally shatters existing temperature records like in the Pacific NW nature.com/articles/s4155…
2/n Like in high jumping, where world records are old and only broken by centimeters – record heat should become rarer and margins smaller the longer we measure. Because of climate change, we observe the opposite –climate is currently behaving like an athlete on steroids.
3/n In high emission scenarios the probability of events with record margins like in 2003 or 2010 to occur anywhere in the NH midlatitudes would increase from 4.5% per year in the recent past, to 22% in the coming decades.
Read 14 tweets

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