1/ Ridings NDP narrowly trails in:
-Halifax (1,249 votes; 2.7%)
-Davenport (147; 0.9%)
-Hamilton Mountain (642; 1.9%)
-Nickel Belt (1,431; 3.9%)
-Parkdale-High Park (473; 2.3%)
-Spadina-Fort York (246; 2.9%)
-Sudbury (700; 2.2%)
-Saskatoon West (239; 1.4%)

#Elxn44
2/
-Kootenay-Columbia (644; 2,2%)
-Nanaimo-Ladysmith (156, 0.3%)
-Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge (736; 2.7%)

Not saying all will flip but I definitely think some will. 30-32 seats seems likely outcome. Mail in ballots will be decisive for some of these very close races. #Elxn44
NDP now very slightly trails in Windsor-Tecumseh (514 votes; 0.9%) but NDP are expected to win this one once all the votes are in.

Whoa, unexpectedly close race in Laurier-Sainte-Marie! NDP only 824 votes behind (4.7%).
London North Centre also fairly close.
NDP 1,218 votes behind; 4.2%
Northwest Territories also close right now.
NDP is only 525 votes behind (4.8%)

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More from @Historian_Matt

22 Sep
1/ Funny how some people fearmonger about Proportional Representation giving the PPC a few seats. Do they forget its predacessor, the right-populist Reform Party, became *offical opposition* under FPTP, then they hijacked the PCs through a merger to form CPC, then formed gov?
FPTP is arguably a much worse system to give rise to the Far Right. Their voters aren't stupid. If they can't earn any representation with their own party they'll hijack the mainstream right-wing one. This is exactly what happened with Reform-to-CPC, and in US to Repubs w/ Trump.
3/ Clinging to a centuries-old, undemocratic electoral system that ensures most votes elect nobody, makes some votes worth more than others, and gives more seats to regional parties than national ones, is ridiculous. Especially when its just to disenfranchise political opponents.
Read 10 tweets
22 Sep
Ridings still in play for NDP
Vancouver Granville: 6,264 vote kits returned; 230 votes short

Davenport: 3,274 kits; 374 short

Windsor-Tecumseh: 2,245 kits; 501 short

Hamilton Mountain: 2,482 kits; 684 short

Parkdale-HP: 6,640 kits; 1,849 short

Spadina-FY: 5,069; 1,320 short
2/
Berthier-Maskinogé: 1,044 vote kits; 904 votes short

Northwest Territories: 1,281 kits, 829 short

Halifax: 3,348 kits, 1,299 short
My personal guess is they take Vancouver Granville, Davenport, Hamilton Mountain and Windsor-Tecumseh but fall short on the other 5.

Parkdale-HP a long shot, but maybe...

Most of the mail-in ballots in Spadina-FY likely returned before the Liberal candidate was kicked out.
Read 4 tweets
21 Sep
THREAD
1/ Attacking Trudeau's credibility was good, but in the last week or 2 the NDP *really* needed to promote their policies and vision for pandemic recovery. It also needed to promote its TEAM of highly competent candidates and that its plan was the most fiscally responsible.
2/ Just as we saw with Ed Broadbent, a popular leader alone can't carry the party to victory. Trying to replicate the 2011 miracle is foolish; we've got to attract more talent to the party and promote the hell out of our candidates; show voters they can handle cabinet roles.
3/ Relying on Singh's popularity with young voters during a pandemic election that was always going to have reduced turnout was a critical mistake. We needed to also attract the 40+ crowd. Singh's peripheral knowledge of policy also hurt the NDP in the debates/interviews.
Read 10 tweets
10 Sep
1/ Final thoughts on #Debate2021:
-Trudeau came off arrogant and hostile, couldn't defend his record on climate change, housing affordability, boil water advisories/reconciliation, pharmacare, etc. I think he takes a hit from this debate to be honest. #Elxn44 #cdnpoli
2/ O'Toole started out affable and seemingly reasonable compared to red faced and belligerent Trudeau. However, the more his platform comes under scrutiny it's hard to see how he grows his support beyond the bump CPC already has. He comes out no further ahead or behind.
3/ Singh stumbled a bit at times, especially at the start, but as the debate went on he found his footing. He smashed Trudeau's credibility, and offered a better alternative for progressive votes. Didn't do enough to produce Orange Wave 2.0, but certainly solidified NDP support.
Read 6 tweets
8 Sep
1/ It is truly astounding the number of intelligent, politically astute, truly progressive Candians who, election after election, are persuaded by market research polls, peer pressure, and fancy campaign ads to lend their votes to the Liberals *just* to stop the Conservatives.
2/ Here's the thing. On occasion, a United Front is needed to stop a truly bad leader or party from winning. But voting for Liberals *every single election* just to stop the Cons is like relying on tape to stop a leaking sink. Eventually you need to actually repair the leak.
3/ If you're a progressive and you actually want to see universal pharmacare/dentalcare, a Guaranteed Livable Basic Income to eliminate poverty, electoral reform for a stronger democracy (and permanent end to threat of false majorities) etc. then you cannot keep voting Liberal.
Read 11 tweets
10 Jun
THREAD 2:
1/ This is a good question. @MPJulian hammered the Liberals for giving the Big Banks $750 billion within days of the pandemic yet by October 2020 they hadn't fulfilled their commitment to provide financial aid to people with disabilities.
2/ April 29, 2020: Liberals agreed to raise the CESB student benefit to $2,000/month for students with disabilities (and/or those with kids). This was one of the NDP's demands to pass the bill. It was limited to students but was a policy win.
ctvnews.ca/health/coronav…
3/ In June 2020 the Liberals tried to bundle a one-time relief payment for people with disabilities into an omnibus bill which had many provisions the opposition parties could not support. NDP criticized the limited eligibility and fought for a new bill.
beta.ctvnews.ca/national/polit…
Read 7 tweets

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