My bull case on $BTC/$ETH and certain digital goods:
- Omicron causes producers like China to (partially) shut down, exacerbating supply chain issues
- Consumer countries like the USA don't have the appetite for more shutdowns, so they continue doing what they do best: consume
- This supercharges inflation, which is already 😬
- What happens when inflation expectations move from transitory to "less transitory?" People buy inflation-protected assets.
- IMO BTC/ETH are ground zero, but so is art. Check this out from the NYT, 2009:
- this upward pressure will be partially offset by a general de-risking in risk assets, of which #NFTs are at the forefront
- as people covet a relatively outperforming ETH, I expect NFT volumes to fall. Liquidity will continue to dry up (Coinbase wallets will help offset).
- however, this also means that prices in many projects like punks and 1/1 art are likely to hold up
- Personally I like floors and/or the top 1% of most established NFT projects. The stuff in the middle is going to be tough if I'm right and liquidity dries up
As always I'm open to differing views. I'm wrong a lot so DYOR. Stay well my frens ✊
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September was the 3rd highest month ever for 1/1 #NFT art sales, and October is currently on pace to break that record. Money did indeed flow into 1/1 after an orgy of generative and collectible (punks) buying.
And things did slow at the lower end of generative.... that Xcopy I highlighted ended up selling for 200E, which today would be considered a bargain, while the current Fidenza floor is 150
Punks Floor: 95
AB Ringers Floor: 144
Avg 1/1 art sale on SR: 5E
I've been thinking a lot about why this persists and here's my view:
1) Fun 2) Certainty
I'm going to dive into both and then make some predictions....
1) Fun: memeability and community are 2 biggest drivers. e.g. The better the community the more valuable the project. I can't stress enough how big this is in driving #NFT values
Why do people love punks, BAYC, or even stupid shit like Dogecoin and Gamestop?
BECAUSE IT'S FUN
2) Certainty: this comes best when there's a fixed supply.
And when there's a fixed supply you can drive liquidity.
Why did 3AC buy the hell out of punks and Art Blocks a few weeks back? Because they know there's a fixed supply that is easily valued because it's liquid.
I decided to make this because I get a lot of questions about my views on 1/1 art versus other categories. This sums up how I feel about the entire space right now:
New wallets come in and usually start at collectibles... it's safe and requires just a small amount of work to fully understand. They're easy avatars and a good way to get your feet wet.
Stage 2 is generative art, which has seen a MASSIVE uptick in recent weeks. Those new wallets are doing more work and finding the primo projects.
I have a few thoughts on the @SuperRare bombshell today:
1/ A point I have made so many times: Decentralization is and has ALWAYS been the point of crypto. Digital art and #NFTs (via crypto) are inseparable; we need each other.
SR just bet their entire existence on it. 🤯
2/ How did they do this? Note that artist royalties don't change in ANY scenario, but now all fees that SR used to pocket are going to their DAO, which is governed by $RARE tokenholders (but there is a DAO oversight committee whose powers are unclear to me)
3/ Here's the part that really excites me: The DAO Treasury (40%) plus this drop (15%) will own a majority stake (55%) of the overall voting power, while SR's VCs will control just 14.5%. It's unclear how SR corporate will make decisions v the DAO, but this is a solid step: