Robert Gilbey Profile picture
Jan 22 11 tweets 5 min read
Time for another thread.

A live fire Russian naval exercise has been scheduled inside the Irish EEZ, at a time when tensions on Russian military build ups relative to Ukraine are high.

What do we know and what can we speculate on?
Now, disclaimer, I am in no way a naval or ASW authority and will bow to the experience of others.

First question.

Why that location?

Let's explore the terrain. The Porcupine Seabright.

A deep, enclosed area, with only a western access point. Ideal for protecting a submarine?
It certainly helps if that western access point has an armed naval blocking force protecting it.

The red box is where the Russians will be firing into.
What's interesting is that this exercise box is 170 nautical miles off the south coast of Ireland.

Incidentally, so was a suspicious Russian trawler suspected of deploying submersibles back in July 2021 170nm away.

Could that previous event have been sub-surface reconnaissance?
Others may recall that the Russians flew their ASW TU-142 Bears over that location in March 2020 too.

Perhaps that was a sub surface signal mapping exercise? Testing 🇮🇪 reactions, or lack there of?

There's a lot to suggest battlespace preparation here.

Also worth noting there's a fair few subsea cables in that area too.

So perhaps there is a risk to data communications?
@Andy_Scollick makes an interesting point here.

If the Kalibr-M is in play, that changes the strategic and tactical dynamic for EU and Nato countries.

Assuming the max range of the Kalibr-M is 4500km, and can travel at a speed of Mach 2.5 (3087kmh), then the images below give an indication of what is in range of that capability and how long it would take to get to capital target from the Exercise Area inside Ireland's EEZ
We don't know what is going to happen.

We don't know what the Russians are doing.

We can't see what's happening in Irish skies.

We can't see what's happening under the surface of the water.

We have no way of preventing something bad happening.

What's your plan @simoncoveney?
On this, there is adequate reason to disregard my previous assumptions in this tweet.

@GrangerE04117 offers good analysis here.

Nonetheless, it may be worth looking at the known missile capabilities that have proven compatibility with existing platforms

Adding a correction and new assumptions here.

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More from @RobGilbey

Jan 12
Cutting a cable may not constitute an act of war, but that doesn't mean the cable isn't a military target.

What are the implications of subsea fibers being considered military targets?

What @naval_service capabilities should we have to protect this critical data infrastructure?
Firstly, severing a subsea fiber isnt as simple as it sounds. Breaking a cable is one thing, severing it, is quite another.

Fiber optics are lightweight glass products, but propagating light across oceans requires power, so the cable is more a power cable as it is a fiber cable.
What's worth noting is that as the technology evolves, the form factor of subsea cables start to change.

More fiber cores are being pumped into small cables, means longer cables can be spooled onto cable laying ships.

But that presents a challenge

There is no one size fits all
Read 15 tweets
Jan 10
Is neutrality a hill worth a United Ireland dying on?

Hypothetically, if a #UnitedIreland was conditional on the State applying for @NATO membership, would it be worth surrendering the undefined policy of #neutrality?

@sinnfeinireland
@fiannafailparty
@FineGael
@labour
To get as broad a viewpoint as possible, any retweets of the poll would be appreciated.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 10
Too many questions to answer in a single tweet, so I'll thread my reply.

Firstly, I will ask what is your interpretation of #neutrality?

I have to ask because Irish neutrality is subjective

It is not a written policy, nor is it recognised officially by any other nation or body
Actually, the latter point isn't strictly accurate, as @NATO acknowledges Ireland's "military neutrality" (note: they spelt out what it means to them).

Beyond that, there's no legally binding defined statement of Irish neutrality.

It does not exist.

nato.int/cps/en/natohq/…
"Military Neutrality" is meaningless, the term is a self-licking lollipop.

Unless the country is run by a Junta, the military doesn't have a say in where it gets deployed. As an instrument of political will, it is completely indifferent.

Politically, Ireland is far from neutral
Read 14 tweets
Mar 11, 2021
The last line is telling.

THREAD

The @IRLCoDF need to be seen to do something on #Cyber because @IRLDeptDefence offloaded general #CyberDefence responsibility onto @Dept_ECC & @ncsc_gov_ie.

But The National Cyber Security Strategy doesn't cater for defensive & offensive Ops.
So how can the @IRLCoDF build that capability into the @defenceforces as part of it's recommendations?

SPOILER:

It can't all sit with the Communication and Information Services (CIS) Corps.
1st, the @defenceforces needs an Intelligence Corps.

One that has career structures built to develop talent in the field of technical and military Int collection, collation, analysis & effective dissemination.

We need to be capable of making big data driven decisions fast.
Read 16 tweets
Feb 14, 2021
Irregular warfare has and continues to be a feature of modern conflict.

Should Ireland have an Irregular Reserve as part of an Irish Resistance Operating Concept?

It's not as dramatic as it sounds.

At <0.3% GDP spent on Defence, Ireland can't afford to build a mass of professional part time combat arm Reservists.

The current model of relying on individuals to be professional military standard volunteers has failed.

So if armed volunteers is the policy, how can it work?
Conscription or National Service in Ireland?

Given the discourse around EU Armies, I sincerely doubt that either be acceptable to the public without some existential driver behind it.

Conscription is typically viewed through a 20th century lens.
Read 13 tweets
Dec 17, 2020
Thread:

"With regard to the RDF, the Commission will consider a wide range of options and will make recommendations to better leverage the capabilities of the RDF in their supports to the PDF and to make service in the RDF a more attractive option."

Let's unpack that.....
Thankfully, the "Abolition of the Reserve" wasn't considered an option in the Terms of Reference as it was in the DoD's 2012 "Value for Money" Review of the RDF.

I would link the source, but the DoD have opted not to host it despite it informing the 2015 White Paper Policy.
The 2012 Steering Committee comprised of Civil & Military (but not a single Reservist) personnel saw no role for the Reserve as the "PDF could meet all day-to-day tasks".

8 years on, & DF capability is limited due to a crippling retention crisis as a result of DoD mismanagement.
Read 30 tweets

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