🧵-I was interested to see when is #es_f most likely to put in high of day (HOD) or low of day (LOD) so I looked into some data. I had previously looked at how often 30m Opening Range puts in HOD or LOD, but now I am interested in how often which trading period put in HOD or LOD.
Each ‘period’ represents a 30 minute candle. The periods are labeled with letters, starting with A for the RTH open, and M for last 30 minutes of RTH close. Google TPO/Market Profile for more info. I used 276 trading days, first day was 1/4/21. Last Trading day, 2/11/22.
Here is the bar graph for periods where we put in HOD, pretty interesting to see that A and M period put in HOD over 50% of the time, while only being 15% (2/13) of the RTH time.
Similar chart for what period we put in LOD, but we are more likely to put in LOD in the first period than any other period (bull market stuff right?)
Here are some examples for what I think this data supports. On 2/8/11, we put in LOD in A period and HOD in M period. Shown on the chart is the highlighted area (1 hour OR), Hi/Lo for 1 hour IB labeled AB on the right side, H/L - A-L, H/L - M, 24h VWAP and some retracement zones.
and here is 2/11/22, HOD is A period, LOD is M period. I am not sure why this happens, but there are some good takeaways from it.
TL;DR - don't fade trend, and hold runners till end of day. If you are still in a runner after ABCD period, holding until at least new HOD/LOD in M period is not a bad idea IMO. Thanks for coming to my ted talk.
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Thread 1/5: After seeing such a clean rejection off of the 30m OR (opening range) for #NQ_F on Friday, I thought of @Michigandolf, who loves the 30m OR. I then wondered how often we close below or above the 30m OR. I decided to do the math so you don’t have to.
Although #ES_F did not reject the 30m OR like NQ on Friday, it did reject the open. You can see the highlighted area around open is the 30 second OR, popularized by @paxtrader777 and shared by a few others. My favorite opening range on my chart.
I was surprised, I would have guessed we closed outside of the 30m OR ~50% of the time or less, but actually we close outside of the 30m OR 73% of the time. NQ even closes outside of the 60m OR more times than it closes inside.
I received questions about how to create spreadsheets in Sierra chart, so here it goes, long thread. This is my process.
We will use 2 charts, 1 chartbook. Chart 1 is a time candle with various hi/lo time period studies for whatever you are looking at, I used 30 second candles.
Now how I prefer to do things is go to a daily candle chart and overlay the studies, this reduces the amount of data cleaning I need to do before analyzing, otherwise it would show OR row on every candle row. "Study/Price Overlay" is how I overlay studies.
Find your study you want and overlay it, rename it so it’s easier to find in the "short name:" section
1/x Wow, my first thread.
Analyzing the NQZ21 contract, I looked at 9/2 to 12/10 and at various opening ranges (OR), gap fills and overnight high/low. I only looked at the last 72 days. I downloaded data from Sierra chart and analyzed it in excel. #NQ_F#NQ
2/x I did use NQ close data from Yahoo finance because the previous close line on SC was being stubborn and not giving me correct data (probably my fault). There’s a bunch of numbers and percentages, you can scroll to the end if you’d like, or ignore it. idc.
3/x 30m OR L =LOD 38.9% (28/72)
30m OR H =HOD 31.9% or (23/72)
So 70.8% (51/72) of the time, the 30 min OR puts in HOD or LOD.
Which means both sides are broken 29.2% (21/72) because the 30m OR did not put in both the HOD and LOD at any point.