Thread by @cobbo3

LONG THREAD: To know Uganda is to understand how its relatively fertile lands, water, and bountiful harvests shape its social dynamics, politics/democracy, and geopolitical posture in Eastern Africa and the Great Lakes 1/14

Uganda has lower food prices, and a higher calorie intake than ALL the countries in Eastern Africa that have more mechanised agriculture, irrigate several times more, and use fertilisers at far higher levels than it does 2/14

A family member in 🇺🇬 passed by her farm this weekend, filled her car with all the food that would go in, and in Kampala dropped it off FREE to family and friends. No fertilisers, no GMO etc. She tells me; “I literally put it in the ground and voila”. She isn’t alone 3/14

Because they have lots and cheap food, Ugandans have contempt for their political leaders because they “don’t feed us” (an expression that doesn’t exist in some other African cultures). There's a downside to that... 4/14

The govt doesn’t subsidise any food or set prices. In parts of western UG rivers of milk used to form after farmers poured it away. Uganda’s staple foods (matooke/bananas, millet) aren’t bought in supermarkets like maize flour in Kenya or Tanzania 5/14

Food in UG – its price, availability etc – is a private affair between consumers, farmers, and traders. You rarely hear anyone ask the government to do something about food, except when a drought threatens famine (even then, it's a distribution, not availability, problem) 6/14

During the deadly 20-year war in northern Uganda, the region still had fewer stunted children than other peaceful “prosperous” regions – because of abundant millet. Its birth rates soared, which – ironically – has now raised its political currency as a voting bloc 7/14

Political economists argue that because Ugandans are well fed, they can’t be angry enough to go to the streets in LARGE NUMBERS for LONG PERIODS. Corrupt and repressive govts can survive long if they stay away from the people's gardens 8/14

It also means that political resistance and armed rebellion – and there have been many – will almost always be started and led by a radicalised or aggrieved elite. They will rarely be broad workers’ or peasant movements (despite the propaganda to the contrary) 9/14

Food has been a key plank of Uganda’s relations with its neighbours; a key export to most. In the 2019 border stand-off with Rwanda, Uganda reportedly calculated that Rwanda would “starve” within 6 months and reopen its borders 10/14

It didn’t. Long story why. Instead, Rwanda weaned itself off dependence on Ugandan food. But a silent crisis arose in southwestern Uganda from an unsold food surplus. Official data shows the region had some of the sharpest recent rises in poverty 11/14

The recent rapprochement with Rwanda has many aspects to it. One of the cold realpolitik reasons is to solve the food surplus crisis in southwestern Uganda – and manage the likely fallout from it ahead of 2026 election (when Museveni will likely seek a record 9th term) 12/14

In east and north 🇺🇬 dynamics R better with a lucrative food trade going on with Kenya & South Sudan. President Museveni’s good electoral fortunes in once hostile northern Uganda, R really down to his S. Sudan policy and the wealth it has brought farmers in northern Uganda 13/14

In Uganda, among the cultural purists, if you visit and you don't carry live chicken, matooke, potatoes, groundnuts, beans, millet, pumpkin, jack fruit, pineapple, fresh maize, or sugarcane in the boot, you are considered uncultured, uncivilised🤪🤪🤪 14/14

While still the Monitor, a friend returning from an upcountry work trip bought lots of food on the roadside inexpensively. He pulled up in the office parking lot with fruits, bananas, potatoes, a sack of charcoal (to my horror) - and he'd also bought for me a goat!!!🤪🤣