Mark Kersten Profile picture
Mar 5 13 tweets 3 min read
I was recently asked about the possible effects of the #ICC's intervention on resolving the conflict in Ukraine and de-escalating violence.

So, a few thoughts 🧵👇
First, the #ICC's investigation won't solve the war or likely even do much for peace.

Peace isn't on the table and the effects of the Court are often much more modest than people imagine.

Any suggestion otherwise is wrong and unnecessary for support of the Court.
The ICC's effects on belligerents depends on how they view the Court.

Putin's well aware that the ICC likely has him in its cross-hairs, if not for what is happening now, then for Crimea and Georgia. There's no reason to believe he cares. He has stayed silent on the subject.
As with Gaddafi in Libya, I think the conflict in Ukraine has shifted and is now existential for Putin.

When that happens, it's v hard to 'save face' without 'winning'. When that happens, avoiding the commission of atrocities becomes less of a concern. I don't think Putin cares.
It is possible - *possible, not probable* - that some lower ranking authorities and officials will modify their behaviour if they believe (whether or not it's actually true) that the ICC may target them. But seeing what is happening, it seems unlikely.
I do think there is a decent chance that Ukrainian authorities are taking the ICC's intervention seriously. They have an obvious interest in staying on the 'good' side of IHL and ICL, plus justifying an investigation slanted against Russia. That might deter some atrocities.
Not that it needs much 'help' but the conflict narrative is clearly (and rightly) one where responsibility for the war and the vast majority of violations is on Putin and the Kremlin.

Kyiv will be wise to keep it that way, and the best way to do that is avoid any atrocities.
On Russia, a very optimistic view for peace would be that the ICC - in addition to sanctions, the ICJ, collective action, supplying Ukraine with arms, etc - can help isolate Putin to the point of regime change.
There are a lot of ifs though: *if* regime change happens, *if* whoever takes over isn't worse than Putin, and *if* Russia itself does not collapse in civil conflict, then maybe one could say the ICC helped bring about a more peaceful region. But that's hypothetical.
All of this being said, there are good reasons to support an #ICC investigation. No reason is more powerful than the fact that the ppl of Ukraine have asked for it, for years.
It would be cruel to say that because the ICC isn't a panacea, it shouldn't try to bring about a modicum of justice.
While ICL is not spread equally & this is deeply problematic, it is likewise wrong to espouse whataboutism & suggest that Ukraine should not receive attention from the ICC just bc other states or actors don't.

I hope justice in/for Ukraine makes justice elsewhere more possible.
Above all, in Ukraine and anywhere the Court intervenes, expectations need to be managed. The ICC won't 'solve' anything. But it is crucially important that it respond to the calls of civilians to investigate and prosecute mass atrocities. Let's not lose sight of that.

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