Comfort Ero Profile picture
Mar 16 21 tweets 5 min read
The war in Ukraine is the gravest immediate peril to international peace & security for decades.

Its global impact is already widely felt, from Venezuela to Iran. This is only the beginning.

Ahead of an upcoming @CrisisGroup statement, a few thoughts on why we should all care:
This conflict is not more important because it is in Europe.

It is important because it raises the risk of direct confrontation between nuclear-armed powers and ruptures crucial cooperation between the West and Russia.
A key example is US-Iran nuclear talks, aimed at reviving the #JCPOA.

Gaps had been narrowing in Vienna. But now, Russia demands guarantees that its trade with Iran be exempted from the harsh sanctions it faces over Ukraine.
In the past Russia and Western powers compartmentalised disagreements and collaborated on a shared non-proliferation objective, but Russia's calculus appears to have shifted.

This could stymie the deal while shutting a rival oil exporter out of the market.
Hopefully these are tactical moves and can be resolved because the deal remains critical to all concerned.

However, implications of a rupture would be significant, not just diplomatically but with potential knock-on effects in Syria, where both Russia and Iran support Assad.
Furthermore, as @RichardGowan1 noted, if Russia and the US are unable to cooperate on other crises through the UN Security Council, the effects will be felt widely, from Libya to Mali and CAR.
foreignaffairs.com/articles/west-…
Importantly, peace negotiations and humanitarian provision in other conflicts – from Ethiopia to Afghanistan – could also be compromised as policymakers focus all their efforts on Ukraine.
Offering more evidence of the war’s unpredictability, fears over rising oil prices have opened up a new path to negotiations between the US and Venezuela.

Russia’s invasion is the gravest violation of another country’s sovereignty since the 2003 Iraq war.

It's also an aggression by a nuclear-armed state against its neighbour, which NATO powers, 3 of which are nuclear-armed, support.

The danger of direct confrontation looms large.
Every step must be taken to avoid this kind of escalation.

This includes ruling out a no-fly zone over Ukraine, which would essentially amount to a declaration of war against Russia — bringing us perilously close to a nuclear confrontation.

crisisgroup.org/europe-central…
I couldn’t agree more with @OlyaOliker:

'There is certainly a visceral appeal to proposals that would have NATO forces directly help Ukraine. But these would dramatically heighten the risk that the war becomes a wider, potentially nuclear conflict.'
foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukrai…
Even as Western countries support Ukraine with arms, impose sanctions and deploy additional troops to NATO member states on the alliance’s eastern flank, they must continue to do whatever they can to minimise risks of direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.
At the same time, they must clearly communicate to Moscow their red lines, including attacks on their own territories, which would trigger a confrontation.

They must also ensure that their efforts support negotiations to end the war in a way acceptable to Ukraine.
That means keeping lines of communication open, paying attention to how NATO actions might be interpreted in Moscow, avoiding talk of regime change and making clear that they will lift at least some sanctions if Russian troops withdraw.
Beyond containing the conflict, the humanitarian consequences are dire.

Many civilians have been killed. Nearly 3 million people have fled, the vast majority being women, children, and the elderly, because Ukraine has prohibited most men from departing the country.
Despite the warm welcome refugees are getting in neighbouring countries, they will face a wide range of challenges, including from those who see women without men as prey.

In Russia, those protesting the war are being brutally repressed and some are already leaving.
This catastrophe will be felt far beyond Ukraine as the impact of war and subsequent western sanctions destabilise the global economy.

We are already seeing oil, commodity and gas prices rocketing.

The brunt of this cost will be felt hardest by those who can least afford it.
The war has already triggered a meteoric rise in wheat prices, triggering fears of food insecurity.

As @PhilaniMthembu pointed out last week on The Horn it seems likely that “living standards in Africa are going to either stagnate or decline”.
crisisgroup.org/africa/ukraine…
There are also environmental considerations.

Some of these are in Ukraine, where fighting near and over power plants and other facilities raises serious risks.
Globally, rising prices at the pump have fueled calls for increased drilling in a worrying sign that ‘energy independence’ may come at the expense of green policies.

Yet this is exactly the time to accelerate transition to renewables.
Finally, every death, every casualty, every displaced person during war is a tragedy no matter where it takes place, and extraordinary efforts to help Ukrainian refugees show how Western governments can better welcome those fleeing conflict elsewhere.

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More from @EroComfort

Feb 2
The coup attempt in #GuineaBissau yesterday came weeks after the military takeover in Burkina Faso and follows last year’s coups in Chad, Guinea, Sudan and Mali.

What drives these more frequent power grabs? The answer is:

it is complicated 🧵
bbc.com/news/world-afr…
As most of these countries are situated in West Africa, it would be easy to think the drivers of these coups are the same across the board, but the reality is more complex:
The January 2022 coup in #BurkinaFaso followed a growing insecurity in the country, a rise in #jihadist militancy and an increasingly frustrated army, especially after a deadly attack on 14 November 2021 left 53 soldiers dead, the highest death toll ever in one single attack.
Read 14 tweets

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