Daniel Hamilton Profile picture
Mar 20 โ€ข 16 tweets โ€ข 7 min read
Three weeks since the start of Russia's illegal war against ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ#Ukraine, I wanted to take stock of where different regional players and influential states are in respect of support for Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions on Russia. (๐Ÿงต)
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ #Armenia: A muted response. No sanctions or public comments from the Pashinyan govt. 10k Russian troops on Armenian territory plus concern about Nagorno Karabakh security have neutered the country's response. Clearly concerned at alienating/antagonising Russia.
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ #Armenia: Voted against expelling Russia from the Council of Europe. Abstained on the UN votes on suspending Russia from the Human Rights Council and resolution condemning Russia's actions in the UN General Assembly.
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฟ #Azerbaijan: Sending humanitarian aid to Ukraine and is providing free fuel to their military. Abstained from the vote on booting Russia from the Council of Europe. ๐Ÿšจ May use Ukraine crisis as cover to reignite war with Armenia in Nagorno Karabakh.
Baltic states - ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช #Estonia, ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป #Latvia, ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น #Lithuania - Working closely with #Poland to drive a strong EU-wide sanctions policy, alongside calls inside #NATO for coordinated military support for Ukraine. Exercising key pressure in Washington DC for US engagement in the region.
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ #Belarus: Has descended into being an unambiguous Russian client state โ˜ ๏ธ. Belarusian territory has been used to launch direct attacks on Ukraine and Belarusian troops appear likely to enter into direct combat with Ukraine in the coming days.
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ช #Georgia: A mixed response. Govt has refused to join the coordinated sanctions against Russia. However, govt supported UN res. re: Russia's attack, suspension of RU membership of the Council of Europe and launch of International Criminal Courtโ€™s investigation into war crimes.
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ช #Georgia: National Bank had said, independently of government, that it will act โ€œin accordance with the international resolutions and standards and cannot and will not help evading implementing [financial] sanctions" on Russia.
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท #Iran: President Raisi has given indicated public sympathy with Russia's position: โ€œNATO expansion is a serious threat to the security and stability of independent nations". Has, however, called for a cessation of fighting.
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท #Iran: Has not recognised Donetsk/Luhansk "independence" and abstained on UN General Assembly motion condemning Russia - notable given Tehran's usual reliance on Russian diplomats to water down UN sanctions/motions condemning its own behaviour.
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ #Israel: A slow and halting approach. Initially refused to join sanctions but later reversed course. Has provided humanitarian aid but no weapons. Domestic pressures from ethnic Russian political parties are stymying the country's stance.
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฟ #Kazakhstan: Full member of Russia's Eurasian Economic Union and Collective Security Treaty Organization defense grouping. Has refused to condemn Russia's actions yet has not recognised Donestk/Luhansk "independence".
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฉ #Moldova: Largest single recipient of refugees (300+k) from Ukraine. Subject to huge internal pressure from Russian troops stationed in occupied Transnistria in eastern Moldova. Has issued an EU membership application in response to the crisis.
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ #Poland: Has moved heaven and earth to support Ukraine - from refugees to weapon supplies. Essentially serving as Ukraine's chief advocate/champion inside EU institutions. A key pressure point inside NATO driving sustained US interest in and financial support for Ukraine.
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท #Turkey: Significant provider of military equipment to Ukraine, incl. highly-effective Bayraktar drones. Has rejected Russian request war navy ships to pass through the Bosporus but has not joined the western sanctions regime. Convening negotiations between RU/UA.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฟ #Uzbekistan: A stand-out supporter of Ukraine in Central Asia. Govt has refused to recognise "independence" of Donetsk and Luhansk. Foreign Minister Kamilov: "hostilities and violence must stop immediately". Sending humanitarian aid.

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