1/ Back in action! Sorry for being on a hiatus for so long. First, a personal update, I'm now fully dedicated to web3! Today was my last day on my 2-week notice. Second, we've ramped up @p2eanalytics, so expect some news, frequent feature additions and #p2e content!
2/ With that said, let's kick off with an update on @playcrabada's economy!

We all know that $TUS inflation has increased. Here's some numbers:

Daily Mint: 38.7MM (1.8% per day)
Daily Burn: 20.7MM (-1.0% per day)
Net Addition: 18.0MM (0.8% per day)
3/ In the above chart, you'll see that inflation has increased more than breeding. What's interesting is that the daily issuance % has been steady relative to historical trends, so the core issue is lower breeding (I know, obvious). The blue line (burn) has trended up (less burn)
4/ Breeding needs to be incentivized through profits. In the past few months, the price of crabs and the number of crabs sold has stalled. This implies lower profits for breeders who have been breeding more crabs.
5/ Breeders keep breeding more, however, eggs as % of total population has declined from 9.0% in early February to 6.7% in early May. So, the pace of population growth is decelerating.
6/ The divergence between # of crabs sold being flat vs. growth in egg count means that breeders aren't able to liquidate as much inventory (impacting working capital) or there's significant off market sales going on. Given $TUS burns has been flat, I'm assuming it's the former.
7/ The key metric is player growth. There are 13,937 $TUS holders growing 0.8%/day since 4/18, a bit slower than before. Crab population is growing at 1.4%/day since 4/18, a bit slower than before, but much higher than TUS holders. Crab/holder = 8.0, highest ever.
8/ The economy is clearly in a deep recession. The high gas prices coupled with the lower TUS prices, has made generating rewards tough. The upside catalyst that we've all been waiting for is the @swimmer_network and the Battle Game.
9/ The Swimmer Network will be much faster and will utilize $TUS as the gas token. Keep in mind that Crabada will not be the only game on the subnet, there will be many more that will utilize $TUS as the gas token. So expect $TUS burn to increase, helping solve inflation issues.
10/ The Battle Game will enable discipleships ("scholarships"), meaning you can delegate your crabs to other players in exchange for splitting rewards. This can help solve the player growth problem.
11/ Tavern Guide: ROI has collapsed. The cheapest way to play the game is to buy 1 crab and rent it out. If 1 crab is expensive for you, check out @Craba_DAO for cheap entry
12/ Mining w/ MR Guide: The best choice are combinations that include primes for the 10% bonus. MR is an estimate and not all team combinations are included. Analysis doesn't include gas fees which impact profits. Check out @0xminersfren to determine if you should reinforce.
13/ Mining w/ no MR Guide: If you don't have time to reinforce, mine to lose. This generates more rewards than the Tavern assuming you can mine at least 5 time a day. Best bet is combo of cheap crabs + none-pure prime for the 10% bonus. Gas fees might make this attractive.
14/ Breeding Guide: This uses the ABC loop method. ABCD is more optimal. I'm not factoring in mining/looting which improves ROI. Best bet are primes.
15/ Breeding Guide: ABCD method results in lower ROI days for the initial investment. ABCD method assumes you buy two sets of parents to start off with.
16/ Looting Guide: Does not factor in gas fees! Not all combinations are included here. Both options below have the same ROI. I assumed 2 mines and 8 loots given the point system.
17/ Good accounts to follow for Crabada: @0xminersfren (mining profitability bot), @deepinthesesh (reports), @KingSkyWing (reports), @Gojo_Crypto (data), @rogeravax (alpha), @_acap_acap (alpha), @TradingAloha (alpha), @_crabradio (🎙️), @TheCryptoGemini (alpha and memes)

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More from @mikocryptonft

Apr 15
Here's an update on @PlayCrabada's #P2E economy. @P2EAnalytics is undergoing updates so back to excel!

A. Daily net inflation has ticked up to 0.44%. $TUS emission was flat at 1.73%, despite the looting points system implementation which encourages mining.
However, it could be too early to tell the points impact since I'm using averages. Burning from breeding has declined by 8 bps. Breeding activity is actually healthy though (see egg chart below), it just hasn't kept up with inflation.
B. $TUS holder count (players) continues to grow at 1.0%+ daily rate which is good.
C. Crab population continues to grow faster than players at 1.7% per day, so expect crab prices to continue to decline or at least remain flat.
Read 18 tweets
Mar 12
1/ As promised, a summarized comparison of @PlayCrabada and @AxieInfinity.

In this thread I will cover gameplay, tokenomics, ROI impact and the teams.

This is my high level view and is not meant to be a comprehensive coverage.
2/ Gameplay: The focus here is active vs. idle gameplay. I have shared my thoughts of why I think idle gameplay is an important aspect of a game economy before ().
3/ Idle games increase their total addressable market (TAM) size by attracting players who don’t have the time to be active or time to deal with scholarships.
Read 21 tweets
Feb 28
As promised, I've pulled together the latest on the @PlayCrabada economy as well as an ROI guide. To start, let's look at $TUS inflation:

A) Net inflation is flat at 0.5% compared to 2/20. Both emission and breeding are steady (surprisingly)
B) Marketplace activity has declined
B) Offset by growth in daily tavern fees. This impacts price of $TUS (lower new buyers) as well as price of $CRA (lower revenue to the game)
C) TUS holder count grows, but at a slower pace. I included a new measurement, TUS per Holder, this has increased, not a great sign.
D) The crab population has increased faster than the user population, putting pressure on crab prices. Crab/Holder is at highest level.
E) Runway is at 31 days, we've been here before. I would like it to not go much below this level.
Read 15 tweets
Feb 21
A thread on how I'm thinking about #P2E economics:

Initially, I agreed with others who called it "ponzieconomics." However, after playing a few games my view has changed...
Blockchain tech and decentralization has enabled a complete restructuring of the go to market function of games and re-oriented the value accrual to different stakeholders.
The key here is realizing the amount of money gaming studios spend on marketing and distributing a game which is sometimes much larger than the $ spent producing the game:
Read 18 tweets
Feb 21
Quick update on @PlayCrabada's $TUS: Supply increased because of lower breeding (A/B), daily inflation ticked up to 0.5% (C). This could be due to the meta shift, loss of market share to new games and the uncertain macro picture of risk assets.
The lower $TUS daily emission is interesting because it peaked at 11.3 million in 2/15 and has since declined despite crab count increasing by ~2-3 thousand. This means that players are generating lower ROI on crabs (parking them in Tavern, or looting/mining is more balanced).
On the bright side, TUS holder count continues to grow (D). Now that the TUS price is lower, some breeders might start breeding more vs. selling TUS. Time will tell.

I'll follow up with crab population analysis and ROI breakdowns later this week. #P2E
Read 4 tweets
Feb 12
The market is doing its thing. The coming upgrade makes Primes and Gems appealing because they can loot Bulks. There's so many Bulks, owning the opposing faction is like all you can loot buffet!

So, the prices of Primes/Gems skyrocketed leading to increased breeding. However...
The highlighted section above shows Primes and Gems representing an increased portion of the population, but Bulks are holding their ground at 53% which implies continued robust breeding of the class, but at a slower pace than Primes/Gems.

This is interesting...👇
The market is telling us that the Bulks are still relevant, and this is why: there's only 23% chance of getting looted by pure Primes/Gems, and even then, miner's revenge kicks in. Side note, look how 92% of Bulks are pure! crazy. Let's run some projections 👇
Read 7 tweets

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