Why is #Ukraine struggling around #Popasna? Part of the answer to that question has to do with available troops, supplies, casualties and exhaustion. However, one often overlooked element that is working for the #Russian's and against the #Ukrainian's, is the area's topography.
#Popasna sits directly on a hill over 700ft/210m higher than Soledar. This gives #Russian forces a massive advantage in regards to artillery, observation and firing positions, since they can shoot down into #UAF trenches/defenses. It also means they are attacking downhill.
A close look at terrain gained around #Popasna reveals much of the terrain #Russia has captured has been from high ground, headed into lower elevations. In fact, current RUAF advances almost appear to specifically be riding the high ground in order to maximize this advantage.
Once Popasna fell, #Russian forces were able to use their newly acquired high ground to put maximum pressure on #Ukrainian units in nearby towns while exposing themselves very little or none at all. #RUAF has used unrelenting indirect fire weapons on exposed, undermanned #UAF.
#Ukrainians are hindered by the need to defend wide swaths of territory at the same time & have chosen to fall back on more defensible terrain. Of course, elevation is not the only element for battlefield success but it plays a factor in the rapid #RUAF gains seen in this area.

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More from @AggregateOsint

May 21
#Donetsk Axis - #Russian forces have captured the town of Novoselivka, Donetsk Oblast. The capture of this town will allow #Russian forces to assault the town of Niu-York immediately to the N. Multiple pro-Russian accounts have reported #RUAF in Niu-York but that is inaccurate. ImageImage
Niu-York is a strategically critical, but tactically difficult city for #Ukraine to defend. If #Russia can capture the city it will open the door to bypassing #Ukrainian defenses to the E. #Russia has made no progress towards Toretsk in 3 months & is looking for a new approach. Image
Unfortunately for #Ukraine, Niu-York is positioned in a valley over 100m/300ft lower than the surrounding area. This will make the #UAF defense of the city very challenging. #Russian forces will have many advantages like better observation, cover and spotting for artillery. Image
Read 4 tweets
May 21
#Izyum Axis - #Russia forces have captured a 10km wide area N of the Donets River and E of Izyum. #RUAF has captured the Oskil Dam, Synychyne & Yaremivka. Yaremivka was likely captured days ago as #RUAF was attempting a bridging action over the river to Studenok yesterday. ImageImage
This also throws the status of Studenok into doubt as its unlikely (but not impossible) that #Russia attempted a contested crossing of the Donets River. #Ukrainian troops have likely retreated to the S w/ the contingent at the Dam holding out for over two weeks w/ little support. Image
While this may appear to be a rapid advance (over 10km) by the #Russian forces, in reality #Ukrainian troops have been withdrawing their troops S of the Donets for 2 weeks now. Many of these advances likely took place over several days but are just now being reported.
Read 4 tweets
May 21
#Severodonestk - #Russian forces have destroyed the critical Pavlograd Bridge/Павлоградський Міст leading from the city to Lysychans'k/Лисичанськ. This was the main supply line from Severodonetsk across the Donets river and it’s loss could make resupply of the city impossible. Image
4 bridges lead to #Severodonetsk from the west side of the Donets River. 1 has been destroyed and out of operation for years. #Russia destroyed the middle bridge today and the other 2 bridges are being pressured by #RUAF. #Ukraine may already be unable to use the N & S bridges. ImageImage
If #Ukraine is unable to resupply the troops in #Severodonestk, 🇺🇦 may choose to abandon the city vice endure a #Mariupol style siege. Time will tell what the #UAF decides to do, but many combat hardened #UAF veterans are defending the city, who would not be easily replaced.
Read 4 tweets
May 21
#Oskil Update - it appears that rumors of #Ukrainian forces still at the Oskil Dam were true & in the last 2 days retreated S and rejoined the main #Ukrainian front lines. #Russia sources posted this video today of the dam, along with info saying that #UAF left recently to the S.
#Russians also claimed that retreating #Ukrainian troops planted explosives in the dam prior to retreating. However, based on the damage to the entire dam structure, it appears to have been under heavy shelling for days. This is the more likely cause. The dam is now stuck open. ImageImage
#Russian sources posted this info along with complaints that they were unable to trap the #Ukrainian troops or capture the dam intact. #UAF held the dam area for two weeks with #RUAF on 3 sides. They have now retreated S probably towards the Donets River on foot. Image
Read 4 tweets
May 21
#Lyman Update - #Russian forces have completed their capture of Novoselivka and the adjoining forest where #Ukrainian troops have been putting up fierce resistance. #RUAF is now assaulting Yarova w artillery, tanks and infantry. More info on possible Oskil pocket below.
#NASA FIRMS indicates huge fires in the forest N, NE & E of Yarova, where #Ukrainian troops harassed the movements of #Russian troops and dug defensive lines deep in the woods. #Russia likely resorted to heavy bombardment of #Ukrainian positions to force #UAF to retreat.
Now that the forest has been cleared and gains in Novoselivka and Drobysheve consolidated, #Russian forces have started storming Yarova to force #Ukrainian troops to retreat NW or across the Donets River. Once #RUAF consolidates gains N/NE of the Donets, they will assault #Lyman.
Read 6 tweets
May 21
#Kherson Axis - No confirmed change in terrain control along this axis today. #Russia & #Ukraine continue to fire upon each others positions, while #RUAF fired missiles and rockets at nearby towns. Explosions were recorded in Kherson, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, & Odesa Oblast.
#Russian military engineers have brought in excavation/construction equipment to construct a secondary defensive line along existing frontlines. This suggests that #RUAF is anticipating a #Ukrainian attack soon & that #Russia is not trying to expand this front in the near future.
Following a canceled April 27 Kherson Oblast referendum to create the Kherson People's Republic, the #Russian appointed leader of #Kherson Oblast has stated that #Russia will annex the region instead of creating it's own state and then petitioning to join the #Russian Federation.
Read 4 tweets

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